You can feel it in the questions people are asking lately. Are rate cuts coming? What does that actually change? And why do some parts of the market seem to react before it even reaches the headlines?

This conversation takes a step back from predictions and zooms in on cause and effect—how policy decisions can ripple through bonds, equities, real estate, commodities, and currencies, sometimes quietly and sometimes all at once. The team walks through how these shifts can show up in portfolios, where risks may be less obvious, and why certain areas may start to matter more when the Fed eases.

Tune in to understand the mechanics beneath the moves, the tradeoffs investors face in different environments, and why positioning often matters more than precision.

References:

0:00 - “The Fed recently did a study and it showed that roughly this time around, only 40% of the tariff costs were passed on. That compares to roughly 80% if you go back to 2019 in the first Trump administration.” https://www.bostonfed.org/home/publications/research-department-working-paper/2019/tariff-passthrough-at-the-border-and-at-the-store-evidence-from-us-trade-policy.aspx

2:00 - “the Fed just scored a quarter in December. ... the Fed is predicting one cut in 26 and one in 27. I think the market’s predicting two.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/fed-forecasts-only-one-rate-cut-in-2026-a-more-conservative-outlook-than-expected.html

2:20 - “there was … two actual dissents … that wanted rates to … not move… and then one that asked for a 50 basis point cut… Steve Murrin… He is a Trump appointee.” https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/17/new-trump-appointee-miran-calls-for-half-point-cut-in-only-dissent-as-rest-of-fed-bands-together.html

7:08 - “The Fed recently did a study and it showed that roughly this time around, only 40% of the tariff costs were passed on. That compares to roughly 80% if you go back to 2019 in the first Trump administration.” https://www.bostonfed.org/home/publications/research-department-working-paper/2019/tariff-passthrough-at-the-border-and-at-the-store-evidence-from-us-trade-policy.aspx

Any references to specific securities (including discussion of recent price movements) are for illustrative purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice or a recommendation. Such references may not be representative of all securities purchased, sold, or recommended for clients, and there is no guarantee that any investment strategy will be successful. Statements regarding market outlooks, sector views, and potential portfolio positioning—including any discussion of “long” or “short” exposures—are general commentary, not individualized recommendations, and may not be appropriate for all investors. Investment decisions should be based on an investor’s objectives, risk tolerance, time horizon, and financial circumstances.

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