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#13 – Chris Blattman: Why We Fight - The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace
Christopher Blattman is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, where he co-leads the Development Economics Center and the Obama Foundation Scholars Program. Chris also has affiliations with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), MIT’s Poverty Action Lab, the National Bureau for Economic Research, and the Center for Global Development. He has served as a consultant and adviser to the World Bank, the United Nations, and governments in Uganda, Liberia, Colombia, and the United States.
This conversation was a lot of fun and we covered a lot of ground: from Sparta to Kiev, from the Peloponnesian War to the Iraq War, from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to the prospects of war between China and Taiwan, and so much more!
We start by talking about Chris’s journey, from growing up in Ottawa to finding his way to international work and then eventually to conflict. We then shift to Chris’s book, “Why We Fight”, and the concept of fragility. Chris highlights how fragility sets the stage upon which the five reasons why we fight push a society away from bargaining to using violence or as he puts it: “when killing an Archduke in some random Balkan city can send the world to war.”
The five reasons for war that Chris identifies in his book are: unchecked interests, intangible incentives, uncertainty, commitment problems, and misperceptions. We discuss whether there is a potential hierarchy among then, how they are connected, which of the five reasons played a role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as how intangible incentives can be seen in the Ukrainians’ resolution to protect their country.
Chris also sums up decades of research and practical insights into 10 general principles that can set the world on the path to peace. We talk about how leaders are tempted by grand visions, but in reality, change happens incrementally – too bad 3% better doesn’t make for a good slogan!
Listen to the episode for so many more insights from Chris Blattman!
*****
Dr. Christopher Blattman
Website: https://chrisblattman.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/cblatts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisblattman
*****
EPISODE RESOURCES:
Blattman,Christopher (2022). Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. New York: Viking Press
The prospects for war with China: Why I see a serious chance of World War III in the next decade https://chrisblattman.com/blog/2022/10/26/the-prospects-for-war-with-china-why-i-see-a-serious-chance-of-world-war-iii-in-the-next-decade/
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
00:55 Chris’s background – people, places, ideas
02:56 How Chris approaches risk
05:08 How culture enables risk taking
07:17 A potential correlation between risk taking & creativity
10:50 What is fragility?
12:57 Dividing the pie & fragility
15:32 The role of the past in understanding fragility
18:29 When do we actually fight
22:41 The five reasons for wars
26:49 How to think about uncertainty vs. commitment problems
30:46 How intangible incentives change the nature of commitment problems
33:07 What is the interplay between uncertainty and technology
38:16 How interdependence failed to stop Russia’s attack on Ukraine
44:58 Is there a threshold of violence that we should accept in order to avoid war?
47:56 Why the West missed the Ukrainian resolve
53:12 Bad guys & good guys support propaganda
56:52 Can you change people’s misperceptions
01:01:19 Which leaders take their country to war
01:05:06 Wicked problems
01:07:44 When misperceptions are desirable
01:11:29 Chris’s 10 commandments
01:16:50 The Grandiose Vision 2050 OR the 3% better realistic goal
01:19:16 Working on the margin & anti-politics machines
01:21:46 Chris’s views on China & prospects for a war w/ Taiwan
01:24:41 Is Taiwan drawing inspiration from Ukraine
01:26:11 Forecasting vs understanding the root causes of conflict
01:29:42 What are the most interesting problems to work on in the next few decades
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By Mihaela Carstei, Paul M. Bisca, Johan Bjurman Bergman
5
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Christopher Blattman is the Ramalee E. Pearson Professor of Global Conflict Studies at the University of Chicago’s Harris School of Public Policy, where he co-leads the Development Economics Center and the Obama Foundation Scholars Program. Chris also has affiliations with Innovations for Poverty Action (IPA), MIT’s Poverty Action Lab, the National Bureau for Economic Research, and the Center for Global Development. He has served as a consultant and adviser to the World Bank, the United Nations, and governments in Uganda, Liberia, Colombia, and the United States.
This conversation was a lot of fun and we covered a lot of ground: from Sparta to Kiev, from the Peloponnesian War to the Iraq War, from Russia’s attack on Ukraine to the prospects of war between China and Taiwan, and so much more!
We start by talking about Chris’s journey, from growing up in Ottawa to finding his way to international work and then eventually to conflict. We then shift to Chris’s book, “Why We Fight”, and the concept of fragility. Chris highlights how fragility sets the stage upon which the five reasons why we fight push a society away from bargaining to using violence or as he puts it: “when killing an Archduke in some random Balkan city can send the world to war.”
The five reasons for war that Chris identifies in his book are: unchecked interests, intangible incentives, uncertainty, commitment problems, and misperceptions. We discuss whether there is a potential hierarchy among then, how they are connected, which of the five reasons played a role in Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as how intangible incentives can be seen in the Ukrainians’ resolution to protect their country.
Chris also sums up decades of research and practical insights into 10 general principles that can set the world on the path to peace. We talk about how leaders are tempted by grand visions, but in reality, change happens incrementally – too bad 3% better doesn’t make for a good slogan!
Listen to the episode for so many more insights from Chris Blattman!
*****
Dr. Christopher Blattman
Website: https://chrisblattman.com
Twitter: https://twitter.com/cblatts
LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/chrisblattman
*****
EPISODE RESOURCES:
Blattman,Christopher (2022). Why We Fight: The Roots of War and the Paths to Peace. New York: Viking Press
The prospects for war with China: Why I see a serious chance of World War III in the next decade https://chrisblattman.com/blog/2022/10/26/the-prospects-for-war-with-china-why-i-see-a-serious-chance-of-world-war-iii-in-the-next-decade/
TIMESTAMPS:
00:00 Intro
00:55 Chris’s background – people, places, ideas
02:56 How Chris approaches risk
05:08 How culture enables risk taking
07:17 A potential correlation between risk taking & creativity
10:50 What is fragility?
12:57 Dividing the pie & fragility
15:32 The role of the past in understanding fragility
18:29 When do we actually fight
22:41 The five reasons for wars
26:49 How to think about uncertainty vs. commitment problems
30:46 How intangible incentives change the nature of commitment problems
33:07 What is the interplay between uncertainty and technology
38:16 How interdependence failed to stop Russia’s attack on Ukraine
44:58 Is there a threshold of violence that we should accept in order to avoid war?
47:56 Why the West missed the Ukrainian resolve
53:12 Bad guys & good guys support propaganda
56:52 Can you change people’s misperceptions
01:01:19 Which leaders take their country to war
01:05:06 Wicked problems
01:07:44 When misperceptions are desirable
01:11:29 Chris’s 10 commandments
01:16:50 The Grandiose Vision 2050 OR the 3% better realistic goal
01:19:16 Working on the margin & anti-politics machines
01:21:46 Chris’s views on China & prospects for a war w/ Taiwan
01:24:41 Is Taiwan drawing inspiration from Ukraine
01:26:11 Forecasting vs understanding the root causes of conflict
01:29:42 What are the most interesting problems to work on in the next few decades