Beyond Currency

10 November 2022 - Q3 GDP likely to be a prelude to recession


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The Bank of England is expected to turn more dovish in its attempts to bring inflation under control in the New Year.
Various think tanks have reviewed the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee member's voting performance at meetings held since rates began to be raised last December. The conclusion is that they are reluctant to hike rates and will either vote for smaller hikes or abandon the policy entirely.
Bailey's comments at news conferences following meetings have been almost apologetic. Technocrats working for the Bank of England have been tasked with finding when inflation will begin to fall naturally if interest rate hikes are tapered or ended altogether.
Many feel the rise in inflation is due to circumstances beyond the Bank of England's control, and a tightening of fiscal policy will have a far greater effect.
A lot will depend on next week's budget delivered by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt as it is generally accepted that the country will start a long and painful recession this quarter.
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