蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space Exploration

2021.04.17 國際新聞導讀-古巴世代交替、美國制裁俄羅斯驅逐外交官員、黎巴嫩瀕臨崩潰真主黨準備末日之後、以色列73年國慶祝賀


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2021.04.17 國際新聞導讀-古巴世代交替、美國制裁俄羅斯驅逐外交官員、黎巴嫩瀕臨崩潰真主黨準備末日之後、以色列73年國慶祝賀



以色列外交大臣阿什肯納齊(Ashkenazi)將與阿聯酋,希臘和塞浦路斯的外交部長開啟論壇。

議程上涉及經濟問題,安全,旅遊,與抗疫冠狀病毒分享成效以及建立國家彼此旅遊通行的「綠色通道」。

以色列外交大臣加比·阿什肯納齊4/15週四已前往塞浦路斯帕福斯會見了希臘,塞浦路斯和阿聯酋外交部長。

塞浦路斯外交部長尼克斯·赫里斯托都利迪斯(Nikos Christodoulides),希臘外交部長尼科斯·丹迪亞斯(Nikos Dendias),阿拉伯聯合酋長國外交部長阿卜杜拉·本·扎耶德(Abdullah bin Zayed)和阿什肯納齊計劃建立部長和外交官之間定期會晤的論壇,以促進雙方國家共同區域的戰略利益。

阿什肯納齊在四個人一起開會之前,他還將與塞浦路斯總統尼科斯·阿納斯塔西亞德斯(Nicos Anastasiades)見面。

美國製裁俄羅斯的“惡意”行為,莫斯科憤怒地做出反應

這些措施將俄羅斯公司列入黑名單,驅逐俄羅斯外交官,並限制俄羅斯主權債務市場,以確保激怒莫斯科。

由路透社

2021年4月15日22:01


美國總統喬·拜登發表講話,宣布將於2021年4月8日在美國華盛頓白宮的玫瑰園採取預防槍支暴力的行政行動

(照片來源:REUTERS / KEVIN LAMARQUE)

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華盛頓/莫斯科-美國周四對俄羅斯實施了一系列 制裁 ,包括遏制其主權債務市場,以懲罰其乾預去年的美國大選,網絡黑客,欺凌烏克蘭以及其他所謂的“惡性”行動。 。

美國政府將俄羅斯公司列入黑名單,驅逐俄羅斯外交官,並禁止美國銀行從俄羅斯中央銀行,國家財富基金和財政部購買主權債券。美國警告俄羅斯,可能會加重處罰,但表示不想升級。

俄羅斯外交部對此作出了憤怒的反應,召集美國大使進行外交修整,以告訴他“很快將採取一系列報復措施。” 工信部發言人還表示,可能的首腦會議可能會陷入困境。

俄羅斯否認干預美國大選,策劃了一次利用美國科技公司SolarWinds Corp滲透美國政府網絡的網絡黑客活動,並利用神經毒劑毒害克里姆林宮評論家阿列克謝·納瓦尼(Alexei Navalny)。

美國總統拜登週二與俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾·普京(Vladimir Putin)進行了交談,對這些問題以及俄羅斯軍隊在克里米亞和與烏克蘭接壤的邊界地區的集結提出了關切,儘管美國最高將領僅對此感到“中低”風險在接下來的幾週內俄羅斯入侵。

拜登還提議召開美俄首腦會議,他試圖在製止華盛頓認為的俄羅斯敵對行為的同時避免避免美俄關係的進一步惡化和保持合作空間之間取得平衡。

白宮發言人詹·普薩基(Jen Psaki)說:“我們的目標不是升級。我們的目標是為我們認為是俄羅斯政府不可接受的行動增加成本。”

在拜登的舉動中,拜登簽署了一項 行政命令, 授權美國政府制裁俄羅斯經濟的任何領域,並以此限制俄羅斯發行主權債務的能力,以懲罰莫斯科干預2020年美國大選。

從6月14日起,拜登禁止美國金融機構進入以盧布計價的俄羅斯主權債券的主要市場。自2019年以來,美國銀行已被禁止進入非盧布主權債券的主要市場。

但是,他沒有禁止他們在二級市場上購買此類債券,這一步驟可能會對俄羅斯債券和貨幣市場產生更為顯著的影響,由於製裁的消息傳出後才收回部分損失,這一舉措因此下跌。

美國財政部長珍妮特·耶倫(Janet Yellen)在一份聲明中說:“總統簽署了這項全面的新授權,以對付俄羅斯持續和不斷增長的惡性活動。”

