Prediction Markets: Why They’re Gambling, Not Investing

Hosts Josh Sheluk and Colin White of Verecan Capital Management discuss the rise of prediction markets (e.g., Polymarket, Kalshi, and a planned Wealthsimple product in Canada) following regulatory approvals, and argue people should avoid them. They frame the episode as a “draft of bad ideas,” led by the claim that participants will likely lose money, citing research on 1.4 million users and $20B in transactions showing profits are concentrated (1% earning ~80% of profits) and losses can be extreme (0.1% accounting for 43% of losses). They warn prediction markets are prone to manipulation and insider-information advantages, give examples of odds moving ahead of events, and criticize regulators’ rationale that people will do it anyway. They emphasize these products blur investing and gambling, siphon money from long-term investing, and are gamified to drive activity. Click here to view the episode transcript.