約旦政變的報導是對以色列的警鐘嗎？

據前外交官和安全人員的分析人士稱，約旦的穩定永遠應該是以色列的關切。

由TOVAH LAZAROFF

2021年4月5日13:43

約旦外交部長艾曼·薩法迪（Ayman al Safadi）和歐盟外交與安全政策高級代表兼歐洲委員會副主席約瑟夫·博雷爾（Josep Borrell）於2020年2月2日在約旦安曼舉行會議後對媒體發表講話

（照片來源：路透社/穆罕默德·哈默德）

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約旦國王阿卜杜拉的同父異母兄弟哈姆扎·本·侯賽因親王 被軟禁，其行動針對的是以色列和美國主要盟友的安全與穩定，這一行動在全球和區域範圍內都受到了影響。

一旦塵埃落定，故事似乎就好像被誇大了，特別是考慮到哈姆扎親王似乎沒有得到軍方的支持，這是約旦政變成功的必要因素。

總統兼總理西蒙·佩雷斯（Shimon Peres）首席顧問尼姆羅德·諾維克（Nimrod Novik）表示：“沒有軍隊的支持，政變不是政變。”

但是，約旦的貧困經濟在過去十年中因電暈大流行和收容了敘利亞衝突中的大量難民而變得更糟，這為潛在的危機創造了理想的溫床。

據前外交官和安全人員的分析人士稱，約旦的穩定永遠應該是以色列的關切。

因此，週六在約旦發生的事件應該是對以色列人的一個警鐘，以更多地關注它的近鄰。

以色列最長的邊界是約旦，哈希姆王國是以色列與伊拉克和伊朗之間戰略深度的直接緩衝區。

如果沒有約旦，一些人猜測伊朗可能會沿著約旦邊界以及敘利亞邊界盤。

根據國外消息，約旦為以色列提供了一條空中航線，以攻擊伊朗在敘利亞的軍事代理。

在奧巴馬，克林頓和布什執政期間任職的美國前談判代表丹尼斯·羅斯說：“我們應該始終關注約旦的局勢。” “約旦的立場舉足輕重，其穩定至關重要。”

華盛頓近東政策研究所的傑出研究員羅斯說，如果以色列不能指望約旦維持該邊界的安全，那將改變該國的整個軍事戰略。

他說，對美國和海灣國家來說，這裡的賭注很高。

“即使事實並非如此，這仍然是一個警鐘，提醒我們應該密切注意，因為我們的賭注很高，這使我們有充分的理由盤點並考慮是否存在某些事情。可以與我們現在做的有所不同。”羅斯說。

特拉維夫大學國家安全研究所（INSS）的研究員，以色列前駐約旦大使奧德·伊蘭（Oded Eran）說，以色列與約旦軍隊保持著緊密而良好的關係。

但是諾維克表示，兩國政府之間的關係一直很差，並指出以色列沒有為約旦的穩定作出投資，應該認真對待週六的事件。

他說，在兩國之間的危機中，以色列未能認真對待約旦在聖殿山的特殊保管作用。

他說：“主要是在聖殿山，我們正在破壞政權的合法性。”

他指出，上個月的危機是以色列拒絕哈希姆王儲侯賽因·本·阿卜杜拉進入以色列，以便他可以參觀聖殿山。

以色列政策論壇和以色列安全指導委員會指揮官諾維克解釋說，此前有報導稱以色列將考慮在沙特阿拉伯扮演沙特阿拉伯的角色。

他說，這是一連串的小事件，看起來像是幼兒園的爭吵，但總的來說，它們會產生影響。

最重要的是，他補充說，據媒體報導，就在上週，總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡（Benjamin Netanyahu）推遲了批准約旦的供水要求。

其他分析家以及羅斯建議，幫助以色列應對水危機的姿態可能對幫助阿卜杜拉國王大有幫助。

此後，分析家建議以色列繼續推進可以在經濟上幫助約旦的聯合項目。

諾維克說，需要採取總體戰略方針，他呼籲內塔尼亞胡召集一個機構間工作隊，討論幫助穩定約旦的方法。

他說，如果發生這種情況，那麼“如果這是一個喚醒電話，那是值得的，”諾維克說。

Were reports of a Jordanian coup a wake-up call for Israel?

