The Real Estate News Brief: Inflation Flip-Flop, Investor Purchase Activity, Big Landlords Gobbling Up SFRs

I n this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending February 25th, 2023... the latest disappointing report on inflation, a Q4 report on investor home-buying activity, and a new prediction for institutional ownership of single-family rentals.   Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review.   Economic News   We begin with economic news from this past week and a report that inflation remains stubbornly high. According to the Personal Consumption Expenditures index or PCE, the cost of goods and services rose .6% in January. That’s the largest increase since last summer, and raises the annual rate from 5.3% to 5.4%. The core rate, which excludes food and fuel, was also up .6% and raises the annual core rate of inflation from 4.6% to 4.7%. The disappointing results follow two other hot inflation reports for January. It’s not clear if this is just a blip in the battle against inflation or a change of course, but it does suggest that the Federal Reserve may keep its foot on the rate hike gas pedal. (1)   The next meeting of the Federal Reserve Board is March 21st and 22nd, so a lot can happen between now and then. Fed officials raised the rate a quarter point during their February meeting to a range of 4.5 to 4.75%. The minutes show there’s unanimous support for continued rate hikes although some Fed officials believe the economic risks have become more balanced and not just focused on inflation. A few members suggested the need for a half point rate hike to speed up the Fed’s inflation-reducing strategy but it wasn’t written into the minutes as an effort supported by all members. (2) (3)   Several of the regional Fed Presidents also spoke out last week, including Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester. She said last Friday that interest rates may need to move higher to curb inflation but she’s still optimistic that it can be done without triggering a recession. (4)   And it’s “so far so good” for the job market. U.S. jobless claims were lower last week by about 3,000 to a total of 192,000. That’s below the forecast and a sign of strength for the job market. (5)   On to the housing market…   New home sales were up 7.2% in January thanks to strong sales in the South. They were up 17.1% in the Southern region and down everywhere else. The Northeast had the biggest drop of 19.4%. U.S. year-over-year sales are still down 19.4%. (6)   Existing home sales were also higher in the South and the West, but they were down overall by .7%. As reported by MarketWatch, the amount of sales activity was the lowest since October of 2010. Year-over-year, they were down 36.9%. (7)   Mortgage Rates   Mortgage rates floated higher last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage was up 18 basis points to 6.5%. The 15-year was up 25 points to 5.76%. Freddie also said that as average rates rise, there may be a big difference in rates from lender to lender so it’s best to shop around. (8)   In other news making headlines…   Real Estate Investor Activity Down Almost 50% in Q4   It isn’t just retail home buyers who are sitting on the housing market sidelines. Many investors are too. A new Redfin report shows that investor home purchases were down 46% year-over-year in the fourth quarter, but the share of homes bought by investors is about the same. It slid from 19% to 18% for the year. (9)   Redfin says that investors had piled into the market in 2021 because of low mortgage rates and high demand for housing. But many are now waiting for rates and prices to come down. Florida agent Elena Fleck says: “A lot of investors are on hold because they still see home prices declining.” She says: “The investors who are in the market are selective and aggressive. Many of them are only offering around 60% of the asking price since it’s so difficult to make a profit when flipping homes right now.”   Investor activity varies from market to market. The report says investors activity is down the most in pandemic boomtowns like Phoenix and Las Vegas. But there are many markets where the investor share of purchased homes is higher, including Miami, Jacksonville, Atlanta, and Charlotte.    Will Institutional Investors Own 40% of Single-Family Rentals by 2030?   The institutional ownership of single-family rentals could mushroom over the next several years. According to an analysis by MetLife Investment Management, their share was about 5% early last year, and by 2030, it could be more than 40%. That’s about 7.6 million homes controlled by rental portfolio giants like Tricon Residential, Progress Residential, American Homes 4 Rent, and Invitation Homes. (10)   Representative Ro Khanna from California authored the “Stop Wall Street Landlords Act of 2022.” If it passes, it would provide disincentives for institutional investors such as an excise tax on the sale or transfer of a single-family home that’s equal to the price of the home. It would also eliminate deductions for mortgage interest, insurance, and depreciation. (11)   That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links, and join RealWealth if you’d like to know where it still makes sense to invest in single-family rentals. We’re offering several market tours over the next few months. You can join RealWealth and check out the tours at newsforinvestors.com.   And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review!    Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke.   Links:   1 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/inflation-jumps-in-early-2023-pce-shows-and-stays-stubbornly-high-e406552a?mod=economy-politics   2 - ​​https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-minutes-show-some-officials-thought-easier-financial-conditions-could-mean-tighter-monetary-policy-bf431e25?mod=federal-reserve   3 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/22/fed-minutes-february-2023-minutes-show-fed-members-resolved-to-keep-fighting-inflation.html   4 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/24/feds-mester-says-she-has-hope-that-inflation-can-be-brought-down-without-a-recession.html   5 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-jobless-claims-stay-firmly-below-200-000-for-6th-straight-week-2ccc7a46?mod=mw_latestnews&mod;=home-page   6 - ​​https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-new-home-sales-rise-by-7-2-despite-weakness-in-the-broader-sector-13f6dde4?mod=economic-report   7 - https://www.marketwatch.com/story/existing-home-sales-fall-for-the-12th-straight-month-in-january-lowest-since-2010-17a703ba?mod=economic-report   8 - https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms   9 - https://www.redfin.com/news/investor-home-purchases-q4-2022/   10 - https://www.cnbc.com/2023/02/21/how-wall-street-bought-single-family-homes-and-put-them-up-for-rent.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c∥=realestate   11 - https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/9246?s=1&r;=2