Get full access to Justified Posteriors at empiricrafting.substack.com/subscribe

This week, instead of reviewing a recent paper on AI, we go back to a 1993 classic: Michael Kremer’s “The O-Ring Theory of Economic Development.” It’s one of those papers that feels larger than its formal model. The setup is extremely simple: production consists of many tasks, and output depends on all of them going right. But the implications are broad…