Tracking Corona In Australia: Is a Lockdown Imminent?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vDUhJaU_z-s

In this video we look at the data and growth rates behind the corona virus in Australia and other countries and use it to predict where Australia will likely be in 2 weeks and if a lockdown is imminent.

Corona Virus Data

Corona Virus Exponential Growth Video

More on COVID-19 Growth

Transcription:

Ryan 0:00hi i'm ryan from onproperty and today is tuesday march 24 2020 and in today's episode i want to do something really differently usually i talk about property or personal finance today i want to talk about the Coronavirus and growth rates and how this actually may play out in australia and we can look at the data and look at what has happened in other countries and actually try to predict what is likely to happen in australia based on the measures that are being taken right now so this situation is obviously very overwhelming for a lot of people people are starting to lose their jobs the line and center link is extremely long which is sad to see a lot of my friends and people that i know have lost their jobs so it's a really hard time but what i found is that by looking at the data by understanding the growth rates by looking at other countries we can get some visibility into what this may look like in australia that helps reduce our overwhelm helps us to deal with the realistic situation and what actually may happen whether we may be going into lockdown or not i do think we will and we can just start to see this grab a hold of this information and then obviously make decisions for our own safety for the safety of our friends and loved ones in the community and also for our finances as well so we're going to be going through a bunch of numbers it's a bit nerdy today but hopefully you'll be able to see these trends understand the basics behind them which can give you a great view into the future and what may happen obviously i don't have a crystal ball so it's all speculation but i started knowing that this was going to be a really big issue in australia two weeks ago when i saw this video on COVID-19 and its exponential growth rate now two weeks ago in australia we were not in a bad situation people were laughing at me when i was talking about that we're going to need to go into lockdown soon they'll like you're just being anxious because i get anxious from time to time but i saw this and what this showed is that recorded COVID-19 cases outside mainland china every single day you're seeing a growth rate of about 15 to 25% every single day day after day now that is important the growth rate is extremely important because if you're starting with 100 people that means the next day you're going to have 25 new cases or 125 in total the day after that you're going to have 125 times by another 25% so 125 times by 1.25 which means you're going to end up with 156 new cases and then it goes up and up and up once you get started getting up to 1000 cases then you're getting you know you're getting 250 new cases every single day then you get up to 10,000 you're getting 2500 cases every single day so while it starts small that growth trend leads to big and devastating things as things progress i also saw this part of the video where they talk about australia versus japan at the time and that you could say that australia is doing 100 times better than japan however another way to look at this is actually that australia is one month behind japan and if you look at the growth rates of australia we are around that 25% mark so what we're going to do is look at this website which is well domino's dot info forward slash Coronavirus so i'll link up to this as well as this video down below and we can start to say the growth rate in australia new cases in australia as well as in the world so this shows the worl...