財政部還將32個實體和個人列入黑名單,據稱這些實體和個人進行了俄羅斯政府指導的嘗試,以影響2020年美國總統大選以及其他“虛假信息和乾預行為”。

分析師:俄羅斯繼續對我們進行測試

與歐盟,英國,澳大利亞和加拿大合作,財政部還制裁了八名與俄羅斯對克里米亞的持續佔領和鎮壓有關的人,俄羅斯於2014年將其從烏克蘭吞併。

白宮表示,將驅逐華盛頓特區的10名俄羅斯外交官,包括俄羅斯情報部門的代表,並首次正式任命俄羅斯外國情報局(SVR)為SolarWinds Corp黑客的肇事者。該機構說,這些指控是“胡說八道”和“大張旗鼓”。

一位美國官員告訴記者,美國政府計劃制定一項新的行政命令,以加強其網絡安全性,並暗示其中可能包含加密和多因素身份驗證等元素。

白宮還表示,將對有報導稱俄羅斯向與塔利班有關聯的激進分子懸賞以殺害在阿富汗的美軍士兵做出回應。但是,它表示不會公開回應以保護美軍,並表示將通過“外交,軍事和情報渠道”處理此事。

它說,美國情報機構對這些報告的評估有“低至中等”的信心,部分原因是它們有時依賴被拘留者的不可靠證詞。

長期以來,俄羅斯一直拒絕對在阿富汗的美軍懸賞賞金的指控。

卡內基國際和平基金會智囊團分析師安德魯•魏斯(Andrew Weiss)懷疑美國的製裁措施會在短期內改變“具有很大競爭性和對抗性的關係”,或者從長遠來看會阻止俄羅斯。

他說:“如果拜登政府今天的精心調整的聲明會在任何一個方向上實質性地改變關係,我會感到驚訝。”他說,俄羅斯願意在某些問題上進行合作,但就烏克蘭而言,幾乎不可能就此達成共識或選舉干擾。

他補充說:“我預計新的製裁不會從根本上改變俄羅斯的風險計算,這是不現實的。” “可以預料,俄羅斯人將繼續探測和檢驗我們的決心。”

US sanctions Russia for 'malign' acts, Moscow reacts angrily

The measures blacklisted Russian companies, expelled Russian diplomats and placed limits on the Russian sovereign debt market in steps sure to anger Moscow.

By REUTERS

APRIL 15, 2021 22:01




US President Joe Biden speaks as he announces executive actions on gun violence prevention in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington, US, April 8, 2021

(photo credit: REUTERS/KEVIN LAMARQUE)

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WASHINGTON/MOSCOW - The United States on Thursday imposed a broad array of sanctions on Russia, including curbs to its sovereign debt market, to punish it for interfering in last year's US election, cyber-hacking, bullying Ukraine and other alleged "malign" actions.

The US government blacklisted Russian companies, expelled Russian diplomats and barred US banks from buying sovereign bonds from Russia's central bank, national wealth fund and finance ministry. The United States warned Russia that more penalties were possible but said it did not want to escalate.

The Russian foreign ministry reacted angrily, summoning the US ambassador for a diplomatic dressing-down to tell him "a series of retaliatory measures will follow soon." A ministry spokeswoman also said a possible summit could be imperiled.

Russia denies meddling in US elections, orchestrating a cyber hack that used US tech company SolarWinds Corp to penetrate US government networks and using a nerve agent to poison Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny.

US President Joe Biden on Tuesday spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin to raise concerns about these issues and the build-up of Russian forces in Crimea and along the border with Ukraine, though a top US general saw only a "low to medium" risk of a Russian invasion in the next few weeks.

Biden, who also proposed a US-Russian summit, is trying to strike a balance between deterring what Washington sees as hostile Russian behavior while avoiding a deeper deterioration in US-Russian ties and preserving some room for cooperation.

"Our objective here is not to escalate. Our objective here is to impose costs for what we feel are unacceptable actions by the Russian government," said White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki.

Among his moves, Biden signed an executive order authorizing the US government to sanction any area of the Russian economy and used it to restrict Russia's ability to issue sovereign debt to punish Moscow for interfering in the 2020 US election.

