What happens when political forecasts miss the mark, global rules evolve, and economic models don’t quite capture reality? In this episode, we dive into the major political and economic stories shaping Australia’s role on the world stage. Co-hosts Domenique Sherab and Paul Scanlon take you through a three-part format, delivering insightful analysis and grounded perspectives on the key forces driving markets and policy decisions.

We start by unpacking Australia’s recent federal election, where the Labor Party achieved a historic re-election while the Liberal campaign faced an unexpected and significant setback which caught many by surprise. Next, Domenique and Paul turn their attention to the U.S. lifting long-standing sanctions on Syria, exploring what this move might mean for the region’s recovery, trade opportunities, and shifting geopolitical dynamics.

Then our focus shifts to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s latest interest rate cut, highlighting the growing uncertainties in the global economy and the potential return of inflation amid changing trade landscapes.

Wrapping up, the conversation broadens to a global scale with Moody’s recent downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, ending its AAA status, and what this signals about fiscal trustworthiness and the evolving rules around sovereign debt. Throughout, Domenique and Paul bring a distinctly Australian viewpoint to help make sense of a fast-changing economic environment.

Episode Highlights: 

[00:57] Paul has recently returned from a holiday in South Africa and other African regions.

[01:28] We'll be discussing the new government in Australia, Syrian sanctions, the latest RBA cut, and Moody's downgrade of the US economy in our segments: "What's in the News?", "The Hand", and "The Invisible".

[02:06] What's in the news? The Australian election was on May 3rd. Anthony Albanese was re-elected. 

[03:52] We share our analysis of the election. 

[07:16] On May 12th, Donald Trump announced the US would lift sanctions on Syria.

[10:30] The speed or pace at which Syria can benefit from that re-entry into global trading markets will be dependent on the speed and ability for it to rebuild that trade and economic infrastructure.

[12:13] The hand: The RBA lowered rates last week.

[15:31] The preemptive cut to stimulate the economy is appropriate.

[16:27] How the rate cut will affect keeping inflation and unemployment rates stable.

[25:54] A big shout out to the Odd Lots podcast. 

[28:35] Paul talks about what all this analysis means for his January predictions.

[30:01] The invisible: On May 16th, 2025, Moody's downgraded the United States credit rating, making it the last major rating agency to strip the US of its AAA rating.

[31:54] Credit ratings are important and they affect the price of your debt.

[36:46] This debt issue is what Trump is trying to address.

[37:28] How many countries have AAA credit rating? There are 12 including Australia.

Resources & Links Related to this Episode

• The Invisible Hand Podcast
• Odd Lots Podcast
• The Butterfly Effect: How Your Life Matters