According to analysts, former diplomats and security personnel, Jordan’s stability should always be an Israeli concern.

By TOVAH LAZAROFF

APRIL 5, 2021 13:43

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman al Safadi and High Representative of the EU for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of European Commission Josep Borrell speak to the media after their meeting in Amman, Jordan, February 2, 2020

(photo credit: REUTERS/MUHAMMAD HAMED)

The house arrest of Jordan’s King Abdullah’s half-brother, Prince Hamza bin Hussein, for actions targeting the security and stability of a key Israeli and United States ally reverberated globally and regionally.

Once the dust settled, it almost seemed as if the story had been overblown particularly given that Prince Hamza did not appear to have the support of the military, a necessary ingredient for the success of a Jordanian coup.

“Without support from the military a coup is not a coup,” said Nimrod Novik, a chief adviser to president and prime minister Shimon Peres.

But the poor economy in Jordan, made worse by the corona pandemic and its hosting of a large number of refugees from the Syrian conflict in the last decade, has created the perfect breeding ground for a potential crisis.

According to analysts, former diplomats and security personnel, Jordan’s stability should always be an Israeli concern.

Saturday’s events in Jordan, therefore, should be a wake-up call to Israelis to pay more attention to its immediate neighbor.

Israel’s longest border is with Jordan, where the Hashemite Kingdom provides Israel an immediate buffer zone of strategic depth between it and Iraq and Iran.

Without Jordan, some speculated Iran could be entrenching itself along that Jordanian border as well as the Syrian one.

According to foreign sources, Jordan provides Israel with an air-route to attack Iranian military proxies in Syria.

“We should always be concerned about what happens in Jordan,” said former US negotiator Dennis Ross, who served during the Obama, Clinton and Bush administrations. “Jordan’s position has been pivotal and its stability is essential.”

If Israel can’t count on Jordan to maintain security along that border, then that changes the country’s entire military strategy, said Ross, who is a distinguished fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.

The stakes are high here for the United States and for the Gulf nations as well, he said.

“Even if this turns out not to be so real, this is a wake-up call, a reminder that we should be paying close attention because our stakes are high and that gives us good reason to take stock and consider if there are things we can be doing differently than we are doing now,” said Ross.

Former Israeli ambassador to Jordan Oded Eran, a research fellow at Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), said that Israel has maintained tight and good relations with the Jordanian military.

But Novik said that the relations between the two governments has been poor, noting that Israel has not invested in Jordanian stability and should take Saturday’s events seriously.

Among the crisis points between the two countries, he said, has been Israel’s failure to take seriously Jordan’s special custodial role on the Temple Mount.

“It’s mostly with the Temple Mount where we are undermining regime legitimacy,” he said.

He pointed to the last month’s crisis in which Israel denied Hashemite Crown Prince Hussein bin Abdullah entry to Israel so that he could visit the Temple Mount.

This follows reports that Israel would consider a role for Saudi Arabia on the Mount, explained Novik, a fellow at the Israel Policy Forum and on the Commanders for Israel’s Security steering committee.

It’s a chain of minor incidents with each one looking like a kindergarten quarrel, he said, but put together they have an impact.

On top of that, he added, just last week Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu delayed approving a request by Jordan for water, according to media reports.

Other analysts as well as Ross suggested that the gesture of helping Israeli with its water crisis could go a long way to helping King Abdullah.

After that, analysts suggested that Israel could move forward on joint projects that could help Jordan economically.

There needs to be an overall strategic approach, said Novik, who called on Netanyahu to convene an interagency task force to discuss ways to help stabilize Jordan.

If this happens, he said, then “if this was a wake-up call, it was worth it,” Novik said.