Biden barred US financial institutions from taking part in the primary market for rouble-denominated Russian sovereign bonds from June 14. US banks have been barred from taking part in the primary market for non-rouble sovereign bonds since 2019.

He did not, however, prohibit them from buying such debt in the secondary market, a step likely to have a far more dramatic effect on the Russian bond and currency markets, which fell as news of the sanctions seeped out before recovering some losses.

"The president signed this sweeping new authority to confront Russia's continued and growing malign activity," US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said in a statement.

The Treasury also blacklisted 32 entities and individuals that it said had carried out Russian government-directed attempts to influence the 2020 US presidential election and other "acts of disinformation and interference."

ANALYST: RUSSIA TO CONTINUE TESTING US

In concert with the European Union, Britain, Australia and Canada, the Treasury also sanctioned eight individuals associated with Russia's ongoing occupation and repression in Crimea, which Russia annexed from Ukraine in 2014.

The White House said it was expelling 10 Russian diplomats in Washington DC, including representatives of the Russian intelligence services and for the first time, formally named the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service (SVR) as the perpetrator of the SolarWinds Corp hack. The agency said the allegations were "nonsense" and "windbaggery."

The US government plans a new executive order to strengthen its cybersecurity, a US official told reporters, suggesting it could include such elements as encryption and multifactor authentication.

The White House also said it would respond to reports Russia had offered bounties to Taliban-linked militants to kill US soldiers in Afghanistan. However, it said it would not make its response public to protect US forces, saying the matter would be handled via "diplomatic, military and intelligence channels."

US intelligence agencies have "low to moderate" confidence in their assessment of these reports, in part because they rely on sometimes undependable testimony from detainees, it said.

Russia has long brushed off allegations of putting bounties on US soldiers in Afghanistan.

Andrew Weiss, a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace think tank analyst, was skeptical the US sanctions would change a "largely competitive and adversarial relationship" in the short term or deter Russia in the long term.

"I'd be surprised if today's very calibrated announcements by the Biden administration materially shift the relationship in either direction," he said, saying Russia was willing to cooperate on some issues but there was unlikely ever to be a meeting of the minds on Ukraine or election interference.

"I don't think it's realistic to expect the new sanctions will shift Russia's risk calculus in a fundamental fashion," he added. "It's to be expected that the Russians will keep probing and testing our resolve."

勞爾確認退休後,古巴的卡斯特羅時代將結束

老古巴人說,他們會懷念卡斯特羅的掌舵,儘管大多數人承認是時候傳遞接力棒了。

由路透社

2021年4月17日00:13


古巴第一書記勞爾·卡斯特羅·魯茲(Raul Castro Ruz)於2019年1月1日在古巴聖地亞哥的聖伊菲尼根亞公墓慶祝古巴革命60週年之際發表演講。在後面,是菲德爾·卡斯特羅(Fidel Castro)的墳墓。

(照片來源:路透社)

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哈瓦那-勞爾·卡斯特羅(Raul Castro)證實,他正在將全權的古巴共產黨的領導權移交給上週五舉行的年輕一代大會,結束了他本人和哥哥菲德爾(Fidel)長達60年的統治。

89歲的卡斯特羅(Castro)在為期四天的活動開幕式上發表講話時說,新的領導人是黨的忠實擁護者,他們在數十年的工作經驗上一直處於上升狀態,並且“充滿激情和反帝國主義精神”。

卡斯特羅曾在2016年的上屆黨代會上表示,這將是由“歷史一代”領導的最後一次競選,他們在塞拉·馬埃斯特拉(Sierra Maestra)進行了推翻,以推翻1959年左翼革命中美國支持的獨裁者。他已經在2018年移交給總統,以保護60歲的Miguel Diaz-Canel。

代表大會是該黨最重要的會議,每五年舉行一次,以審議政策並確定領導才能。

卡斯特羅對數百名黨代表說:“我堅信同胞的力量,模範性質和理解力,只要我活著,我就會腳踏實地地準備捍衛祖國,革命和社會主義。”在哈瓦那的會議中心。

這次大會是閉門會議,但摘錄正在國家電視台播出。

卡斯特羅(Castro)在2008年繼承菲德爾(Fidel)的領導後發起了一系列社會經濟改革以開放古巴,他稱讚迪亞斯·卡內爾(Diaz-Canel)為新一代領導人之一。

