How can the United States make its economy more resilient not just to future economic shocks but the threat of such shocks from its geopolitical rivals? 

Arnab Datta has spent years working on this very question. In the immediate aftermath of the recent rare earths showdown between America and China, Datta and his colleagues at the Institute for Progress and Employ America published a new analysis titled How to Implement an Operation Warp Speed for Rare Earths.

China’s global dominance in rare earths, acquired over decades, allows it to “gain leverage in trade negotiations, retaliate against American restrictions, degrade American and allied technological capabilities, and potentially even to entrench its dominance in downstream rare earth-dependent manufacturing supply chains,” write Datta, Saif Khan, Tim Hwang, and Tim Fist. 

The scope of the report extends well beyond the specific threat of a shock to America’s supply of rare earths. It speaks to the very nature of the ongoing geopolitical dispute with China itself — and more broadly, to the question of how best to respond when a single country has taken steps for decades to distort the global market of a product that the entire world depends on.

Why did the United States fail to spot the emerging threat? How should it respond now — and in such a way that embraces core American economic values like competition and innovation? 

Related links: 

• How to Implement an Operation Warp Speed for Rare Earths
• Arnab’s work at Employ America
• Arnab’s work at the Institute for Progress

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What accounts for the astonishing streak of YIMBY wins this year — and which concessions, if any, should they consider offering to the NIMBYs? Should the center-left Abundance faction be trying to persuade conservatives and not just progressives? 

Do struggling places need more market-based solutions (high-skilled immigration, tax incentives for investing in low-income communities) or more straightforward redistribution and pubic investment (in infrastructure, job training, internet access)? 

Are liberals ceding too much ground to anti-immigrant sentiment? And should the most famous museums in the world stop hoarding their artwork? 

Live on stage at the Economic Innovation Group’s annual Power of Place Conference in Washington, DC, Cardiff spoke with Slow Boring author Matt Yglesias about these topics and more. 

Matt also reflects on how things have changed since his two books, The Rent is Too Damn High and One Billion Americans, were released. They close with their respective picks for best movie of 2025 and the likely winner of the NBA Finals. 

Related links: 

• Slow Boring 
• The Rent is Too Damn High
• One Billion Americans

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Jerusalem Demsas is one of Cardiff’s favorite econ and housing journalists, a previous New Bazaar guest, and now the founder and editor of The Argument, a new magazine dedicated to making “a positive, combative case for liberalism through sharp, well-argued opinion pieces, original reporting, and multimedia content that confronts the illiberal drift in our politics.” 

Jerusalem and Cardiff discuss: 

• Her meaning of liberalism
• How (if?) persuasion works 
• The politics of immigration and why it matters for the economy 
• Drawing lines vs reaching across them
• If Twitter really is “acid on community” 
• How to societally deal with short-form video addiction…
• … and how Jerusalem broke her own TikTok problem
• Why asking if something is cringe is itself the most cringe 

Finally, Jerusalem makes Cardiff look and feel super old when his reference to Reality Bites flies right by her. They close by reflecting on a hopeful trend. 

Related links: 

• The Argument
• On the Housing Crisis (Jerusalem’s book of essays)
• Ezra Klein’s podcast interview with Ta-Nehisi Coates

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The ROAD (Renewing Opportunity in the American Dream) to Housing Act is a bipartisan bill now making its way through Congress. 

And as today’s guest, Alex Armlovich, and his colleagues at the Niskanen Center argue, it is “the first comprehensive bid to tackle the roots of America’s‬ affordability crisis in a generation—it correctly‬‭ identifies, and takes initial steps to attack,‬ the interlocking barriers to housing abundance at every level.” 

Not only that, but the bill is “miraculously‬ bipartisan, and its negotiation and development exhibited a stunning, almost‬ anachronistic return to the old Senate tradition of depolarized collegiality and bipartisan‬ problem-solving.‬”

But before discussing the contents of the bill, Alex and Cardiff first talk about recent shifts in housing-policy alliances, the roots of the housing affordability and availability problem, housing experiments that have worked (and haven’t), the roll of the “Abundance” movement, and the genuine collective-action problems that housing advocates too often ignore. 

