The Real Estate News Brief: Inflation Slows, GDP Results for Q1, Year-Over-Year Rent Growth

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending July 2nd, 2022... why inflation appears to be slowing, what the GDP says about a potential recession, and the latest reports on rent growth. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week. The rate of inflation appears to have slowed a bit. The Personal Consumption Index, or PCI, was up .6% in May with a yearly rate that was unchanged at 6.3%, but the core rate was down slightly. The core rate doesn’t include prices for food or fuel, and the yearly rate for that dropped from 4.9% in April to 4.7% in May. The Federal Reserve feels the PCI is more accurate than the Consumer Price Index or CPI, because the PCI factors in more variables, such as changes in consumer behavior. (1) It’s now official. The economy shrank 1.6% in the first quarter, and the Atlanta Federal Reserve is forecasting a negative reading for the second quarter as well. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow tracker indicates that the economy shrank 1% in Q2. Two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth is interpreted as a recession. But MarketWatch reports that some economists are forecasting growth in the second quarter. We won’t have the official reading until the end of this month. (2)(3) As concerns mount about a long-lasting recession, there are now predictions that the Fed will be cutting rates next year, not raising them. CNBC reports that most analysts expect the Fed to continue hiking rates until the end of “next” year, but global chief economist at UniCredit, Erik Nielsen, told CNBC: “Can you really hike interest rates into a recession even if inflation is high? That would be unusual.” Michael Yoshikama of Destination Wealth Management also feels that the Fed will reverse its course and cut rates by the end of “this” year. The predictions are all over the map however. The president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Loretta Mester, expects growth to slow but doesn’t expect to see a recession. Ark Invest CEO, Cathie Wood, told CNBC that the U.S. is already in a recession. (4) Initial jobless claims were down by about 2,000 last week, to a total of 231,000, but the four-week average is slightly higher. Continuing claims have continued to fall and are now back down to pre-pandemic levels. MarketWatch economists feel that layoffs may remain low because companies have already had a tough time filling positions, and won’t want to let anyone go. (5) Pending home sales have rebounded somewhat. The National Association of Realtors says they were up .7% in May after six months of declines. But there are still challenges ahead for the housing market. NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun says: “Despite a small gain in pending sales from the prior month, the housing market is clearly undergoing a transition.” He says: “Contract signings are down sizably from a year ago because of much higher mortgage rates.” Year-over-year, they are down 13.6%. (6) Meantime, home prices are up again. The S&P; CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city index shows a 21.2% year-over-year increase in April. That’s up from 21.1% in March. The Federal Housing Finance Agency reports a slightly slower rate of growth. It says that home price growth is up 18.8% year-over-year. (7) Construction spending was down slightly in May, but remained the same for new single-family and multi-family homes. (8) And consumer confidence hit a 16-month low in June, due to concerns about the economy, high prices, and the possibility of a recession. (9) Mortgage Rates The rise in mortgage rates took a break last week. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 11 basis points to 5.7%. The 15-year dropped 9 points to 4.83%. (10) In other news making headlines… Homebuyers Lose Purchasing Power A new study shows that a typical homebuyer has lost more than $100,000 in purchasing power because of high interest rates. Redfin says that a homebuyer that can afford $2,500 a month in mortgage payments can only buy a home worth about $400,000 right now, or $120,000 less than they could at the end of last year. For someone who can afford $3,500 a month, the budget cut is more like $165,000. (11) Redfin’s chief economist Daryl Fairweather says: “Many house hunters now need to consider smaller homes – perhaps farther from their ideal neighborhood – or stick to renting if they’re priced out of the market altogether.” Rent Growth Hot, but Slowing Rents continue to rise across the country, but the pace is slowing down. The latest report from CoreLogic shows that single-family rents continue to move higher. The year-over-year rate in April was 14%. That’s more than double what it was in April of last year. (12) And CoreLogic economist, Molly Boesel, doesn’t see it slowing down anytime soon. She says: “We expect single-family rent growth to continue to increase at a rapid pace throughout 2022.” A new report from “Apartment List” shows similar rent growth for apartments. The year-over-year increase for July is 14.1% but the report says that apartment rent growth is slowing down. It was 17.8% year-over-year at the beginning of the year. (13) That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. You can also find out more about how changes in the economy are impacting the real estate market by listening to one of my recent webinars. It’s called “The Changing Tides of 2022: How to Prepare as a Real Estate investor.” You’ll find the webinar under the “Learn” tab on our website at newsforinvestors.com. Thanks for listening! And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-pce-inflation-and-consumer-spending-11656591128?mod=economic-report 2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-a-wrap-u-s-first-quarter-gdp-shrank-1-6-the-second-quarter-isnt-looking-much-better-11656506598?mod=federal-reserve 3 -https://www.fastcompany.com/90766283/recession-fed-gdp-tracker-atlanta 4 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/01/fed-could-cut-interest-rates-in-2023-analysts-say-after-rate-hikes-this-year.html 5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/jobless-claims-inch-lower-in-latest-week-11656592825?mod=economic-report 6 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-pending-home-sales-rebound-in-may-reversing-a-six-month-decline-11656338457?mod=economic-report 7 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/home-price-growth-continues-slows-in-april-case-shiller-says-11656422745?mod=bnbh_mwarticle 8 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-construction-spending-fell-marginally-in-may-271656686288?mod=search_headline 9 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-confidence-falls-to-16-month-low-on-worries-about-inflation-and-economy-11656425418?mod=economic-report 10 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 11 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/28/rising-interest-rates-cost-typical-homebuyers-16-percent-of-purchasing-power.html 12 -https://www.corelogic.com/intelligence/april-jump-in-us-rent-price-growth-puts-pressure-on-inflation-corelogic-reports/ 13 -https://www.apartmentlist.com/research/national-rent-data