為什麼伊朗人不會投票：調查顯示巨大的政治幻滅

現代極權主義與伊朗伊斯蘭神權政治的結合，加上一位至高無上的領袖，只能是一場投票的奇觀。

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2021 年 6 月 10 日 15:53

伊朗總統哈桑魯哈尼在德黑蘭總統選舉期間投票

（圖片來源：TIMA VIA REUTERS）

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在我伊朗slamic共和國 自1979年成立根據定義從未組織自由和公正的選舉，現代極權主義和伊朗的伊斯蘭神權統治，與最高領袖的組合，不能讓超過投票奇觀，而不是選舉這個詞的正常意義。

然而，大多數伊朗人已經利用選舉平台來表達他們的存在感。他們在 1997 年隨著所謂的改革派的崛起、在有爭議的 2009 年選舉和隨後的大規模抗議中以及在 2017 年現任總統哈桑·魯哈尼以超過 70% 的投票率再次當選時做到了這一點。. 然而，人口的表達方式現在已經發生了變化。許多伊朗人表示，他們將拒絕參加即將舉行的選舉，攻擊該政權僅存的合法性支柱。

魯哈尼在連任兩屆後卸任，總統選舉將於 6 月 18 日舉行。領先者是易卜拉欣·賴西（Ebrahim Raisi），他是一名極端保守派和司法機構負責人，他負責下令在 1988 年處決數千名政治犯。伊朗的由最高領導人阿里哈梅內伊和司法機構負責人賴西本人任命的 12 名成員組成的監護委員會必須批准候選人。被拒絕的人包括前總統馬哈茂德·艾哈邁迪內賈德。

我們的研究機構伊朗態度分析和測量小組 (GAMAAN) 在 5 月 27 日至 6 月 3 日期間對即將舉行的投票進行了在線調查。結果顯示，伊斯蘭共和國正面臨有史以來最低的投票率，只有 25% 的受訪者表示他們會投票。

我們的估計投票率低於國營伊朗學生投票機構 (ISPA) 公佈的官方數字，後者預測投票率低於 40%。這種差異可能一方面是由於傳統電話和現場抽樣之間的差異，另一方面是由於在線抽樣的圖表較少。

從俄羅斯和中國等其他專制國家的研究中，我們知道，當受訪者使用傳統的、離線的調查方法與他們取得聯繫時，他們不太願意如實回答。然後可以使用誇大的投票數來驗證潛在的欺詐結果，從而使獨裁者受到尊重。

這就是 GAMAAN 使用匿名數字平台進行調查的原因，這讓人們感到足夠安全，可以分享他們對政治敏感問題的真實看法。

伊朗的互聯網普及率可與德國相媲美。根據最新統計，有 7700 萬移動互聯網用戶，大約 74% 的 18 歲以上伊朗人至少使用一個社交媒體平台。因此，有可能在網上接觸到相當大比例的伊朗人並詢問他們的觀點。

我們對宗教、死刑和媒體受歡迎程度進行了幾次此類調查，深入了解伊朗互聯網用戶的行為，這些行為有助於瞄準遍布全國的適當範圍的數字渠道。

在為我們最近的調查清理數據後，我們得到了居住在伊朗的 68,000 名伊朗人的樣本。該樣本使用五個人口統計變量、2017 年總統選舉中的投票行為以及有關政治偏好的新調查數據，針對 19 歲以上識字的伊朗人的目標人群進行加權和平衡。

權重的關鍵是親政權受訪者的參與，他們的缺席會影響結果。在本次調查中，我們吸引了 9,000 名受訪者，他們在 2017 年的選舉中投票支持保守派候選人 Raisi。

什麼可以解釋投票率從 2017 年的 70% 以上下降到今天不到 30% 的預期？絕大多數受訪者（71%）表示，他們棄權的主要原因是“伊斯蘭共和國選舉的不自由和無效性”。只有 7% 的人將監護委員會最近“取消我首選候選人的資格”作為他們的理由。

在我們於 2019 年 4 月進行的另一項調查中，79% 的受訪者表示他們將在自由公投中投反對票。那是在當年 11 月的血腥鎮壓導致約 1,500 人死亡之前，以及伊斯蘭革命衛隊承認在 2020 年擊落了一家烏克蘭客運航空公司之前。

我們最新的結果表明，大多數人想要擺脫神權制度的願望沒有改變。大約一半的人支持將政權更迭作為有意義的變革的先決條件，四分之一的人支持更溫和地擺脫當前體制。只有 8% 的人明確支持伊斯蘭共和國，認為自己是改革派，只有 13% 的人認為自己是原則主義者，支持伊斯蘭革命和最高領袖。

