Thursday 4th June 2026

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An exchange of fire in the Gulf aw a resurgence of risk-off sentiment in global markets, driving Brent crude back toward $98 a barrel and weakening the Australian dollar. The unfolding crisis highlights Warsh’s Dilemma ahead of his first Fed meeting: while much of the world downshifts, the U.S. economy remains strikingly insulated. As NAB’s Gavin Friend explains, the May U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing survey surged nine points which, alongside strong ADP employment figures and an elevated prices-paid component signals inflation prospects that the Fed can’t ignore. Closer to how GDP growth slowed yesterday, in part because of the trade deficit, but also sluggish household consumption. How that plays out in terms of future rate decisions will no doubt be discussed in Michelle Bullock’s appearance before a senate hearing today.

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