Trump Is Keynes on Steroids – Ep. 475

Recorded June 14, 2019

Gold: Up Today

When I recorded my podcast last Friday, I speculated that the price of gold might gap up the following Monday above $1350/oz., but that didn't happen because over the weekend Donald Trump managed to tweet out a face-saving way in which to not impose the tariffs on Mexican products that may have gone into effect on Monday.  The markets breathed a sigh of relief. So, instead of gapping up. the price of gold went the opposite direction and gapped down.

Fourteen Month High

This morning, we got the gap. It was on the last day of the week, not the first day of the week, but gold gapped higher on the day.  It was actually trading as high as $1356 or $1357 earlier this morning. That was a 52-week high in the price of gold.  In fact, it was a 14-month high.  We were actually up even before we got any economic data.  I think the high of the day might have been before the U.S stock market opened, when we were up about $15 or so.

The Key is Above $1350

What happened was, at 8:30, prior to the opening of the U.S. market, we got some economic data that was a bit stronger than expected.  And that stronger than expected data rained on the gold rally parade, sending the price of gold down on the day. It only closed down about a buck or so, but we did not hold above $1350.  Now the key level is not really $1350 - it's a little bit higher up, because the price of gold has been above $1350 twice before, I think, in the last six years, not counting today. But it wasn't able to hold. That's the key. We need to see the price of gold get higher.  Maybe close above $1375.

Gold the Favorite Trade for the Next 12-24 Months

There's a lot of noise.  That's where all the resistance has been coming in - between $1350 and $1375. But nonetheless, I think, as I said in the last podcast, the more times we knock on this resistance door the more likely it is that the door is going to open. In fact, the buyers continue to come in to the price of gold. I was listening to an interview with Paul Tudor Jones.  He was asked what his favorite trade was for the next 12-24 months, and his answer was gold. And a lot of smart people are now coming out and saying that, "Yeah, gold's going higher.  Gold's got everything going for it, and they want to be involved.  And of course I think if the price of gold does what I think it is going to do, and what some other smart people think it's going to do, well then the price of gold stocks are going to do even better.