Zarif tours central Asia as US is in Vienna for talks

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said promoting “civilizational, historical and cultural” affinities with Central Asian states has been among Iran’s priorities.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN APRIL 7, 2021 20:35

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi shakes hands with Iran's Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif during a meeting at the Diaoyutai state guest house in Beijing, China December 31, 2019.

(photo credit: REUTERS)

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Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is looking east, rather than to Vienna, where talks are supposed to take place regarding the Iran deal. This symbolic move shows that Iran is putting on a strong face in Europe and showing it doesn’t need the talks to go anywhere. From April 5 to 8,

Iran’s top diplomat will be in Central Asia.

Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Saeed Khatibzadeh said promoting “civilizational, historical and cultural” affinities with Central Asian states has been among Iran’s priorities. Zarif will go to Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, the ministry announced on Saturday.

This is important because Iran increasingly wants to work with these states and China, Russia and Turkey to balance the US. China’s Press TV said that a recent deal with Beijing was a “game changer” for Tehran. This is a very clear statement.

The Islamic Republic is also saying that Washington must remove all sanctions in order to get back on board the Iran deal of 2015.

In short, Iran is messaging that it doesn’t need the US and has the upper hand.

Fars News said that Zarif “will hold talks with high-ranking officials of the region on bilateral relations and other regional and international issues of interest.” They will discuss the China deal and also other aspects of the region.

Talks in Dushanbe in Tajikistan are important. Iran has signaled in the past through international conferences how much importance it puts on Central Asia.

“Considering the signing of the document on long-term and comprehensive cooperation between Iran and China more than a week ago, Zarif’s visit to the region has received a lot of attention – not only in the domestic and foreign media, but also in the political circles and think tanks of the region,” said Iranian media.

According to Bakhtiar Irgshov, director of the Mana Research Initiatives Center, “if the document is reached between Iran and China, the US sanctions wall against Iran will be torn apart. And if Tehran joins the Eurasian Economic Union as a permanent member, the wall will be completely destroyed: It will collapse,” said Iran’s media.

“In his view, Iran could be the first country to show [that it can survive] full-blown global sanctions by the US and its allies. Iran’s experience can be used in other countries subject to US sanctions.”

Iran will focus on new transport links during the Central Asia visits. Therefore, Tehran will pay attention to the implementation of transportation infrastructure projects, including the “China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan” and “Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Iran” railways, the report said.

Iran will also talk counterterrorism. “Countries in the region are concerned that a number of terrorist and extremist groups are based in Afghanistan, and some have plans to infiltrate Central Asia,” said the report.

“This analyst of political issues in the region believes that increasing Iran’s role and presence in Central Asia is not in conflict with the interests of the most important players in this field, especially Russia and China, which should be understood by these parties,” the report said.

It’s quite clear Iran is making a play to build up links with China and Russia; Turkey is doing the same.

“If Tehran can act accurately and carefully, in the not too distant future we will see its active role in various areas of the region, with the great, joint, cultural and civilizational support of Iran and Central Asian countries,” said a commentator in Iran. “This issue will be quite achievable.”

Iran nuclear talks: How do goals of Rouhani, Biden and Netanyahu compare?

Rouhani and Biden will move toward a deal: Rouhani to save his legacy and Biden to clear off his table to deal with other issues. Netanyahu will do all he can to undermine such a deal.

By YONAH JEREMY BOB APRIL 8, 2021 18:28

Iranians burn a U.S. flag during a protest against President Donald Trump's decision to walk out of a 2015 nuclear deal, in Tehran, Iran, May 11, 2018.

(photo credit: REUTERS)

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The current indirect negotiations between the US and

Iran – with England, France, Germany, China and Russia shuttling between the two sides – is a tale of three leaders on different paths.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani called the nuclear talks in Vienna a “new chapter,” signaling the most positive response from his government since US President Joe Biden was elected.

Rouhani needs at least some kind of interim deal with America to try to save his legacy within Iran, as it was he who led the push for the 2015 nuclear deal only to have sanctions reimposed in 2018.

Rouhani’s eight years in power are over in June when an election is held.

The Biden administration has sent multiple positive signals about the talks, including US State Department spokesman Ned Price explicitly saying on Wednesday that Washington was ready to repeal any sanctions that were inconsistent with the 2015 deal.

Biden wants to rejoin the nuclear deal to remove a source of instability and instead focus his energies on fighting the coronavirus and bigger foreign policy challenges like China and Russia.

At the same time, he does not want to rush in and risk being attacked for being too weak.

He also hopes to have the ayatollahs sign an add-on to the 2015 deal, extending and strengthening some of its provisions.

Unlike Rouhani and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden also knows he will be around for at least another three-plus years, or longer should he seek a second term.

Netanyahu said on Wednesday that Israel would not be bound by any nuclear deal, before any such agreement has been signed or before the two sides are even sitting in the same negotiating room.

The table seems set for a rerun of Washington and Tehran cutting a deal that Israel loudly opposes.

