The Real Estate News Brief: Inflation’s 40-Year High, Single-Family Rental Demand, Montana Migration

In this Real Estate News Brief for the week ending June 11th, 2022... inflation hits a 40-year high, demand grows for single family rentals, and a popular TV show inspires a Montana migration. Hi, I'm Kathy Fettke and this is Real Estate News for Investors. If you like our podcast, please subscribe and leave us a review. Economic News We begin with economic news from this past week, and a report that shows the highest rate of inflation since 1981. The Consumer Price Index was up 1% in May to an annual rate of 8.6%. It was 8.3% last month. The increase is mostly due to rising gas and food prices. If you strip those out, the core rate was up .6% to an annual rate of 6%, which was actually down slightly from 6.2%. (1) The report is setting off alarm bells. Financial experts are now anticipating a 75 basis point rate hike at the next Fed meeting in June, and further hikes in July and September. The talk so far has been more along the lines of two 50 basis point hikes in June and July, but as one wealth advisor told CNBC, this report was a “doozy.” Tom Graff of Facet Wealth says: “The most concerning part of this report was its breadth. The monthly number wasn’t driven by a few items. Most of the major categories actually accelerated price increases month-over-month.” (2) As inflation fears grow, so do worries about recession. Now the Atlanta Fed is lowering its forecast for the second quarter from 1.3% to a gain of just .9%. (3) It’s interesting to note that real estate accounted for almost 17% of the GDP last year. The National Association of Realtors says it was 16.9% of the GDP or about $3.9 billion. That’s about $113,000 in total economic impact for each home sale. (4) The Memorial Day weekend may have contributed to a jump in jobless claims. MarketWatch says they were up 27,000 to a five-month high of 229,000. It calls them seasonal “quirks” due to the holiday and not layoffs. (5) Mortgage Rates After idling for a few weeks, the mortgage rate seesaw continues. Freddie Mac says the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 14 basis points higher last week to 5.23%. The 15-year was up 6 points to 4.38%. (6) The average contracted rate of interest was higher. The Mortgage Bankers Association says the 30-year went from 5.33% to 5.40%. That corresponded to a 7% drop in purchase applications. Refinance loans were also down 6%. The MBA says mortgage demand dropped to its lowest level in 22 years. (7) Freddie Mac’s deputy chief economist Len Kiefer said in a tweet that the “U.S. housing market is at the beginning stages of the most significant contraction in activity since 2006.” He said: “It hasn’t shown up in many data series yet, but mortgage applications are pointing to a large decline over the summer.” He also clarified that he expects home sales to slow down quite a bit over the summer, but doesn’t expect them to “grind to a complete halt.” (8) In other news making headlines... Pessimism Among Would-Be Homebuyers A new survey supports the idea of slower sales this summer. Fannie Mae’s Home Purchasing Sentiment Index shows that almost 80% of the participants feel it’s a bad time to buy a home right now. Almost as many people feel that mortgage rates will continue to march higher over the next year. (9) Fannie Mae expects a mild recession next year, but the agency says that inflation and rapidly rising short term interest rates could push us into a recession much sooner. Demand for Single-Family Rentals Big landlords are responding to a demand for single-family rentals. The National Association of Home Builders says that builders broke ground on 13,000 single-family rentals in the first quarter. That’s a 63% increase from the first quarter of last year. (10) American Homes 4 Rent CEO, David Singelyn, told CNBC: “There are not enough quality homes for the number of American families.” He says the quantity of inquiries, showings, and applications for new rental homes is “two to three times greater today than it was two years ago before the pandemic.” TV Shows Drives Newcomers to Montana Montana is getting a lot of attention as a great place to live, thanks to Kevin Costner’s TV show “Yellowstone.” The show features the Dutton family and ranch-style living on large stretches of land with sweeping views of mountains and prairies. (11) Beartooth investment Group founder, Robert Keith, says his company has received influx of inquiries from all sorts of wealthy families who want to buy a ranch. He says: “They are looking to own really amazing large properties” like you see in the TV show. The show debuted in 2018 and has already pumped tens of millions of dollars into the Montana economy, but long-time Montana residents are worried it’s attracting too many new residents and driving up home prices. The median home price was $500,000 before the pandemic. It’s now almost $750,000. That’s it for today. Check the show notes for links. And please remember to hit the subscribe button, and leave a review! If you’re worried about inflation, real estate is a good way to safeguard your money. Real estate values don’t fluctuate as wildly as stocks, and your rental income will carry you through any sort of a downturn. You can find out more about single-family rental investing at newsforinvestors.com. Join for free, and get access to experienced investment counselors, property teams, lenders, and more. Thanks for listening. I'm Kathy Fettke. Links: 1 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/coming-up-consumer-price-index-for-may-11654862886?mod=home-page 2 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/catastrophically-bad-inflation-report-is-boosting-chances-of-a-75-basis-point-hike-in-june-or-july-11654876860?mod=MW_article_top_stories 3 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/07/fed-gdp-tracker-shows-the-economy-could-be-on-the-brink-of-a-recession.html 4 -https://cdn.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2022-state-economic-impact-report-us-04-28-2022.pdf 5 -https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-unemployment-claims-jump-27-000-to-five-month-high-of-229-000-11654778599?mod=economic-report 6 -https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms 7 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/08/mortgage-demand-falls-to-the-lowest-level-in-22-years.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c∥=realestate 8 -https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/the-u-s-housing-market-is-at-the-beginning-stages-of-the-most-significant-contraction-in-activity-since-2006/ 9 -https://www.housingwire.com/articles/almost-80-believe-its-a-bad-time-to-buy-property/ 10 -https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/10/big-landlords-jump-into-the-homebuilding-as-demand-for-single-family-rentals-surges.html?__source=realestate%7cnews%7c∥=realestate 11 -https://magazine.realtor/daily-news/2022/06/08/hit-tv-show-yellowstone-prompts-more-moves-to-montana