我們並不是唯一擁有此類發現的群體。最近的一項國營調查顯示，改革派和原則派加起來大約有 20% 的支持者。受人尊敬的世界價值觀調查於 2020 年夏天在伊朗進行了現場調查，發現原則主義者的基數不超過 16%。

由於擔心預期的低投票率，最高領導人趕緊將投票行為描述為宗教義務。但如果伊朗人的政治幻滅變成了宗教失望，數百萬人放棄或改變了他們的信仰，那麼這位領導人就將選舉變成了對國家宗教信仰的考驗。正是這種宗教和政治的糾葛是伊朗人不滿的核心，而政權的管理不善、腐敗和經濟制裁只會加劇這種糾葛。

與其他專制政權一樣，伊斯蘭共和國需要足夠高的投票率，以便其外交部長可以在國外宣傳合法政府的形象。通過抵制選舉，普通伊朗人拒絕參與這個政治舞台。現在是國際社會承認他們對伊朗進行真正變革的意願的時候了。

Why Iranians won’t vote: Survey reveals massive political disenchantment

The combination of modern totalitarianism and Iran’s Islamic theocracy, with a supreme leader, cannot allow for more than a voting spectacle.

By REUTERS

JUNE 10, 2021 15:53

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani casts his vote during the presidential election in Tehran

(photo credit: TIMA VIA REUTERS)

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The Islamic Republic of Iran has never organised free and fair elections since its establishment in 1979. By definition, the combination of modern totalitarianism and Iran’s Islamic theocracy, with a supreme leader, cannot allow for more than a voting spectacle, rather than elections in the normal sense of the word.

Yet, a majority of Iranians have used the platform of an election to make their presence felt. They did this in 1997 with the rise of the so-called Reformists, in the disputed 2009 elections that were followed by mass protests, and in 2017 when the current president, Hassan Rouhani, was re-elected with a turnout of more than 70%. However, the population’s mode of expression has now shifted. Many Iranians say they will refuse to participate in the upcoming elections, hacking at the regime’s sole remaining pillar of legitimacy.

Rouhani is standing down after serving two terms and presidential elections are taking place on June 18. The frontrunner is Ebrahim Raisi, an ultra-conservative and head of the judiciary who is responsible for ordering the execution of several thousands of political prisoners in 1988. Iran’s Guardian Council, a body of 12 members appointed by the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, and the head of the judiciary, Raisi himself, must approve the candidates. Among those rejected were former president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

Our research institute, the Group for Analyzing and Measuring Attitudes in Iran (GAMAAN), conducted an online survey between May 27 and June 3 on the upcoming vote. The results show that the Islamic Republic is facing its lowest turnout ever, with only 25% of respondents saying they would vote.

Our estimated turnout is lower than the official numbers published by the state-run Iranian Students Polling Agency (ISPA), which predicts a turnout lower than 40%. The discrepancies are likely to be caused by the differences between traditional telephone and on-site sampling on the one hand, and the less charted territories of online sampling, on the other.

From research in other authoritarian countries such as Russia and China, we know that respondents are much less willing to answer truthfully when they are reached using conventional, offline, survey methods. Inflated polling numbers can then be used to validate potentially fraudulent results to give autocrats an air of respectability.

That’s why GAMAAN conducts surveys using an anonymous digital platform, which makes people feel safe enough to share their true opinions about politically sensitive matters.

Iran’s internet penetration rate is comparable with Germany. According to the most recent statistics, there are 77 million mobile internet subscribers and roughly 74% of Iranians over 18 use at least one social media platform. So it’s possible to reach a substantial percentage of Iranians online and ask about their views.

We have conducted several such surveys on religion, capital punishment, and media popularity, gaining insights into Iranian internet users’ behavior that help target an appropriate range of digital channels spread across the country.

After cleaning the data for our most recent survey, we were left with a sample of 68,000 Iranians living in Iran. The sample was weighted and balanced to the target population of literate Iranians aged above 19, using five demographic variables, voting behavior in the 2017 presidential elections, and new survey data on political preferences.

Crucial for the weighting is the participation of pro-regime respondents, whose absence would skew the results. In this survey, we attracted 9,000 respondents who voted for the conservative candidate, Raisi, in the 2017 elections.

What can explain the turnout drop, from over 70% in 2017 to an expectation of less than 30% today? The vast majority of our respondents, 71%, said the main reason they were abstaining was because of “the unfree and ineffective nature of elections in the Islamic Republic.” Only 7% reported the Guardian Council’s recent “disqualification of my preferred candidate” as their reason.

