Safe Transition Talks

#1 - Thomas Hickey: AGI Takeoff, Existential Risk, Regulation Ideas


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(See timestamps below)

Thomas Hickey is a Dutch student in both philosophy and artificial intelligence at Utrecht University. We talk about his bachelor thesis on A.G.I. or Artificial General Intelligence, on bottlenecks for recursive self-improvement. But also go into existential risk and what we can do about it.

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Alex van der Meer
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EPISODE LINKS:


Eliezer Yudkowsky, on why it is lethal not to have retries
https://intelligence.org/2022/06/10/agi-ruin/

OpenAI on their approach to alignment blog post
https://openai.com/blog/our-approach-to-alignment-research/

TIMESTAMPS:

On some podcast players you should be able to click the timestamp to jump to that time.

(00:00) - Introduction

(03:16) - Recursive self-improvement, how long until superintelligence

(10:50) - What can be learned in the digital realm

(14:21) - How fast can it learn in the real world

(18:34) - Can AGI become better than us?

(22:54) - Complex enough environment to create superintelligence?

(29:10) - Can AGI Thomas take over the world?

(37:40) - Is superintelligence irrelevant for safety?

(41:38) - Existential risk from AI?

(48:09) - How to decrease the chance of a bad outcome?

(49:08) - Regulations

(53:19) - ChatGPT and the best current models

(59:57) - Solution to the treacherous turn?  

(1:05:01) - AGI becomes religious?

(1:11:03) - Starting point of the intelligence explosion?

(1:16:49) - OpenAI Alignment approach blog post

(1:18:29) - Is Open source bad for safety?

(1:24:49) - How to contact me

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Safe Transition TalksBy Alex van der Meer