在伊朗的影響下，伊拉克總理押注海灣地區的支持

幾個月前，伊拉克有謠言說沙特阿拉伯增加了投資。

由SETH J.FRANTZMAN

2021年4月5日17:30

伊拉克總理穆斯塔法·卡迪米（Mostafa al-Kadhimi）在2020年5月7日在伊拉克巴格達議會總部就新政府進行的投票中發表講話

（照片來源：伊拉克路透社媒體辦公室/通過路透社進行淘汰）

伊拉克總理穆斯塔法·卡迪米（Mustafa al-Kadhimi）親臨海灣地區，希望得到利雅得和阿聯酋的更多支持。但是，他知道美國正在考慮重新與伊朗進行核討論，並且他知道親伊朗的民兵和政黨控制著伊拉克的大部分地區。

他可以去墨西哥灣求婚多遠？海灣能否在伊拉克平衡伊朗？

個月前，伊拉克有謠言說沙特阿拉伯增加了投資。這在親伊朗的什葉派人士之間引起了爭議，他們不僅反對利雅得，而且還指控海灣國家過去在伊拉克支持遜尼派伊斯蘭極端分子。由於海灣國家希望在伊拉克實現穩定，這可能不再是正確的，但它仍然是伊朗的話題。

伊朗在伊拉克​​的朋友認為，海灣正在使與以色列的關係正常化，海灣國家是美國的p，而伊朗則在“抵抗”沙特阿拉伯和以色列。為此，他們贊成抵制海灣錢。

卡迪米不同意。在過去的五年中，美國試圖將伊拉克拉近與利雅得的距離。儘管在海灣戰爭之後進行了近二十年的激烈爭論，這項工作還是實現了。邊界重新開放，飛行與外交一起恢復。什葉派牧師穆克塔達·薩德爾（Muqtada al-Sadr）甚至在2017年與沙特阿拉伯人會面，據稱鼓勵減少對利雅得的煽動。

自去年上任以來經歷了一段艱難時期的卡迪米（Kadhimi）幾天前抵達沙特阿拉伯。親伊朗的民兵威脅他，並繼續襲擊美國基地。

卡迪米似乎無法控制民兵，但他希望與美國進行戰略對話，並希望拜登政府能提供更多支持。他可能想平衡伊朗，但目前尚不清楚。

阿聯酋《國民報》稱：“他週日說，訪問阿聯酋是他政府加強該國與阿拉伯地區關係的一部分，”阿布扎比王儲穆罕默德·本·扎耶德王儲接待了卡迪米。武裝部隊副最高指揮官Al Nahyan。

卡迪米在推特上說：“作為我國政府改善伊拉克地區和國際關係的一部分，我今天在阿聯酋與一個正式代表團一起。”

據《國民報》報導，謝赫·穆罕默德·謝赫·穆罕默德在Qasr Al Watan舉行了正式的招待儀式，其中包括21枝禮炮，儀仗隊以及阿聯酋和伊拉克的國歌。

謝赫·穆罕默德說：“阿聯酋仍致力於支持伊拉克及其人民的穩定與進步。”

儘管有兄弟般的關係，但不清楚阿聯酋和利雅得在伊拉克還能做什麼。該國分裂，但海灣國家可能選擇幫助重建在對抗ISIS的戰爭中受損的地區或投資於庫爾德斯坦地區。

Kadhimi是否能以比傳統的口頭服務更多的回報率還有待觀察。在待辦事項清單上：保持穩定，與COVID-19戰鬥，使伊拉克再次成為一個繁榮安全的國家。

Iraq’s prime minister gambles on Gulf support amid Iran’s influence

Months ago there were rumors in Iraq about increasing investment from Saudi Arabia.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

APRIL 5, 2021 17:30

Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi delivers a speech during the vote on the new government at the parliament headquarters in Baghdad, Iraq, May 7, 2020

(photo credit: IRAQI PARLIAMENT MEDIA OFFICE/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

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Iraq’s Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi has to toe a fine line as he goes hat in hand to the Gulf hoping for more support from Riyadh and the UAE. However, he knows the US is contemplating reentering nuclear discussions with Iran, and he knows pro-Iranian militias and political parties control much of Iraq.

How far can he go to court the Gulf? Can the Gulf balance Iran in Iraq?

