War, Markets, and Why You Still Can’t Invest on Headlines

Hosts Josh Sheluk and Colin White discuss how wars and geopolitical conflict have historically affected markets, emphasizing the human tragedy while focusing on financial implications. They review major Middle East conflicts since 2000: Afghanistan (Oct 7, 2001), Iraq (Mar 20, 2003), the Syrian Civil War (Mar 15, 2011), the Yemeni Civil War (Sep 21, 2014), and the Oct 7, 2023 Israel conflict, and argue market outcomes were driven more by other forces (tech bubble collapse, European debt crisis, oil shocks, 2008 crisis) than by the conflicts themselves. They cite BCA Research finding only the 1973 Yom Kippur War/oil embargo clearly led to a bear market, noting today’s lower oil intensity and U.S. oil export position. They conclude rapid sentiment shifts make conflict “unreactable,” so investors should maintain resilient portfolios rather than adjust to headlines. Click here to view the episode transcript.