Why You Should Sell Derrick Henry in 2021
Why You Should Sell Derrick Henry in 2021
Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 140 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.
During the 2020 NFL season, Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry rushed for a total of 2,027 yards. In the process, Henry become the eighth RB in NFL history to eclipse 2,000 yards in a single season. Henry’s performance clearly benefited those that managed a roster with him on it in 2020. Henry finished his 2020 campaign with a career high finish in points with 331.3 and placement as the RB3. In a season when many (myself included) called for regression, Henry improved on his 2019 performance of 294.6 PPR points and a RB5 finish.
The 2,000-yard rushing accomplishment is certainly significant, after all, in the leagues 101 year history only eight have done it. One of the most difficult decisions a dynasty manager can make is when to move on from a high performing asset. Don’t believe me, just ask all those that still have Todd Gurley and Le’Veon Bell cluttering up their rosters. When looking at the asset that Henry is and trying to determine what to do with him, it led me to ponder what became of the seven previous members of the 2,000-yard club. Utilizing statistics courteously of Pro Football Reference, I took a deeper look into this exclusive club with the intent of finding a trend. The trend I discovered is the reasoning behind why you should sell Derrick Henry in 2021.
Eric Dickerson – Los Angeles Rams
Why You Should Sell Derrick Henry in 2021
Eric Dickerson ran for 2,105 yards in 1984, a record that still stands today. He accomplished this on 379 carries (5.6 YPC) and for good measure Dickerson added 21 receptions for 139 more yards. In total on 400 touches, he posted 2,244 yards and scored 14 touchdowns.
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Clearly 1984 turned out to be his best season; after all, he set the league rushing total. What is interesting is the decline after the 1984 season. In 1985, his carries dropped by 87, his yards by 871, his YPC by 1.4, and his touchdowns by 2. His receiving game stayed near his previous season and his total touches and yards as a result dropped by 88 and 884.
Dickerson set the record when he was 24 and saw a bounce back season in 1986 at the age of 26. In his last full season with the Rams, he bounced back to 1,821 yards and exceeded 400 touches for a second time. He finished that season with 430 touches for a combined 2,026 yards.
Dickerson had a few more productive years in 1988 and 1989, as he ran for 1,659 in ’88 and another 1,311 in ’89. 1989 was his final 1,000+ yard rushing campaign. In total, he spent 11 seasons in the league, and he topped 1,000 rushing yards in eight of them and over 2,000 total yards on four occasions. His 2,000+ rushing yard season was the only season in which he ran for over five yards per carry.
Dickerson finished the 1984 season as the RB4 with 327.4 PPR points. He regressed to RB19 and 218 points in 1985. Dickerson remained productive, finishing as RB3 in 1986, and RB2 in 1988, but coming out out his 2,000-yard season was the ultimate time to sell high on this record holder.