Months ago there were rumors in Iraq about increasing investment from Saudi Arabia. This has caused controversy among pro-Iran Shi’ites who not only oppose Riyadh but have accused Gulf states of supporting Sunni Islamist extremists in the past in Iraq. That may no longer be true as the Gulf states want stability in Iraq, but it is still the Iranian talking point.

Iran’s friends in Iraq argue that the Gulf is normalizing relations with Israel and that Gulf states are puppets of the US, while Iran is “resisting” Saudi Arabia and Israel. Toward that end they are in favor of resisting Gulf money.

Kadhimi disagrees. Over the past five years the US has tried to bring Iraq closer to Riyadh. This was accomplished despite almost two decades of acrimony after the Gulf War. Borders were reopened, and flights resumed along with diplomacy. Shi’ite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr even met with the Saudis in 2017 and allegedly encouraged less incitement against Riyadh.

Kadhimi, who has had a difficult time since coming to office last year, arrived in Saudi Arabia several days ago. The pro-Iranian militias have threatened him and continue to attack US bases.

Kadhimi appears unable to control the militias, but he wants strategic dialogue with the US and hopes for more support from the Biden administration. He might like to balance Iran, but it’s unclear how.

“He said on Sunday that his visit to the UAE is part of his government’s approach to strengthen the country’s ties with the Arab region,” according to The National in the UAE, where Kadhimi was received by Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, deputy supreme commander of the Armed Forces.

“As part of my government’s approach to enhance Iraq’s regional and international relations, I am today in the UAE with an official delegation,” Kadhimi said on Twitter.

Sheikh Mohammed hosted an official reception ceremony at Qasr Al Watan, which included a 21-gun salute, honor guard and the national anthems of the UAE and Iraq, The National reported.

“The UAE remains committed to supporting stability and progress for Iraq and its people,” Sheikh Mohammed said.

Despite the talk of fraternal relations, it is unclear what more the UAE and Riyadh can do in Iraq. The country is divided, but the Gulf states might choose to help rebuild areas damaged in the war against ISIS or invest in the Kurdistan Region.

It remains to be seen if Kadhimi can return with more than the traditional lip service. On the to-do list: Bring stability, fight COVID-19 and make Iraq a prosperous, secure country again.

總理仍然缺乏通向多數派的道路。右翼的新希望，主要是阿拉伯聯合名單和拉姆不支持任何人

由TOI工作人員今天9:19 pm更新於10:46 pm 0

·

魯文·里夫林總統（L）在2021年4月5日於耶路撒冷的總統官邸會見了新希望黨的代表，就誰將組建新政府進行了磋商。（Mark Neyman.GPO）

週一，新希望，聯合名單和拉姆黨避免批准任何總理候選人，以確保利庫德集團領導人內塔尼亞胡獲得組建政府的最多建議。

在黨代表與魯汶·里夫林總統磋商的一天結束時，內塔尼亞胡得到52個MK的支持（利庫德30；沙斯9；聯合摩西五經猶太人7；宗教猶太復國主義6）。

耶什·阿蒂德（Yesh Atid）領導人Yair Lapid被他自己的Yamina黨的7名成員推薦給45個MK總理（耶什·阿蒂德17，藍與白8，伊斯雷爾·貝特努7，勞工7，梅雷茲6）和納夫塔利·貝內特。沒有提出建議的三個政黨佔了以色列議會的最後16個席位（新希望6，聯合名單6和拉姆4）。

這意味著內塔尼亞胡很適合由里夫林（Rivlin）來組建新的聯盟。里夫林的辦公室表示，他將在周二發布決定。

內塔尼亞胡仍然缺乏在擁有120名成員的以色列議會中組成多數聯盟的明確途徑。他的競爭對手似乎也沒有任何直接的選擇來爭取政府。

當天早些時候的磋商中，里夫林感嘆他看不到任何人組建聯盟的方法。

由前利庫德部長吉迪恩·薩阿（Gideon Sa'ar）領導的右翼新希望（New Hope）競選取代內塔尼亞胡（Netanyahu）。但是，該黨還排除了加入以耶什·阿迪德（Yesh Atid）酋長拉皮德（Lapid）為首的政府的局面，限制了向其推薦的方案。