MANY FORMER Mossad and IDF intelligence officials favor Jerusalem keeping its head down in public, instead focusing on private talks with the US to make any future deal better reflect Israeli interests. But their objections have not registered with Netanyahu.

Those officials view his 2015 opposition to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) as a failure, and harmful to Israel remaining a bipartisan issue in the US. They also object to his public attacks on Biden administration policy before a deal is even done.

Netanyahu’s supporters, who include top officials like Mossad director Yossi Cohen, either view Israels 2015 opposition as a success, in that it helped set a tough Trump administration policy on Iran, or think that this round is different.

The prime minister and his supporters say that this time, as compared with 2015, Iran has gotten too far ahead with advanced centrifuge development. That could make it easier for Tehran to break out to a nuclear bomb within weeks, without anyone noticing or having time to prepare – much worse than the worst-case scenario in 2015, when Iran would have needed a few months to a break out, giving enough time to the global community to mobilize and plan a preemptive strike.

IDF Chief of Staff Aviv Kohavi is a key issue for Netanyahu.

A major speech he gave in January signaled that he was 100% behind Netanyahu’s tougher tone with Iran, even at the price of clashing publicly with the US.

In contrast, the last three IDF chiefs have criticized Netanyahu about his aggressiveness toward Tehran, and especially on his banging heads with Washington in public. A recent interview with outgoing IDF intelligence analysis chief Brig.-Gen. Dror Shalom, and another by Maj. Gen. Tal Kelman, who runs a relatively new Iran-focused command, indicate a current approach also in line with the previous IDF chiefs.

Which begs the question: if there is still dissent and opposition within the security establishment against Netanyahu’s approach to Iran, will the prime minster be able to order a preemptive strike as early as he might prefer, or will he be blocked, as reportedly occurred in the past?

What if the US cuts an interim deal and then a full deal this year and next, and the CIA and other Western intelligence agencies then say the Islamic Republic has returned to compliance?

If there is internal Israeli opposition to attacking any time before Tehran is extremely close to the nuclear threshold, what options will Netanyahu have left?

Moreover, Netanyahu may not be prime minister in the coming months.

Would a rotating prime minister/unity government headed by Yamina’s Naftali Bennett and Yesh Atid’s Yair Lapid be ready to shake things up with the US?

Lapid is on record against fighting with the US in public, and New Hope Party leader Gideon Sa’ar, who would have a major role in such a unity coalition, has made similar statements.

At that point, Israel’s main pressure points would likely be cyber, and covert action.

Until at least June, the tone will be determined by Rouhani, Biden and Netanyahu. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei – Iran’s ultimate authority – is always in the background, but he has given Rouhani a chance to negotiate despite the US ignoring his many preconditions and deadlines.

Rouhani and Biden will do what they can to move toward a deal, even an interim one – Rouhani to save his legacy, and Biden to clear the table to deal with other issues.

In the meantime, Netanyahu will do all he can to undermine such a deal.

Meeting is first time Yamina leader allowed in premier’s home in a decade after reported ban by Sara Netanyahu; PM also meets Religious Zionism’s Smotrich

By TOI STAFF

Today, 7:26 pmUpdated at 11:50 pm 1

Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett arrives for coalition talks with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the PM's official residence in Jerusalem, on April 8, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Seeking a path to securing a ruling majority, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett Thursday evening in the first sit-down between the two since the premier was tasked with forming a coalition.

The meeting, which began at 8:30 p.m., was held at the prime minister’s official residence on Jerusalem’s Balfour Street. After the meeting, Netanyahu’s Likud and and Bennett’s Yamina parties put out a joint statement saying there was a “positive atmosphere” and the two men would meet again.

It was the first time Bennett had been allowed into the complex in over a decade, due to past tensions between him and Netanyahu. The premier’s wife, Sara Netanyahu, has reportedly long vetoed Bennett’s entry. But now Netanyahu depends on Bennett’s support if he wants to keep his hope of forming a government alive.

In consultations Monday with President Reuven Rivlin, Netanyahu received the endorsement from representatives of 52 lawmakers, the most of any candidate but short of a majority in the 120-seat Knesset. Yamina, with seven seats, recommended Bennett as prime minister, the only party to do so. Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid got 45 endorsements. New Hope, Ra’am and the Joint List, with 16 seats between them, did not recommend any candidate for prime minister. On Tuesday, a reluctant Rivlin

tasked

Netanyahu with forming a government.

Bennett on Tuesday said he was open to talks with Likud and called for a right-wing government, but didn’t commit to backing Netanyahu. Even with Yamina’s support, Netanyahu’s bloc would still be two seats short of a majority, with limited options.

Party leaders pose for a group picture after the swearing-in ceremony of the 24th Knesset, April 6, 2021. Seated from left are Supreme Court president Esther Hayut, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin (Marc Israel Sellem/POOL)

Speaking to reporters before entering the prime minister’s residence Thursday, Bennett said he was committed to forming a government and avoiding new elections.

