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147 – Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West
2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West
Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 147 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.
In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.
We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC West.
Denver Broncos
2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC West
Player I Am Buying
Jerry Jeudy – Overall ADP 76 WR32
Jerry Jeudy was a WR that I wanted a lot of shares of in 2020. In 2021 nothing has changed except my appetite to roster him has become even more elevated. Jerry Jeudy ranked sixth among wideouts with 1,529 air yards, sixth in receiving average with 16.5, and 19th with 5.46 yards after catch per reception as a rookie with rather horrific quarterback play. In year two I expect him to take the next step.
The haters will point to his 46% catch rate, his 3.3 receptions per game and his 14 drops. None of those stats concern me. Jeudy seeing 113 targets as a rookie is a good thing, I get he dropped 14 passes but Tyreek Hill dropped 11, Alvin Kamara 10, and DK Metcalf 9. Funny we don’t see folks fading them. Jeudy is an elite route runner that will continue to get open, Courtland Sutton is back to take some attention off Jeudy, and teh QB in Denver will be much better than a season ago. In the sixth round I love the value that Jerry Jeudy is, and I will be buying.
Player I Am Selling
Javonte Williams – Overall ADP 68 RB28
Javonte Williams is likely going to be among the most popular rookies taken in Fantasy drafts with Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts. I have no problem with drafting Williams, in fact he is one of the rookies that I would like to roster in redraft this season. My concern is the price not the player.
Williams scored 19 touchdowns and ran for over 1,400 total yards in a split backfield last season at North Carolina. That experience sharing touches will help him deal with Melvin Gordon in 2021. The split however I believe with favor Gordon, especially early in the season. If you draft Williams, you’re hoping, that he takes over the touches in this backfield and that Gordon fades sooner than later. Williams has the higher upside but also brings with him, a lower floor. The recent injury to Melvin Gordon, might help Williams but it will also lead to an elevated ADP. I am happy to select Williams in the mid to late six round. The problem is he will be long gone by then. That is a situation I am comfortable with and I will sell him at his current round five value.
Take the Flyer
Drew Lock – Overall ADP 298 QB35
I like Drew Lock much more than others. Is he a week in week out fantasy starter in a twelve team league, no he is not. He is also not a 35th ranked QB. Lock played in 5 games as a rookie, completed 64% of his passes for 1020 yards 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Not world beating numbers but over 16 games that is a pace of 3264 yards, 22 TDs and 10 INTS.
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By Sully's Two Cents2021 Buy, Sell, Take the Flyer – AFC West
Hello Heat Seekers welcome to episode 147 of Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast, I am your host I am Rob Sullivan. The Sully’s 2 Cents Fantasy Football Podcast is a proud member of the RotoHeat Family of podcasts.
In these 8 articles, I utilized ADP to identify a players I am buying, a player I am selling, and I selected a flyer off each team. Buying and selling have nothing to do with my opinion of the player and everything to do with my perceived value of the player vs. ADP. As for the flyer, these are gut feels on players deeper down in ADP that you are likely selecting in the late rounds of start-up drafts or perhaps in some cases, guys you will find on your league’s waiver wires.
We continue the 2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – with the AFC West.
Denver Broncos
2021 Buy Sell Take the Flyer Series – AFC West
Player I Am Buying
Jerry Jeudy – Overall ADP 76 WR32
Jerry Jeudy was a WR that I wanted a lot of shares of in 2020. In 2021 nothing has changed except my appetite to roster him has become even more elevated. Jerry Jeudy ranked sixth among wideouts with 1,529 air yards, sixth in receiving average with 16.5, and 19th with 5.46 yards after catch per reception as a rookie with rather horrific quarterback play. In year two I expect him to take the next step.
The haters will point to his 46% catch rate, his 3.3 receptions per game and his 14 drops. None of those stats concern me. Jeudy seeing 113 targets as a rookie is a good thing, I get he dropped 14 passes but Tyreek Hill dropped 11, Alvin Kamara 10, and DK Metcalf 9. Funny we don’t see folks fading them. Jeudy is an elite route runner that will continue to get open, Courtland Sutton is back to take some attention off Jeudy, and teh QB in Denver will be much better than a season ago. In the sixth round I love the value that Jerry Jeudy is, and I will be buying.
Player I Am Selling
Javonte Williams – Overall ADP 68 RB28
Javonte Williams is likely going to be among the most popular rookies taken in Fantasy drafts with Najee Harris, Travis Etienne, Ja’Marr Chase and Kyle Pitts. I have no problem with drafting Williams, in fact he is one of the rookies that I would like to roster in redraft this season. My concern is the price not the player.
Williams scored 19 touchdowns and ran for over 1,400 total yards in a split backfield last season at North Carolina. That experience sharing touches will help him deal with Melvin Gordon in 2021. The split however I believe with favor Gordon, especially early in the season. If you draft Williams, you’re hoping, that he takes over the touches in this backfield and that Gordon fades sooner than later. Williams has the higher upside but also brings with him, a lower floor. The recent injury to Melvin Gordon, might help Williams but it will also lead to an elevated ADP. I am happy to select Williams in the mid to late six round. The problem is he will be long gone by then. That is a situation I am comfortable with and I will sell him at his current round five value.
Take the Flyer
Drew Lock – Overall ADP 298 QB35
I like Drew Lock much more than others. Is he a week in week out fantasy starter in a twelve team league, no he is not. He is also not a 35th ranked QB. Lock played in 5 games as a rookie, completed 64% of his passes for 1020 yards 7 TDs and 2 INTs. Not world beating numbers but over 16 games that is a pace of 3264 yards, 22 TDs and 10 INTS.