For the Love of Data

008 For the Love of Politics – For the Love of Data


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History of Data in Politics

First off, 538’s podcast, What’s the Point did a great four part series on the data of politics that covered the history of politics from the late 1800s through the primaries. So please check out the above links for more context behind this. A brief history of data in politics shows the major ways candidates appealed to constituents progressed along this path:

  • Party Elite chose candidates.
  • Direct outreach – Candidates engage voters directly, including things like voting after parties offering booze to those who voted for a particular candidate.
  • TV – When TV came along, suddenly candidates could reach the majority of voters just by running ads on three networks.
  • Direct Mail – Politicians could use subscriber lists from certain magazines to target specific groups that might be interested in their policies.
  • Micro Targeting – This started around 2004 where data analysis identified target demographics to go after, advertise, and appeal to.
  • Individual Targeting – Howard Dean (2004) was a pioneer in this effort, coalescing state voter lists together and appending commercial data. This continued in 2008 with Barack Obama where they found that there was still a significant diversity in micro groups. The trend was refined in 2012 where campaigns used individual data to feed into, test, and refine their models.
  • However, there are roots back to 1891 when James Clarkson, the RNC chairman, assembled a file that featured the “age, occupation, nativity, residence and all the other facts in each votersʼ life, and had them arranged alphabetically, so that literature could be sent constantly to every voter directly.”10

    The Obama campaign in 2008 and 2012 hired enormous amounts of staffers — 342 in the 2012 race alone in technology, digital data and analytics.

    History of Voting Trends by State7

    All Elections since 1876 (the year Texas A&M was founded, whoop!)

    Most Democratic (1932)

    Most Republican (1972)

    Voter Turnout Rates

    In voter turnout data by country since 2000, the US ranks #159 out of #196 with just over 55% average voter turnout. We can and should do better.

