Reliability analysis of asphalt structures is of paramount importance for pavement design, which usually aims to ensure a low failure probability. To determine the design strength of pavement against such a low failure probability, well-established probability distribution functions of the strength of asphalt mixtures are needed. While these are relatively easy to determine for asphalt mixtures at normal temperatures, the strength distribution properties for asphalt at low temperatures are more complicated.

This presentation shared a research project that aimed to develop a novel method to accurately determine the strength distribution of asphalt mixtures in an indirect manner, instead of relying on the traditional tedious histogram testing. The new method was derived from a rigorous probabilistic mechanics theory and was fully validated by a set of comprehensive experiments on asphalt mixtures.