卡斯特羅(Castro)的橄欖綠色軍事疲勞與他的門徒的平民化形成了鮮明對比,人們普遍認為卡斯特羅(Castro)可以接替他出任政黨第一書記,這是古巴一黨制中最強大的職位。

老古巴人說,他們會懷念卡斯特羅的掌舵,儘管大多數人承認是時候傳遞接力棒了。

現年72歲的退休護士瑪麗亞·德爾·卡門·希門尼斯說:“這是另一個階段,但是如果沒有雙倍的照顧,我們會想念他的。”

卡斯特羅譴責在前總統唐納德·特朗普(Donald Trump)的領導下對美國的新一輪敵意。現任總統拜登(Joe Biden)發誓要撤銷特朗普的部分制裁措施,儘管白宮週五表示,古巴政策的轉變並不是他的首要外交政策重點之一。

卡斯特羅說,古巴已經準備好與美國建立新型的關係,而不必……放棄革命和社會主義的原則。

改革壓力

自從前恩人蘇聯解體以來,古巴的新領導人面臨著最嚴峻的經濟危機,同時有跡象表明,越來越多的人感到沮喪,特別是在年輕的古巴人中。

數十年曆史的美國貿易禁運和冠狀病毒大流行的收緊加劇了陷入困境的中央計劃經濟的流動性危機,由於委內瑞拉的援助減少,該計劃已經在苦苦掙扎。

這甚至導致基本商品的短缺,許多古巴人花費數小時排隊購買雜貨。

分析人士說,這些問題在公民心目中最為重要,尤其是只知道危機的年輕古巴人。

哈瓦那居民,31歲的吉列爾莫·埃斯特拉達(Guillermo Estrada)說:“我希望在沒有如此多的內部和外部限制的情況下擁有一個更好的未來。”

自從近年來互聯網訪問的擴展以來,古巴人越來越多地使用社交媒體作為表達批評的平台,而在線非國家媒體正在挑戰大眾媒體對國家的壟斷。

當局對公共場所的嚴格控制意味著抗議活動仍然相對罕見且規模較小,但在全國范圍內這種抗議活動正在增加。

嚴峻的經濟形勢迫使政府加快了該黨在2011年首次同意的改革的實施。根據經濟學家的說法,今年的貨幣改革使通貨膨脹率飆升了四到五倍。

哈瓦那已經使經濟的一部分美元化,從而使那些沒有從國外家庭匯款或沒有從旅遊中掙錢的人掙扎求生。這已經蠶食了平等,而平等是該黨合法性的支柱。

卡斯特羅周五表示,加快改革非常重要,正如他過去一樣,他譴責國有公司的“慣性,順從,缺乏主動性”。

但他說,以非國有部門為基礎的改革不應超出一定的限制,以免導致“社會主義的極大破壞和國家主權的終結”。

像數學老師羅吉利奧·馬卡多(Rogelio Machado)這樣的黨派激進分子說,他們相信,新一代將走那條棘手的繩索。

他說:“我們的國家需要改變,新一代將更加科學地準備繼續社會主義的道路。”

但是哈瓦那指責是美國支持的軟政變企圖的一部分,像“藝術家”路易斯·曼努埃爾·奧特羅·阿爾坎塔拉這樣的政府評論家說,喪鐘為這場革命敲響了警鐘。

他說:“勞爾將權力移交給了一個沒有什麼魅力的人,卻沒有多少民眾支持。”他在上演反對政府的最新表演時說,他在大會四天中一直坐在絞刑台上。“這使我們向民主邁出了一步。”

Castro era in Cuba to end as Raul confirms he's retiring

Older Cubans said they would miss having a Castro at the helm, although most acknowledged it was time to pass on the baton.

By REUTERS

APRIL 17, 2021 00:13


Cuban First Secretary of Communist Party Raul Castro Ruz gives a speech, on January 01, 2019, during the celebration of 60th Anniversary of Cuban Revolution at Santa Ifigenia Cemetery in Santiago de Cuba. At back, the Fidel Castro's tomb.

(photo credit: REUTERS)

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HAVANA - Raul Castro confirmed he was handing over the leadership of the all-powerful Cuban Communist Party to a younger generation at its congress that kicked off on Friday, ending six decades of rule by himself and older brother Fidel.