    Rank Average of Voter Turn­out (%)# of Data PointsMin YearMax YearCountry
    199.8320022011Lao People's Dem. Republic
    299.3420022016Viet Nam
    397.9320032013Rwanda
    496.5120042004Equatorial Guinea
    595.1320032013Cuba
    694.1520012013Australia
    794320032013Malta
    893.8420012015Singapore
    991.3320042013Luxembourg
    1091.2320022008Faroe Islands
    1191320022012Bahamas
    1290.3420032014Belgium
    1389.9420002015Tajikistan
    1489.8420002015Ethiopia
    1589.8520002016Nauru
    1689.7320042014Uruguay
    1787.4320042013Turkmenistan
    1887.2320042014Antigua and Barbuda
    1987.1320042014Uzbekistan
    2086.4520012015Denmark
    2185.1320052013Aruba
    2284.6420022014Bolivia
    2384.5420032013Iceland
    2484.4420012013Liechtenstein
    2584.1420022015Turkey
    2683.5520002016Peru
    2783.3220012007Timor-Leste
    2883.1420022014Sweden
    2982.4420042014Tunisia
    3081.9320062014Cook Islands
    3181.6320042014Guinea-Bissau
    3281.6320022011Seychelles
    3381.5420012016Cyprus
    3480.2420012013Italy
    3580.1220052013Cayman Islands
    3680120022002Tuvalu
    3779.4320022012Sierra Leone
    3879.2320042014Botswana
    3979.1420022013Austria
    4078.6420022014Brazil
    4178.6420002014Mauritius
    4278.4220042014Namibia
    4378.2320042013Malaysia
    4477.9420012013Chile
    4577.9520022012Netherlands
    4677.8220012016Samoa
    4777.7120062006Palestinian Territory, Occupied
    4877.6520022014New Zealand
    4977320032013Monaco
    5076.9120122012Papua New Guinea
    5176.9420012013Norway
    5276.7320042014Indonesia
    5376.6220112015Gibraltar
    5476.6320012014Fiji
    5576.4420012015Guyana
    5676320052014Maldives
    5775.8320042014South Africa
    5875.6420032015Belize
    5975.6320032013Cambodia
    6075.6720012015Argentina
    6175.5420002012Belarus
    6275.5520002016Mongolia
    6375.4520012015Andorra
    6475.2320032013Grenada
    6575.1220082012Angola
    6675120032003Yemen
    6774.8520012013Philippines
    6874.8420022013Germany
    6974.1220052011Liberia
    7074420002012Ghana
    7173.9320022010Sao Tome and Principe
    7273.8320042014Panama
    7373.8320032012Bermuda
    7473.6320012011Nicaragua
    7573.5220102015Myanmar
    7673.5420002015Anguilla
    7773.3520002015Sri Lanka
    7872.8320022013Togo
    7972.7320052015Burundi
    8072.5420012014Montserrat
    8171.9620002016Spain
    8271.4120152015Comoros
    8370.9420022013Ecuador
    8470.7320022013Kenya
    8570.5320012014Bangladesh
    8670.5620002015Greece
    8769.7420002015Saint Kitts and Nevis
    8869.6320062012Montenegro
    8969.6420032015Virgin Islands, British
    9069.5420012012San Marino
    9169.4520022016Kazakhstan
    9268.4620012014Thailand
    9368.2320022013Cameroon
    9467.9420022014Costa Rica
    9567.8220022013Guinea
    9667.5120072007Kiribati
    9767.5320052014Iraq
    9867.2420012015Saint Vincent and The Grenadines
    9966.9220052011Central African Republic
    10066.9620002015Trinidad and Tobago
    10166.8320072013Bhutan
    10266.5420032015Finland
    10366.4620012015Israel
    10466.3420012016Uganda
    10566.2420052014Tonga
    10666.1420022016Ireland
    10766.1420022014Hungary
    10865.9320012013Mauritania
    10965.9320032013Paraguay
    11065.6420002015Suriname
    11165.3420012014Solomon Islands
    11265.1320072015Oman
    11365520012016Taiwan
    11464.7220062011Congo, Democratic Republic of
    11564.4520022016Vanuatu
    11664.4520062013Kuwait
    11764.3320012011Zambia
    11864.2420022015Burkina Faso
    11963.9420032015Guatemala
    12063.5320022010Netherlands Antilles
    12163.4320032013Djibouti
    12263.3120082008Nepal
    12363.2420012015United Kingdom
    12463520022014Latvia
    12563520022014Macedonia, former Yugoslav Republic (1993-)
    12662.6620002015Canada
    12762.6420012016Cape Verde
    12862.6520002015Croatia
    12962.5520012014Moldova, Republic of
    13062.4520002015Kyrgyzstan
    13162.3520002014Slovenia
    13262420032015Estonia
    13361.8320032013Barbados
    13461.7520022014Ukraine
    13561.6420022014Bahrain
    13661.5620002014Japan
    13761.5220002003Yugoslavia, FR/Union of Serbia and Montenegro
    13861.4320042014Malawi
    13961.1420002015Tanzania, United Republic of
    14061.1420022013Czech Republic
    14160.9320042014India
    14260.5520022016Slovakia
    14360.1520022015Portugal
    14459.8320032011Russian Federation
    14559.3320032012Armenia
    14659.3220022013Madagascar
    14759.3420032012Georgia
    14859.2220102015Sudan
    14959.2420032015Benin
    15058.6320022012France
    15157.9420022016Dominican Republic
    15257.9320082016Iran, Islamic Republic of
    15357.8520072016Serbia
    15457.6420002014Dominica
    15557.3520012014Bulgaria
    15657.1420032016Syrian Arab Republic
    15757520002014Bosnia and Herzegovina
    15855.9420012013Honduras
    15955.7820002014United States
    16055.5420002015Venezuela
    16155.3420032013Jordan
    16255.1520002016Korea, Republic of
    16355.1420022016Jamaica
    16454.8320002012Palau
    16554.5220022011Chad
    16653.4320042016Niger
    16753.1420022015Lesotho
    16852.1620002015Mexico
    16951.9420012013Albania
    17051.7220122014Libya
    17151.4420002012Lithuania
    17251.2420002012Romania
    17350.8520002015Azerbaijan
    17448.9320012011Saint Lucia
    17548.6220072013Micronesia, Federated States of
    17648.5320002009Lebanon
    17748.1520012015Poland
    17848220072015Marshall Islands
    17947.8420032015Switzerland
    18047.6220052010Afghanistan
    18146.7320022013Pakistan
    18246.2320012012Senegal
    18345.6320002008Zimbabwe
    18445.3420042014Kosovo
    18544.7320022011Morocco
    18643.7520002015El Salvador
    18743.2320042014Mozambique
    18842.6420022014Colombia
    18941.6320022012Algeria
    19040.5320032015Nigeria
    19139.2320022012Gambia
    19236.5420052015Egypt
    19334.3120112011Gabon
    19434.1220002011Côte d'Ivoire
    19532.2420002015Haiti
    19631.8320022013Mali

    • 30+ vote much at much higher rates than younger voters.
    • The more educated you are, the more likely you are to vote.
    • Most commonly black or white; Hispanics are the lowest consistently since 1984.
    • White share has been declining, but is still an overwhelming 77% of the vote8.
    • Sources:

      1. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-history-of-data-in-american-politics-part-1-william-jennings-bryan-to-barack-obama/
      2. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-history-of-data-in-american-politics-part-3-the-2016-primaries/
      3. http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/federalelections2012.shtml
      4. http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/voter-turnout-data
      5. http://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2016/comm/electorate-profiles/cb16-tps25_voting_texas.html
      6. http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/elections.php
      7. http://www.fairvote.org/voter_turnout#voter_turnout_101
      8. http://www.idea.int/vt/viewdata.cfm
      9. http://www.electproject.org/home/voter-turnout/demographics
      10. http://41lscp16wiqd3klpnn1z0t2a.wpengine.netdna-cdn.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Kreiss_NiemanFinal.pdf
      11. http://nationbuilder.com/voterfile
      12. ...more
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