會見里夫林（Rivlin）星期一與在13月3日選舉中贏得席位的所有13個政黨的代表分別進行了磋商，新希望（New Hope）代表拒絕認可任何人。

MK Yifat Shasha-Biton在解釋這一舉動時說，該黨支持Lapid和Yamina領導人Bennett之間的輪換任職，但是他們未能就此事達成協議，促使她的黨棄權。

她說：“對其中一個提出的任何建議都不會使我們更接近組建政府的現實。”

從左至右：Yesh Atid的黨魁Yair Lapid（Miriam Alster / Flash90）；Yamina黨魁Naftali Bennett；和新希望黨負責人基迪恩·薩爾（Yonatan Sindel / Flash90）

莎莎·比頓（Shasha-Biton）指出，里夫林（Rivlin）過去曾提議內塔尼亞胡（Natanyahu）和藍白黨領袖本尼·甘茨（Benny Gantz）組建一個統一政府，由他們輪流擔任總理，各黨派承擔同等責任。她敦促里夫林（Rivlin）邀請拉皮德（Lapid）和貝內特（Bennett）達成這樣的協議，在此之後，新希望（New Hope）將支持其中的一個。

但里夫林拒絕了該提議，稱此舉將是“政治干預”。他指出，耶什·阿蒂德（Yesh Atid）和亞米娜（Yamina）均未提出這樣的要求。

在新希望之後，聯合名單黨的代表會見了里夫林，沒有推薦任何人。

聯合名單領導人艾曼·奧德（Ayman Odeh）重申該黨反對內塔尼亞胡的原因，不僅是因為他對腐敗的審判，而且主要是因為以色列對巴勒斯坦人的控制，總理的經濟政策以及他所謂的破壞該國民主的企圖。

奧德（Odeh）說，他尊重拉皮德（Lapid），並指出葉希·阿迪德（Yesh Atid）領導人在競選期間發表的聲明說，聯合名單可以加入聯盟。但是他說，拉皮德與右翼政黨，即亞米娜（Yamina）的新興合作夥伴關係，意味著聯合名單無法支持耶什·阿蒂德（Yesh Atid）。

他說，他的政黨仍然願意認可拉皮德，但前提是他不與右翼政黨合作。如果沒有右翼Yamina，New Hope和Yisrael Beytenu，Lapid就沒有機會組建政府。

MK艾哈邁德·提比（MK Ahmad Tibi）說，拉皮德是一名“有價值的候選人”，聯合名單希望成為候選人在組成聯盟時能獲得第一槍的“決定性投票”。

提比說：“如果我們的每一票都是決定性的，我們將（為候選人）投票。”

Premier still lacks clear to path to ruling majority; right-wing New Hope, predominantly Arab Joint List and Ra’am don’t back anyone

By TOI STAFFToday, 9:19 pmUpdated at 10:46 pm 0

·

President Reuven Rivlin (L) meets with representatives from the New Hope party for consultations about who should form a new government, at the President's Residence in Jerusalem, April 5, 2021. (Mark Neyman.GPO)

The New Hope, Joint List and Ra’am parties on Monday refrained from endorsing any candidate for prime minister, ensuring that Likud leader Benjamin Netanyahu gained the most recommendations to form a government.

At the end of a day of consultations by party representatives with President Reuven Rivlin, Netanyahu had been endorsed by 52 MKs (Likud 30; Shas 9; United Torah Judaism 7; Religious Zionism 6).

Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid was recommended as prime minister by 45 MKs (Yesh Atid 17, Blue and White 8, Yisrael Beytenu 7, Labor 7, Meretz 6), and Naftali Bennett by the 7 members of his own Yamina party. The three parties who made no recommendation account for the final 16 Knesset seats (New Hope 6, Joint List 6 and Ra’am 4).

That meant Netanyahu was well-placed to be tasked by Rivlin with attempting to form a new coalition; Rivlin’s office said he will issue his decision on Tuesday.