In a speech opening the four-day event, Castro, 89, said the new leadership were party loyalists with decades of experience working their way up the ranks and were "full of passion and anti-imperialist spirit."

Castro had said at the last party congress in 2016 it would be the last one led by the "historic generation" who fought in the Sierra Maestra to topple a US-backed dictator in the 1959 leftist revolution. He already handed over the presidency to protege Miguel Diaz-Canel, 60, in 2018.

The congress is the party's most important meeting, held every five years to review policy and fix leadership.

"I believe fervently in the strength and exemplary nature and comprehension of my compatriots, and as long as I live I will be ready with my foot in the stirrups to defend the fatherland, the revolution and socialism," Castro told hundreds of party delegates gathered at a convention center in Havana.

The congress is a closed-door event but excerpts are being broadcast on state television.

Castro, who launched a raft of social and economic reforms to open up Cuba after inheriting the leadership from Fidel in 2008, hailed Diaz-Canel as one of the new generation of leaders.

Castro's olive green military fatigues contrasted with the civil get-up of his protege, who is widely expected to succeed him as party first secretary, the most powerful position in Cuba's one-party system.

Older Cubans said they would miss having a Castro at the helm, although most acknowledged it was time to pass on the baton.

"It's another stage," said Maria del Carmen Jimenez, a 72-year old retired nurse, "but without a double we will miss him."

Castro denounced renewed US hostility under former President Donald Trump. Incumbent President Joe Biden has vowed to roll back some of Trump's sanctions, although the White House said on Friday a shift in Cuba policy was not among his top foreign policy priorities.

Castro said Cuba was ready for a "new type of relationship with the United States without… Cuba having to renounce the principles of the revolution and socialism."

PRESSURE TO REFORM

Cuba's new leaders face the worst economic crisis since the collapse of former benefactor the Soviet Union, while there are signs of growing frustration, especially among younger Cubans.

A tightening of the decades-old US trade embargo and the coronavirus pandemic have exacerbated a liquidity crisis in the ailing centrally planned economy, which was already struggling following a decline in Venezuelan aid.

That has led to shortages of even basic goods, with many Cubans spending hours lining up to buy groceries.

Those problems are foremost on citizens' minds, especially younger Cubans who have known only crisis, analysts said.

"I wish for a better future without so many internal and external restrictions," said Havana resident Guillermo Estrada, 31.

Since the expansion of internet access in recent years, Cubans are increasingly using social media as a platform to express criticism, while online non-state media are challenging the state monopoly of mass media.

Tight control of public spaces by the authorities means protests are still relatively rare and small-scale, but they are on the increase nationwide.

The dire economic situation has pushed the government to speed up the implementation of reforms first agreed by the party in 2011. A monetary overhaul this year sent inflation soaring four or fivefold, according to economists.

Havana has dollarized parts of the economy, leaving those who do not receive remittances from family abroad or who did not earn hard currency from tourism struggling to get by. That has eaten away at equality, a pillar of the party's legitimacy.

Castro said on Friday it was important to speed up reforms, denouncing - as he has in the past - "inertia, conformism, the lack of initiative" in state companies.

Yet he said reforms fomenting the non-state sector should not go beyond certain limits that would lead to the "very destruction of socialism and the end of national sovereignty."

Party militants like Rogelio Machado, a mathematics teacher, say they were confident the new generation was up to walking that tricky tightrope.

"Our country need changes and the new generation is more scientifically prepared to continue the path of socialism," he said.

But government critics like "artivist" Luis Manuel Otero Alcantara, whom Havana accuses of being part of a US-backed soft coup attempt, say the death knell is sounding for the revolution.

"Raul is passing over the power to someone with little charisma and who does not have much popular support," he said while staging his latest performance against the government, in which he sits in a garrote for the four days of the congress. "This takes us one step closer to democracy."

內塔尼亞胡(Natanyahu)至薩爾(Sa'ar):不要讓以色列有左翼政府,請回家

他在薩阿停留的時間比其他右翼領袖更長:“利庫德河就是你的家。你在這里長大,將張開雙臂歡迎你回來!