Then they break down the ROAD to Housing Act into three main buckets, going into detail on each: 1) Regulatory reform, 2) carrots and sticks, and 3) financing and funding. They also comment on what the bill would fix and what it wouldn’t, and its chances of becoming law. 

Finally, Alex and Cardiff reflect on housing, construction, and the nature of physical change in New York City, where both have spent the bulk of their adult lives. 

Related links: 

• Alex Armlovich about page (at Niskanen Center)
• Niskanen Center home page (where the upcoming ROAD to Housing Act analysis from Alex and his colleagues will appear)

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Rob Armstrong is the writer who first coined the acronym in The TACO Trade, which stands for Trump Always Chickens Out, in a column back in April. He wasn’t trying to go viral, much less have the acronym circulate throughout Wall Street and the media, much less have President Trump be asked about it. But that’s what happened. 

Armstrong is the Unhedged columnist and podcaster at the Financial Times. He also had a prior career at a hedge fund, which abruptly ended in the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He also has a PhD in philosophy, making him an unusual figure in the world of finance and economics journalism. The topics he writes about reflect this varied background. 

He and Cardiff reflect on the strangeness of coining a term that has such reverberations in a prominent national conversation, in this case the one surrounding President Trump’s tariff strategy, and whether the trade itself still applies. They also discuss how the feedback loops created by the acronym represent the fundamental nature of markets and the ways that societal narratives get around these days. 

But the main part of their chat is about US markets at the moment. Are they in a bubble? Why has there not been more of a negative effect from tariffs? And why has the US dollar fallen — and stayed fallen — while US stocks have returned to all-time highs just this week? What should we make of the horrific returns on long-term Treasuries this decade? And are higher interest rates truly here to stay? 

They also discuss Rob’s switch from working in finance to writing about it, and his recent column on Rene Girard and the mimetic rivalries that seem to define this political moment. Finally, they close with a surprising topic that Rob frequently also writes and speaks about: men’s fashion. 

Related links: 

• The Unhedged Newsletter (Rob Armstrong)
• Unhedged Podcast (Katie Martin with Rob)
• A Wealth of Common Sense (Ben Carlson)
• The Overshoot (Matt Klein)
• Feed Me (Emily Sundberg)
• Rob’s Life & Arts column
• Rob’s FT style column

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Will artificial intelligence help you do your job, or will it just straight-up do your job and leave you unemployable? 

Or will the future bring something else entirely — either between those two extremes or a world that we simply cannot imagine yet? And are we already starting to see signs of that future emerging? 

On this episode of The New Bazaar, Cardiff is joined by economist Nathan Goldschlag, Research Director at the Economic Innovation Group. Until recently, Nathan was Principal Economist at the U.S. Census Bureau’s Center for Economic Studies, where among other things he led research on the impact of technology, including AI, on the economy. Any worthwhile list of the world’s best economists on the subject of AI and work would have to include him. 

Cardiff and Nathan go through Nathan’s own research* and also filter out the megaton of nonsense on the topic and discuss some of the work done by others — research, essays, meanderings — that they think is actually worth sharing with listeners. 

They discuss, among other things: 

• How many businesses are now using AI to produce goods and services
• How have things changed since the launch and popularization of large language models
• Economic growth consequences of AI
• Whether “learn to code” is still good advice 
• The skills that still matter 
• To steer or not to steer the AI future

* Nathan’s research on AI was done in collaboration with a large team of researchers at the Center for Economic Studies at the U.S. Census Bureau including Emin Dinlersoz, Lucia Foster, David Beede, John Haltiwanger, Zach Kroff, Nikolas Zolas, Gary Anderson, and Eric Childress, along with program area partners including Kathryn Bonney, Cory Breaux, Cathy Buffington, and Keith Savage, as well as academic partners including Daron Acemoglu, Erik Brynjolfsson, Kristina McElheran, and Pascual Restrepo. 