Netanyahu still lacked a clear path to assembling a majority coalition in the 120-member Knesset. His rivals, too, did not appear to have any straightforward options for clinching a government.

Earlier in the day’s consultations, Rivlin lamented that he could not see a way for anyone to form a coalition.

The right-wing New Hope, led by former Likud minister Gideon Sa’ar, campaigned on replacing Netanyahu. But the party also ruled out joining a government headed by Yesh Atid chief Lapid, limiting its options for whom to recommend.

Meeting Rivlin, who consulted separately Monday with representatives of all 13 parties that won seats in the March 23 elections, New Hope representatives declined to endorse anyone.

Explaining the move, MK Yifat Shasha-Biton said the party backs a rotational premiership between Lapid and Yamina leader Bennett, but their inability to reach an agreement on the matter prompted her party to abstain.

“Any recommendation for one of them won’t move us closer to a reality in which it will be possible to form a government,” she said.

Left to right: Yesh Atid party leader Yair Lapid (Miriam Alster/Flash90); Yamina party chief Naftali Bennett; and New Hope party head Gideon Sa’ar (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Shasha-Biton noted Rivlin’s past proposal for Netanyahu and Blue and White leader Benny Gantz to form a unity government in which they rotate the premiership and their parties have equal responsibilities. She urged Rivlin to invite both Lapid and Bennett to work out such an agreement, after which New Hope would back one of them.

But Rivlin declined the proposal, saying such a move would be “political intervention.” He pointed out that neither Yesh Atid nor Yamina had made such a request.

Following New Hope, representatives of the Joint List party met with Rivlin and did not recommend anyone.

Joint List leader Ayman Odeh reiterated the party’s opposition to Netanyahu, not only because of his corruption trial, but primarily because of Israel’s control over the Palestinians, the prime minister’s economic policies, and his alleged attempts to undermine the country’s democracy.

Odeh said he respects Lapid, noting the Yesh Atid leader’s statement during the election campaign that the Joint List could join a coalition. But he said Lapid’s emerging partnerships with right-wing parties, namely Yamina, meant the Joint List could not endorse Yesh Atid.

He said his party was still willing to endorse Lapid, but only if he does not partner with right-wing parties. Lapid has no chance of forming a government without the right-wing Yamina, New Hope, and Yisrael Beytenu.

MK Ahmad Tibi said Lapid was a “worthy candidate” and that the Joint List hoped to be the “decisive vote” on which candidate would get first shot at forming a coalition.

“If every one of our votes had been decisive, we would have voted [for a candidate],” Tibi said.

President Reuven Rivlin (C) greets Joint List MKs Ayman Odeh (L) and Ahmad Tibi during consultations on who should form a new government, at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem, April 5, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/ Flash90)

The Islamist Ra’am party sat down with Rivlin after the Joint List and also declined to endorse anyone.

Before New Hope met with Rivlin, the left-wing Meretz party endorsed Lapid.

Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz expressed confidence Lapid could form a government of right-wing, centrist, and left-wing parties, but ruled out any partnerships with Likud or the far-right Religious Zionism.

As he kicked off the meetings in the morning, Rivlin lamented that “at the moment, I can’t see a way to form a coalition.”

President Reuven Rivlin meets with senior Likud lawmakers to hear their recommendation for who should be tasked with forming a government during consultations at the President’s Residence in Jerusalem on April 5, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/ Flash90)

He also said if his first choice to form a government fails, he may kick the mandate back to the Knesset to make a choice, rather than giving a second person a chance to do so first.

In stark comments, the president added that “after four election campaigns, democracy has exhausted itself.”

He also hinted at the possibility that Netanyahu’s corruption trial, taking place at the same time across town, could play a role in his decision on whom he would hand the mandate to.

The president met parties according to their factions’ size in the incoming Knesset, with the largest party — Likud — first and the smallest — Ra’am — last.

Following the discussions, Rivlin’s office said he would announce Tuesday which lawmaker he is tasking with forming the next government, based on whom he assesses has the best chance of doing so.

The meetings were being held at Rivlin’s official residence in Jerusalem and were streamed live on the president’s social media channels.

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