通過耶路撒冷郵報STAFF

2021年4月16日15:34




總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)出席2021年4月15日以色列獨立日星期四舉行的2021年國際青年聖經競賽。

(照片來源:MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

廣告

在副衛生部長Yoav Kisch(利庫德)在拉馬特甘(Ramat Gan)主持的活動上,總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡(Benjamin Netanyahu)呼籲右翼政黨領袖與他一起建立“以色列現在需要的正確的民族主義政府”。

內塔尼亞胡提到Yamina負責人Naftali Bennett,新希望黨負責人內塔尼亞胡的呼籲,要求薩爾加入利庫德領導的政府。

“就像總理說的那樣,我們將張開雙臂歡迎您,您是我們的一部分,”比坦發推文說。他補充說:“有一個穩定的右翼政府的真正機會。”


Netanyahu to Sa'ar: Don't let Israel have a left-wing gov't, come home

He paused on Sa'ar for longer than the other right-wing heads: "The Likud is your home. You grew up here, and you will be welcomed back with open arms!

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF APRIL 16, 2021 15:34Email Twitter Facebook fb-messenger

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the 2021 International Bible Contest for Youth on Thursday, Israel's Independence Day, April 15, 2021. (photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu at the 2021 International Bible Contest for Youth on Thursday, Israel's Independence Day, April 15, 2021.

(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM)

At an event hosted by Deputy Health Minister Yoav Kisch (Likud) in Ramat Gan, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called out to the right-wing party heads to join him in building "the right nationalistic government that Israel needs right now."

Netanyahu referred to Yamina head Naftali Bennett, New Hope Party head Gideon Sa'ar and Religious Zionist Party head Bezalel Smotrich.

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He focused on Sa'ar longer than the others: "The Likud is your home. You grew up here, and you will be welcomed back with open arms!

"This is not the time to form a left-wing government. Join us in establishing a stable right-wing government we need to ensure and fasten our future in our land."

The Likud's appeals didn't stop there.

The party sent to Sa'ar of a petition comprised of the signatures of 307 public figures belonging to the Likud party, ranging from mayors to organization heads, calling on Sa'ar to "come home!"

"Gideon, do the right thing for our movement, for our country, and for our land. Come home!"

真主黨在食物和燃料的支持下度過了黎巴嫩最嚴重的崩潰

據報導,來自真主黨合作社之一的貨架上擺滿罐頭食品的社交媒體上的照片上週散佈在黎巴嫩各地。

由路透社

2021年4月16日16:12



一張視圖顯示了2021年4月16日在黎巴嫩貝魯特郊區帶有真主黨口號的食品雜貨市場。

(照片來源:REUTERS / STRINGER)

廣告

三位知情人士告訴路透社,黎巴嫩的真主黨已經為壓裂國家的全面崩潰做好了準備,發放了定量配給卡,食品進口,藥物準備從其贊助國伊朗儲藏以供燃料使用。

此舉是對一場嚴重的經濟危機的回應,這標誌著武裝運動向其龐大的什葉派支持基地提供的服務有所擴展,該網絡已經擁有慈善機構,建築公司和養老金系統。

這些步驟突顯出人們對黎巴嫩國家崩潰的擔憂日益加劇,黎巴嫩當局無法再進口食物或燃料來維持正常運轉。他們強調了真主黨在解決緊急情況方面所起的日益重要的作用,否則政府將提供這些服務。

該計劃使黎巴嫩擔心,人們將不得不依靠政治派係來實現糧食和安全,就像許多人在1975-1990年內戰的民兵時期所做的那樣。

看守總理的顧問萊拉·哈圖姆(Leila Hatoum)在回答有關真主黨計劃的問題時表示,該國“無條件拒絕援助”,無論其政治如何。

親真主黨陣營的消息人士不願透露姓名,他說,針對潛在最壞情況的計劃已經加快步伐,因為在接下來的幾個月中補貼的迫在眉睫結束了,這加劇了飢餓和動蕩的陰影。

由於該國美元即將耗盡,黎巴嫩的貨幣已崩潰,目前尚無政府救助計劃。食品價格上漲了400%。

如今,在超市裡打架是很平常的事,人們在垃圾桶裡翻騰也是如此。本週在食品包裝上發生的鬥毆事件導致一個人死亡,另外兩個人受傷。

消息人士稱,真主黨的計劃將幫助其社區-不僅是其居民,而且主要是其所佔地區的什葉派居民-免受危機的最嚴重影響。分析人士說,這也可能會在核心支持者中帶來任何不安。

與盟友在議會和政府中佔多數的真主黨沒有回應置評請求。

其中一位消息人士說:“為下一階段的準備工作已經開始……這確實是一項經濟戰役計劃。”

