With the impeachment of Donald Trump behind us, the most vulnerable Republican senators will now have to explain to their constituents why they voted to conceal evidence of Trump’s guilt, and let him off the hook, and contend with the fact that Mitt Romney, the former leader of their party, refused to participate in the coverup. But they’ll only face these questions if the rest of us keep the public eye trained on Trump’s corruption. Matthew Miller rejoins host Brian Beutler to discuss how what comes next matters just as much as what we’ve just been through.

To Be Continued

Politix is a weekly podcast about the 2024 election from Brian Beutler, Matthew Yglesias, and some occasional guests. We’ll have some good-faith disagreement, some points of consensus, and an overall effort to focus on what’s really at stake in November. Subscribe for new episodes each Wednesday and listen wherever you get your podcasts. 

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News Commentary

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With Matt back from vacation, he and Brian discuss a bunch of important developments in the news, and zoom out to assess whether it’s really changed race between Joe Biden and Donald Trump: * Has polling data improved enough to make Biden the favorite to win? * Have developments like Biden’s patient victory in the fight over Ukraine aid, careful management of hostilities between Israel and Iran, and solid economic news contributed to the uptick? * Is Trump’s legal jeopardy/farting finally taking a toll on his numbers? Then, paid subscribers hear an assessment of the candidates’ upside or downside potential. Is Biden poised to benefit from a booming economy as inflation memories recede? Does Donald Trump have any way to improve his standing (as opposed to dragging Biden down)? Will  prediction that Biden would pull ahead by late April then widen his lead over the summer be vindicated? We hope you enjoy the conversation, and if you’d like to listen to the whole thing, you can upgrade to paid for a private feed that gets you access to the complete Politix archive and all future episodes.  Further reading: * Brian on how a subset of reflexive critics, including progressives, have become economy deniers, and are holding Biden’s approval polling down.  * Matt on how negativity is making everyone miserable. * Simon Rosenberg’s prediction, from Greg Sargent’s podcast.

Is The Biden Campaign's Theory Of The Election Panning Out?

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With Matt on vacation this week, Brian hosts a conversation with Rebecca Roiphe, a New York Law School professor and former Manhattan prosecutor who enforced the very laws Donald Trump is charged with breaking in his first criminal trial. They discuss: * Why legal commentators who criticized District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s theory of the case were factually wrong about the laws at issue and how they are applied; * The importance of enforcing these laws, whether violators represent big businesses or small businesses, and whether their motives were financial, political, personal, or a combination thereof; * Whether it would’ve been a breach of duty for Bragg not to bring charges in this case. Then, paid subscribers hear a more abstract conversation about legal discourse and ethics. Why were so many legal and media elites, including many Trump critics, so eager to line up against Bragg, even as they lacked the subject-matter expertise to know whether Bragg had exceeded his mandate? Even if Bragg had gone fishing for a reason to try Trump on felony charges, would that be a violation of his ethical obligations or his oath of office? Should Trump’s status as an exceptionally high-profile political leader insulate him in any way from accountability for lower-tier felonies, even if law-enforcement officers understand him to be a serial scofflaw? We hope you enjoy the conversation, and if you’d like to listen to the whole thing, you can upgrade to paid for a private feed that gets you access to the complete Politix archive and all future episodes.  Correction: Rebecca is a professor at New York Law School, not a New York University law school professor. Brian regrets the error. Further reading: * Brian on why Joe Biden should break his vow of silence and begin commenting on the hush-money case.  * Mark Joseph Stern on why he was wrong, initially, to be skeptical of Alvin Bragg’s case and what made him come around. * There’s a new Stormy Daniels documentary on Peacock.

Alvin Bragg's Liberal Critics Are Wrong

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This week on Politix, Matt and Brian step back from the news cycle to examine Donald Trump’s policy agenda, and the weird extent to which he’s getting a pass on toxic ideas: * His plan for an across the board 10 percent tariff would make Americans pay more for virtually everything, including groceries; * A big immigration crackdown like the one he’s promised would raise prices further; * But since these ideas are coded as pro American-worker, he faces little pushback for the terrible consequences they’d entail. Then, paid subscribers get a deeper look at whether the threat of these consequences will eventually catch up with Trump, and hear an extended analogy between the politics of tariffs (which would cause more hardship) and the long saga of Medicare for all. Why did Medicare for all lose popularity over time? Might the same thing happen to Trump’s plan to raise banana and coffee prices? And if the key to selling policy is to cloak it in populist language (tariffs, Medicare) could Biden shake up the race by updating his agenda with ideas that unite the Democratic base and appeal to the public more broadly? We hope you’ll upgrade to paid so you can enjoy the whole episode, especially if you’re listening from the White House or Biden campaign headquarters!  Further reading: * Matt on House Republicans’ (bad) plan for America.  * Brian with a reminder that the 2024 election is about real things. * CAP: “Trump’s Tariff Would Cost the Typical American Household Roughly $1,500 Each Year.”

Donald Trump's Plan To Make You Poorer

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This week on Politix, Brian returns from a long weekend in real America (western Mexico) with some fresh insight on how Trump-stalgia works. He and Matt discuss: * Why fewer people disapprove of Trump lately and why more people seemingly think his sharpest critics have overstated their case; * How lag effects (the persistence of the pandemic and the overturning of Roe after Trump’s term ended) has insulated him from accountability; * Whether Trump’s unique responsibility for the loss of abortion rights and his status as a Florida resident mean this issue will eventually catch up with him. Then, we offer paid subscribers an in-depth look at how public opinion on abortion has changed in the past two years, even if it hasn’t (yet) dragged Trump down. We examine the roles paid and free media might play in making Trump synonymous with Dobbs, and think through ways both party leaders and activists could draw more public attention to abortion rights per se and Trump’s role in abolishing them. Do Democrats have a problem generating free media in general? And finally, a raging debate over which kinds of beach-side resorts are best for aging but young-at-heart millennials. It was a clarifying discussion across the board, and if you’re interested in fleshing all that out we hope you’ll upgrade to paid, and enjoy the whole episode!  Further reading: * Matt on the new politics of abortion rights.  * Brian on the broader political implications of changing abortion opinion—what if public-opinion polling on high-salience issues just isn’t that useful? * How long can Trump hide from weighing in on the DeSantis abortion ban in his home state, and on whether Florida voters should pass a referendum guaranteeing abortion access?

Donald Trump Banned Abortion

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This week on Politix, Julian Sanchez joins Matt and Brian to discuss: * Donald Trump’s uncanny ability to evade justice; * Why a panel of New York appeals court judges let him mostly off the hook by staving off the seizure of his assets in his civil-fraud case; * What liberals and Democrats can do to make these civil verdicts a greater political liability for him. Then, paid subscribers get a lengthier debate over the merits of banning TikTok in the U.S. Are the privacy or propaganda concerns articulated by U.S. lawmakers valid? Is it hard-nosed realpolitik to engage in tit-for-tat social-media bans with China, or a naive own goal that will tarnish the example America’s open society sets for the world? Should we just be happy to see any major social media company lose its hold on American users, no matter the method? We hashed all of that out, and if you’d like to hear where we landed, upgrade to paid, and enjoy the whole episode!  Further reading: * Julian’s forthcoming Substack, Non-Content!  * Matt’s broad case against TikTok. * Brian on the liberal and right-wing psychologies driving Trump-impunity politics.

To Be Continued

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