“I come here with a lot of goodwill and I pledge to do everything I can to rescue Israel from the chaos and establish a good government for the State of Israel,” Bennett said. “It is time for national responsibility.”

Since being tasked with putting together a government, Netanyahu has met with the leaders of the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism parties, both of which had endorsed him.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (R) and then-Education Minister Naftali Bennett during a Knesset vote on December 21, 2016. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Before Thursday’s meeting with Bennett, Netanyahu met with MK Bezalel Smotrich, whose far-right Religious Zionism party has firmly aligned itself with the prime minister. It has, however, also said it will not sit in a coalition supported by the Islamist Ra’am party, the apparent only other option remaining for Netanyahu with all others having ruled out joining his coalition.

Speaking Wednesday before meeting with Netanyahu, United Torah Judaism No. 2. Yaakov Litzman hinted at the possibility that Religious Zionism could officially stay out of government while supporting it from the outside, in order not to be part of a coalition dependent on Arab Israeli parties.

Religious Zionism party leader Bezalel Smotrich at the party headquarters in Modi’in, on elections night, March 23, 2021. (Sraya Diamant/Flash90)

But in a Thursday evening interview before meeting with Netanyahu, Smotrich said it was dangerous to form a government reliant on “the Arabs.”

“My goal is to be a right-wing government. A government with Arabs will not be able to do anything right-wing,” Smotrich told Radio 103. “Do you think that Bibi will succeed in launching an operation in Gaza if there is a government with Abbas? You do not understand what it means to be hostage,” he said, using Netanyahu’s nickname.

Channel 12 news reported Thursday that one option Netanyahu was weighing was trying to convince Smotrich and Ra’am to come together just for one vote: forming a coalition that will then immediately fall, sending the country to its fifth elections in 2.5 years.

That would nullify the current coalition agreement, which gives Benny Gantz’s Blue and White and his bloc 50 percent control over the government and a veto over critical matters. Perhaps even more significantly, it would remove the threat of Gantz replacing Netanyahu as prime minister on November 17, which will happen automatically if no new coalition is formed by then.

Despite Shas and UTJ’s public expressions of support, television reports said they told Netanyahu in their meeting with him that they will not go with him to fifth elections.

The Haredi parties noted Bennett’s potential options for forming a government and predicted he would not forgo the opportunity to be prime minister, according to the Kan public broadcaster.

Ahead of Bennett’s meeting with Netanyahu, the network on Thursday cited an official in the ultra-Orthodox parties telling the Yamina party chief that they would consider joining a government without Netanyahu’s Likud if the status quo on religious matters was upheld.

The parties would reportedly consider the option if Bennett manages to ensure a government with secularists Lapid and Yisrael Beytenu chair Avigdor Liberman won’t change the current state of affairs regarding religion and state.

A report on Channel 12 news on Wednesday, however, said that the ultra-Orthodox parties had asked Netanyahu to do everything to prevent the formation of a government that would see Bennett and Lapid switch off as prime minister. Lapid and the Haredi parties have long been at loggerheads over the Yesh Atid chief’s support for introducing core curriculum studies into ultra-Orthodox schools and ending blanket exemptions to mandatory military service for seminary students.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with fellow MKs during the swearing-in ceremony of the 24th Knesset, April 6, 2021. (Alex Kolomoisky/POOL)

While Lapid got significantly more endorsements than Bennett, and his party has 17 seats to Yamina’s seven, he revealed Tuesday that he offered Bennett to serve as prime minister first in a rotation government. In apparent response to Lapid, Bennett said he would not head a left-wing coalition or abandon his principles.

New Hope, which campaigned on replacing Netanyahu as prime minister, has also voiced support for a power-sharing deal between Bennett and Lapid.

But throwing cold water on the idea that the Joint List could support such a coalition from the outside, Joint List chair Ayman Odeh said Thursday night that he would not support a government headed by Bennett.

“We will not agree under any circumstances to support or allow the formation of a government headed by Naftali Bennett,” Odeh told the Arab Radio Nas.

“We will not replace one racist with another racist,” he said.

If Netanyahu does not succeed in forming a government, the president can either task a second person with the attempt (for another period of 28 days and a possible additional 14), or send the mandate back to the Knesset, giving the legislature 21 days to agree on a candidate supported by 61 MKs.

If the president appoints a second person and that person also fails to assemble a coalition, the mandate automatically returns to the Knesset for the 21-day period. During that time, any MK is eligible to attempt to form a government.

Rivlin has indicated he may not give the mandate to a second candidate if Netanyahu fails, but rather immediately send it back to the Knesset.

At the end of the 21-day period, if no candidate has been agreed upon by 61 MKs, the new Knesset automatically disbands and the country heads to yet another election, the fifth in under three years.

Neither the pro- nor anti-Netanyahu bloc currently has a clear path to a coalition majority.

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