大型網絡

消息人士稱,路透社看到的新配給卡已經幫助數百人以當地貨幣購買基本商品,其中大部分是伊朗,黎巴嫩和敘利亞的廉價商品,折扣高達40%,得到了該黨的補貼。

該卡以什葉派伊瑪目命名,可在貝魯特南部郊區和真主黨控制的黎巴嫩南部部分地區的合作社中使用,其中一些是新開業的。消息來源沒有詳細說明預算或收件人。

真主黨是一支由伊朗資助的準軍事部隊,批評者曾經稱其為“一個國家之內的國家”。近年來,真主黨越來越糾結於黎巴嫩的國家事務。

認為真主黨是恐怖組織的華盛頓已經加大製裁力度,以遏制其資金來源,包括據估計每年從德黑蘭獲得數億美元的資金。

伊朗的資助使真主黨比該國眾多政黨,包括反對其軍火庫的政黨更加富裕。一些派系已向其惠顧社區發放了援助籃子,但相比之下,伊朗支持的網絡仍然規模過大。

研究者約瑟夫·達厄爾(Joseph Daher)說:“他們都在做……但是,真主黨的範圍更大,更強大,擁有更多的資源來應對這場危機。” 他說:“這更多是為了限制災難的流行基礎。這意味著對真主黨的依賴尤其會增加。”

真主黨雖然發放了配給卡,但由於數十年的嫁妝和債務而陷入困境的國家一直在討論將這種卡用於貧困的黎巴嫩人的想法,將近一年而沒有採取任何行動。

部長們已經表示,需要議會批准已經推遲了內閣的信用卡計劃。

黑暗與飢餓

據報導,來自真主黨合作社之一的貨架上擺滿罐頭食品的社交媒體上的照片上週散佈在黎巴嫩各地。

法蒂瑪·哈穆德(Fatima Hamoud)五十多歲時說,配給卡允許她每月一次為八口之家購買穀物,石油和清潔產品。她說:“他們知道我們處境不佳。” “如果沒有他們,我們將在艱難的時刻做些什麼。”

什葉派的另一位消息人士說,真主黨已經填滿了倉庫,並發行了卡片,以擴大黨外的服務範圍,並填補了黎巴嫩市場的空白。在黎巴嫩市場,廉價的替代品比危機前更為普遍。

他說,該卡根據家庭人數為糖和麵粉等需求提供了配額。

這些貨物由真主黨支持,由聯營公司進口,或者通過與敘利亞的邊境免收關稅,自從參戰以來,真主黨軍隊就在那里站穩了腳跟,與伊朗一道支持大馬士革。

消息人士補充說,真主黨也有類似的藥品進口計劃。貝魯特南部郊區的一些藥劑師說,他們已經接受了有關伊朗和敘利亞新品牌的培訓,這些新品牌最近幾個月出現在貨架上。

兩名消息人士稱,該計劃包括從伊朗儲存燃料,原因是黎巴嫩能源部警告可能發生全面停電。這位高級官員說,真主黨正在清理隔壁敘利亞的燃料儲存空間。

這位高級官員說:“當我們進入黑暗和飢餓的舞台時,您會發現真主黨將選擇其後備力量……這是一個嚴重的決定。然後,真主黨將為該州填補空缺。” 他說:“如果涉及到這一點,該黨將採取預防措施,以防止出現空缺。”

With food and fuel, Hezbollah braces for the worst in Lebanon collapse

Photos on social media of shelves stacked with canned goods, reportedly from one of Hezbollah's co-ops, spread across Lebanon last week.

By REUTERS

APRIL 16, 2021 16:12




A view shows a market for groceries with a Hezbollah slogan on it, in Beirut suburbs, Lebanon April 16, 2021.

(photo credit: REUTERS/STRINGER)


Lebanon's Hezbollah has made preparations for an all-out collapse of the fracturing state, issuing ration cards for food, importing medicine and readying storage for fuel from its patron Iran, three sources familiar with the plans told Reuters.

The moves, responding to a grave economic crisis, would mark an expansion of services provided by the armed movement to its large Sh'ite support base, with a network that already boasts charities, a construction firm and a pension system.

The steps highlight rising fears of an implosion of the Lebanese state, in which authorities can no longer import food or fuel to keep the lights on. They underline Hezbollah's growing role in tackling the emergency with services that the government would otherwise provide.

