30 The Systematic Investor Series – April 7th, 2019

Is it wise to adjust position-size according to recent volatility? Can back-testing a Trend Following strategy end up as just being a form of curve-fitting? We discuss the merits of Long-Term evidence over Recency Bias, the importance of Sharpe Ratios, the significance of price gaps, and whether leverage is a necessity for all CTAs. You will hear our thoughts on the idea of risking 1% per trade and how diversification affects this, the pros and cons of a crowded Trend Following market, and we touch on the topic of whether or not a trade can be held for too long.

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Episode Summary

0:00 - Intro

1:45 - Review of last week’s episode with Jesse Felder

6:45 - Weekly review

11:00 - Top tweets

32:20 - Question 1: John; Are you always fully invested?

41:00 - Question 2: John; Across all trades, how much total risk is there in a TF system?

46:30 - Questions 3/4/5/6: Woody; What are the pros and cons of using managed futures in ETFs vs mutual funds vs other vehicles? Will liquid alts suffer from a big bank crisis? Do you need leverage and concentrated positions to get the benefits of managed futures? Is there a disadvantage of using 'blue chip' managed futures mutual funds?

1:07:30 - Question 7: Brian; Why do investors use Sharpe ratios?

1:15:50 - Question 8: Sam; What are your thoughts on price gaps?

1:19:30 - Questions 9/10: Andrew; Do you use Trend Following signals to manage your cash positions? How does DUNN use swaps in relation to fees?

1:26:50 - Question 11: Sam; Is there a time period that is too long-term for a trade?

1:31:00 - Performance recap

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