Related links:

• The impact of AI on the workforce: Tasks versus jobs?
• Tracking Firm Use of AI in Real Time: A Snapshot from the Business Trends and Outlook Survey.
• The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI | NBER
• Answering the Call of Automation
• AI-2027.com
• Tyler Cowen - the #1 bottleneck to AI progress is humans
• Driverless trucks are coming and unions aren’t happy about it
• Generative AI at Work

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It's hard to think of a better guide to the ongoing US-China trade war than Evan Medeiros. A professor at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service and a lifelong scholar of the US-China relationship, Evan is also the co-author (with James Polk) of a new study, China's New Economic Weapons. Ever since the trade wars of the first Trump term, Chinese officials have been designing a new set of weapons to prepare them for another provocation from the US.

"Whereas in the past China mainly used basic trade or investment incentives and sanctions," the authors write, "today China is developing, testing, and deploying an entirely new collection of legal and regulatory tools for the explicit purpose of imposing targeted costs on companies and countries it sees as acting against its interests. In effect, these are precision-guided economic munitions, designed to inflict targeted and often substantial pain for political and geopolitical purposes." 

In other words, China has been preparing for exactly this moment. 

Cardiff and Evan discuss these new weapons, the long evolution of the US-China relationship, Evan's own experience in policymaking in the Obama White House, how both American and Chinese leaders have changed in the past decade, and the stakes of the current standoff.

Related links: 

• China's New Economic Weapons
• China and Russia Will Not Be Split
• The Delusion of Peak China
• Evan's Faculty Page

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Chad Bown is not just among the world’s most respected trade economists. He is also perhaps the single most careful tracker of real-time trade activity — which obviously makes him the best possible guest to explain the consequences of US President Donald Trump’s decision on April 2nd to impose new tariffs on China and many other countries in addition to further escalating the trade war with China just a week later while changing course (though not entirely) against the rest of the world.

Among the topics they chatted about: 

• The scale of the potential fallout 
• Where the tariffs stand now — including earlier tariffs already imposed
• The ongoing threat to the American auto industry 
• What it all means for the global liberal trading order 
• The worst-case and best-case scenarios 

…and more! 

Related links: 

• Chad Bown home page
• Trade Talks, Chad’s podcast 
• Chad’s (updated in real time) interview with Kai Ryssdal
• The trade war timeline

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Joining Cardiff for this episode is Jared Bernstein, who was most recently the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors for President Joe Biden following a long career in economic policy and public service. 

Jared shares with Cardiff his thoughts on the current economic moment, the achievements he was most proud of during the Biden years, and a few regrets. They also discuss: 

• How the econ policymaking sausage gets made
• Trade policy, globalization with allies, and concerns about protectionism
• Inflation challenges, including the impact of the American Rescue Plan
• Unions and worker bargaining power
• The housing supply crisis and the role of federal incentives for local reforms
• Immigration
• AI’s possible effects on labor and productivity 
• How an early musical career led Jared to economics

RELATED LINKS

• Jared’s Substack newsletter
• Jason Furman’s Foreign Affairs article
• Jared’s response to Furman
• 2024 Economic Report of the President
• EIG’s analysis on “Manufacturing jobs boom not reaching places hit by the China Shock”

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On today’s episode, Cardiff chats with his EIG colleagues Adam Ozimek, chief economist, and Connor O’Brien, research analyst, about the one policy that achieves all three of the following goals simultaneously: 

1. It massively boosts the rate of economic growth through its effects on entrepreneurship, innovation, and the creation of entire new industries.

1. It reduces inequality.

1. Not only does it cost the taxpayers nothing, it actually saves them huge sums of money. 

That policy is the expansion of high-skilled immigration, a subject that became a source of contentious debate within the American right not long after the 2024 election. As it happens, Adam and Connor are the co-authors (with John Lettieri) of a big new report, Exceptional by Design, which explains how to design a high-skilled immigration that will maximize its benefits for American workers, businesses, and communities. 

In this chat, the three discuss: 

• How bad thinking has led to bad policy 
• The surprisingly nuanced economics of high-skilled immigration
• Three myths about high-skilled immigration
• The flaws in the current system 
• A new policy vision to change it

The three close with a discussion of why high-skilled immigration carries so much promise for the United States in particular — and the enormous, self-inflicted damage of failing to capitalize on it.

RELATED LINK

• Exceptional by Design, by Adam Ozimek, Connor O’Brien, and John Lettieri 

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