The Real Estate News Brief: Inflation Dips, Midwest Attracts Attention, New Baby Boom?

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending January 14th, 2023… the good news about inflation, a few new potentially hot real estate markets, and the recent surge in U.S. population growth.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week, and good news about inflation. For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic, consumer prices were down. The Labor Department reports that the Consumer Price Index fell .1% in December. The decline brings the annual rate of inflation down from 7.1% to 6.5%. It was up as high as 9.1% last summer. The core rate of inflation is considered a more accurate gauge of inflation because it eliminates food and gas prices which can be volatile. That rate was down .3% to a core rate of 5.7%. (1)   The December reading is proof that inflation is subsiding, and is giving economists hope that the Federal Reserve will back off on the rate hike gas pedal. Senior economist Dean Baker at the Center for Economic and Policy Research says: “It’s time for the Fed to declare victory and stop the rate hikes!”   But in general, economists don’t think that will happen. Instead, they are predicting the Fed will go easy on the rate hikes with a quarter point hike at their meeting on February 1st, and possibly another quarter point hike in March. That would bring the Federal Funds rate to a range of 4.75% to 5%. What happens next might be too far off to predict, but economists at the CME Group are forecasting a pause followed by a half point rate cut later this year. (2)   The job market continues to show strength. New claims for unemployment benefits were down last week to 205,000. That’s a 1,000 claim drop from the week before. Wall Street economists had expected a 10,000 claim increase. There were also 63,000 fewer continuing claims for a total of 1.63 million people collecting unemployment benefits. (3)   Consumers are feeling much more confident about the economy. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped from 59.7 to 64.6 in December. That’s still far from a peak of 88.3 in April of 2021, but it’s a big improvement over recent levels. (4)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates swung lower last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was down 15 basis points to 6.33%. The 15-year was down 21 points to 5.52%. (5) And they could be heading lower. Economist Nadia Evangelou of the National Association of Realtors believes the 30-year will dip below 6% in the near future, and will likely stabilize in the 5% range for the rest of the year. (6)   In other news making headlines…   Rent Growth Is Slowing Down   Renters are expected to gain some bargaining power in 2023 as rent growth slows, and the vacancy rate rises. According to ApartmentList, the national median rent growth was 3.8% last year, and it’s  expected to slow further this year. The report shows that 90 of the nation’s 100 largest cities saw an end-of-the-year decline for apartment rents with a vacancy rate of 5.9%. (7)   But not all markets are created equal. The Sun Belt markets have experienced phenomenal growth over the past few years. According to some analysts, they may have hit a growth peak, with cities like Tampa and Tucson gaining almost 40% in rent growth. Although demand is still driving those markets, Apartment List expects more affordable cities in the Midwest to attract attention this year. It says that during the last six months, the top three cities for growth were the Midwestern cities of Indianapolis, St. Louis, and Oklahoma City.   North Texas Popularity   Universal Studios is also recognizing North Texas as a strong growth market, with the announcement of a new theme park. It plans on building a 97-acre theme park in Frisco, Texas, where the population has almost doubled from 117,000 in 2010 to more than 200,000 in 2020. Frisco Mayor Jeff Cheney said in a statement: “Frisco is one of the fastest growing cities in the U.S. and has been recognized as a great place to plant professional roots and raise a family.” (8)   Frisco is part of an area north of Dallas that is attracting technology companies, including several large chip-making facilities. That’s creating tens of thousands of jobs, and a strong demand for housing. This is why we started our Texas Single Family Rental Fund – to help investors capitalize on the growth in this area. If you want to find out more about that, go to GrowDevelopments.com.   Post-Pandemic Baby Boom   U.S. population growth rebounded during the last two years. According to Census Bureau data, it hit an historically low birth rate of .16% between 2020 and 2021. And then it went into overdrive, and jumped to .38% from 2021 to 2022. That growth spurt added about 1.25 million people to the population roster for a total of 333 million.    Florida was the fastest growing state with a growth rate of 1.91%. It also had the second largest numerical increase of 416,000. Texas was first on that list with about 470,000 more people. Both Texas and California have the largest populations in the nation with more than 30 million people each.   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!   You can also join RealWealth for free at newsforinvestors.com to learn more about how you can build generational wealth with real estate.   Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.     Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-softens-at-the-end-of-2022-and-clears-path-for-slower-fed-rate-hikes-11673530439?mod=economic-report   2 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/12/time-for-the-fed-to-declare-victory-on-inflation-not-yet.html   3 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-show-no-spike-in-layoffs-11673531088?mod=economic-report   4 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-consumer-sentiment-jumps-to-nine-month-high-as-high-inflation-ebbs-11673622868?mod=economy-politics   5 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   6 - https://www.nar.realtor/magazine/real-estate-news/economist-mortgage-rates-will-dip-below-6-soon   7 - https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/multifamily/rental-rates-cooling-in-2023-the-midwest-surprises-117053   8 - https://www.bisnow.com/dallas-ft-worth/news/commercial-real-estate/a-universal-studios-theme-park-is-headed-for-north-texas-117148   9 - https://eyeonhousing.org/2023/01/u-s-population-growth-rate-rebounds-in-2022/