Zelos Soundbites

15. March 2026 Zelos Ridgeline


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March was a broadly negative month, with all four indices we track, the S&P/TSX Composite, S&P 500, MSCI World, and Canadian bonds, finishing in negative territory.The driver was less about any single data point and more about a change in market narrative.Following a period where markets were increasingly confident in moderating inflation and eventual interest rate cuts, March introduced a new variable: a sharp rise in energy prices tied to escalating geopolitical tensions. This led to a reassessment of inflation expectations and, in turn, central bank policy paths, creating a more cautious environment across asset classes.Markets responded accordingly, equities declined, bonds also faced pressure as yields adjusted, and volatility increased across regions. In short, it was a reminder that markets can reprice quickly when assumptions change. March is exactly the type of environment our portfolios are built to navigate. While periods like this can be uncomfortable in the short term, they reinforce a key principle: consistency over time is often a function of how portfolios behave in difficult markets, not just strong ones.Across our model portfolios, the focus remains on:- Reducing downside participation during market stress- Maintaining participation during recoveries- Producing a more consistent return experience over full cyclesThis approach has historically resulted in lower downside capture relative to upside capture, contributing to stronger risk-adjusted outcomes over time.Since inception, our model portfolios have demonstrated a narrower return range and meaningfully lower volatility, with standard deviation approximately 2.0% to 2.3% below their benchmarks, depending on the mandate.Importantly, consistency is not accidental, it is the result of disciplined portfolio construction, diversification across asset classes (including alternatives), and careful manager selection. I had the opportunity to spend a couple of days in Toronto recently, meeting with several of our long-standing portfolio managers. These sessions are always valuable, not just for reviewing performance, but for understanding how managers are thinking about markets, risk, and opportunity in real time. What stood out most was not a shift in strategy, but the opposite: a continued focus on disciplined execution and long-term thinking.

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Zelos SoundbitesBy Zelos Investment Counsel