2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – NFC North

Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 146 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.

In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.

We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the NFC North.

Chicago Bears

2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – NFC North.

Player I Am Buying

Darnell Mooney – Overall ADP 125 WR40

As a rookie, Darnell Mooney established himself as the No. 2 receiver in Chicago. Mooney a 5th round selection in the 2020 draft, finished his season with 152.1 PPR points and as the WR50. Mooney is a solid sleeper candidate for 2021. Improved quarterback play could get his low catch percentage (62.2%) up, and the departure of Anthony Miller (76 targets) could lead to increased volume in addition to the increased quality of the targets.

In Matt Nagy’s three seasons in Chicago, Allen Robinson is the only receiver to earn more than 100 targets. That is a stat that likely doesn’t change in 2021, but we should expect the Bears to be a pass heavy team, with a questionable offensive line and a defense that is no longer the force it once was. Darnell Mooney in the back of round ten is great value and I am buying him there all day long.

Player I Am Selling

David Montgomery – Overall ADP 30 RB16

I am a David Montgomery truther, simply put I am a fan. It certainly doesn’t hurt that Monty put my fantast team on his back on route to a RotoHeat 96 team fantasy league championship a season ago. Any chance I get to bring that up, its going to happen.

In Montgomery’s breakout 2020 season, he was an easy top-10 running back in all formats. With the return of Tarik Cohen, and the addition of Damien Williams there’s enough uncertainty that I see him more as an early fourth-round selection. Without Cohen, Montgomery saw his role in the passing game blossom, more than doubling his catches per game. With Cohen eventually coming back and Williams there I see the pass catching coming down thus limiting the ceiling for Montgomery. If Matt Nagy assumes pay calling duties once again, I might pass on Montgomery all together.

Take the Flyer

Cole Kmet – Overall ADP 202 TE25

I was a fan of Cole Kmet last season as a rookie. The reality of this league is that it is really tough for rookie tight ends to be fantasy relevant. Only two tight ends have been a top-12 TE as a rookie. Adding to Kmet’s challenges last season was the presence of Jimmy Graham.

With Graham still on the roster, Kmet profiles as a dart throw towards the end of your draft. Kmet’s emergence at the end of 2020 saw him earn 30 targets over the team’s final five regular season games. But even in that stretch he was outscored by Jimmy Graham and 18 other tight ends. I believe we are a year out from fantasy relevance for Kmet making him a dynasty asset I want to buy. In case I am wrong,