The plan chimes with worries in Lebanon that people will have to rely on political factions for food and security, in the way many did in the militia days of the 1975-1990 civil war.

In response to a question about Hezbollah's plans, Leila Hatoum, an adviser to the caretaker prime minister, said the country was "in no condition to refuse aid" regardless of politics.

The sources from the pro-Hezbollah camp, who declined to be named, said the plan for a potential worst-case scenario has gathered pace as an end to subsidies looms in the coming months, raising the specter of hunger and unrest.

Lebanon's currency has crashed as the country runs out of dollars, with no state rescue in sight. Food prices have shot up 400%.

Fights in supermarkets are now commonplace, as are people rummaging through trash. A brawl over food packages this week killed one person and injured two others.

Hezbollah's plan would help shield its communities - not only members but also mainly Shi'ite residents of districts it dominates - from the worst of the crisis, the sources said. It could also contain any restlessness among core supporters, analysts say.

Hezbollah, which with its allies has a majority in parliament and government, did not respond to a request for comment.

"The preparations have begun for the next stage…It is indeed an economic battle plan," said one of the sources, a senior official.

OUTSIZED NETWORK

Already, the new ration card, seen by Reuters, helps hundreds of people buy basic goods in the local currency - largely Iranian, Lebanese and Syrian cheaper items at a discount up to 40%, subsidized by the party, the sources said.

The card - named after a Shi'ite Imam - can be used at co-ops, some of them newly opened, in the southern Beirut suburbs and parts of southern Lebanon where Hezbollah holds sway. The sources did not elaborate on the budget or recipients.

An Iran-funded paramilitary force which critics once called "a state within a state," Hezbollah has grown more entangled in Lebanese state affairs in recent years.

Washington, which deems Hezbollah a terrorist group, has ramped up sanctions to choke off its sources of funding, including what it estimates as hundreds of millions of dollars from Tehran every year.

Iranian funding keeps Hezbollah better off than many in the country's mosaic of parties, including those opposed to its arsenal. Some factions have issued aid baskets to their patronage communities, but the Iran-backed network remains outsized in comparison.

"They're all doing it…But Hezbollah's scope is much bigger and more powerful, with more resources to deal with the crisis," said Joseph Daher, a researcher who wrote a book on Hezbollah's political economy. "This is more about limiting the catastrophe for its popular base. It means the dependency on Hezbollah particularly will increase."

And while Hezbollah gives ration cards, the state, hollowed out by decades of graft and debt, has talked up the idea of such a card for poor Lebanese for nearly a year without acting.

Ministers have said the need for parliamentary approval has stalled the cabinet's plan for cards.

DARKNESS AND HUNGER

Photos on social media of shelves stacked with canned goods, reportedly from one of Hezbollah's co-ops, spread across Lebanon last week.

Fatima Hamoud, in her 50s, said the ration card allows her once a month to buy grains, oil and cleaning products for a household of eight. "They know we're in bad shape," she said. "Without them, what would we have done in these tough times."

A second Shi'ite source said Hezbollah had filled up warehouses and launched the cards to extend services outside the party and plug gaps in the Lebanese market, where cheap alternatives are more common than pre-crisis.

He said the card offers a quota, based on the family size, for needs like sugar and flour.

The goods are backed by Hezbollah, imported by allied companies or brought in without customs fees through the border with Syria, where Hezbollah forces have a footing since joining the war to back Damascus alongside Iran.

The source added that Hezbollah had similar plans for medicine imports. Some pharmacists in the southern suburbs of Beirut said they had received training on new Iranian and Syrian brands that popped up on the shelves in recent months.

Two of the sources said the plan included stockpiling fuel from Iran, as Lebanon's energy ministry warns of a possible total blackout. The senior official said Hezbollah was clearing storage space for fuel in next-door Syria.

"When we get to a stage of darkness and hunger, you will find Hezbollah going to its back-up option…and that is a grave decision. Then Hezbollah will fill in for the state," said the senior official. "If it comes to it, the party would've taken its precautions to prevent a void."

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蘇老師講解國際新聞、中東與中亞歷史、中國事務、太空知識的頻道。 Diplomat's daily news review and history research on Middle East and Central Asia, China Affairs and Space ExplorationBy 蘇育平 Yuping SU

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