In another survey we conducted in April 2019, 79% of respondents said they would vote no to the Islamic Republic in a free referendum. This was before the bloody crackdowns in November that year which led to the death of an estimated 1,500 people, and before the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps admitted shooting down a Ukrainian passenger airline in 2020.

Our latest results show that the majority’s desire to get rid of the theocratic system hasn’t changed. Around half of the population supports regime change as a precondition for meaningful change, and a quarter supports a softer transition away from the current system. Only 8% explicitly supported the Islamic Republic by identifying as Reformist, and only 13% saw themselves as Principlists, who support the Islamic Revolution and the supreme leader.

We are not the only group with such findings. A recent state-run survey revealed that Reformists and Principlists together have about 20% of supporters. The respectable World Values Survey conducted an on-site survey in Iran in the summer of 2020 and found that the Principlists’ base was no larger than 16%.

Worried about the expected low turnout, the supreme leader hurried to describe the act of voting as a religious duty. But if Iranians’ political disenchantment has turned into religious disappointment, with millions abandoning or changing their faith, the leader has turned the elections into a test of the nation’s religiosity. It is this entanglement of religion and politics that is at the heart of Iranians’ discontent, and which the regime’s mismanagement and corruption and the economic sanctions have only exacerbated.

Like other authoritarian regimes, the Islamic Republic needs a high enough turnout so that its foreign minister can sell an image of a legitimate government abroad. By boycotting what are nothing but staged elections, ordinary Iranians are refusing to participate in this political theater. It’s time the international community recognized their will to effect a real change in Iran.

該黨繼續聲稱亞米娜領導人“從右翼手中劫持了選票”，錯誤地將他的行為與美國選民改變了選民對總統的選擇進行了比較

通過TOI人員今天，晚上 10:05

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2021 年 6 月 6 日，本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理在耶路撒冷舉行的表彰醫務工作者和醫院抗擊 COVID-19 流行病的儀式上發表講話。（Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90）

總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡的利庫德集團週四對總理關於以色列“選舉舞弊”的說法進行了澄清，這成為國際頭條新聞，並與美國前總統唐納德·特朗普相提並論。

在總理轉發的一條英文推文中，該黨首次表示內塔尼亞胡致力於“和平的權力移交”。

然而，他的辦公室拒絕說明總理是否會出席週一的傳統首相交接儀式，與即將上任的總理納夫塔利·貝內特的過渡簡報尚未安排，政府宣誓就職不到三天就要進行。

貝內特在與 Yesh Atid 黨的反對黨領袖 Yair Lapid 以及反對內塔尼亞胡的眾多政黨達成聯盟協議後，將成為總理，從鴿派的梅雷茨到支持吞併西岸的新希望黨和伊斯蘭黨 Raam 。根據協議，貝內特將擔任總理兩年，然後在剩餘任期內將職位交給Lapid。

週日，內塔尼亞胡在利庫德集團的一次派系會議上說：“我們見證了該國歷史上最大的選舉舞弊，在我看來，這也是民主國家的歷史。”

這些評論和其他評論被美國有線電視新聞網收錄，該公司週三發布了一段視頻，其中包含內塔尼亞胡和特朗普的並排鏡頭，使用幾乎相同的言辭駁斥選舉結果的有效性，貶低媒體，就選舉結果的存在提出主張一個“深層國家”，並承諾與取代他們的新政府作鬥爭。

利庫德集團週四的聲明說：“當內塔尼亞胡總理談到‘選舉舞弊’時，他並不是指以色列的計票程序，他對此完全有信心。”

利庫德集團的聲明試圖使內塔尼亞胡與 1 月 6 日襲擊美國國會大廈期間所表現出的暴力保持距離。

“權力的和平過渡也是毫無疑問的，”它說。“以色列的權力一直在和平轉移，而且永遠都會有。”

然而，利庫德集團支持內塔尼亞胡對“選舉舞弊”的描述來描述取代他的聯合政府的形成，稱它準確地描述了貝內特違反選舉前承諾，不與 Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid 和伊斯蘭主義者 Ra' 組成政府。

2020 年 3 月 4 日，總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡（右）與時任國防部長亞米納黨領袖納夫塔利·貝內特交談。（Yonatan Sindel/Flash90）

利庫德說：“貝內特劫持了右翼的選票並將它們轉移到左翼，這與他的承諾直接背道而馳。” “如果這不是欺詐，我們不知道是什麼。”

去年，內塔尼亞胡幫助組建了一個政府，該政府違反了藍白黨主席本尼·甘茨（Benny Gantz）做出的選舉前承諾，後者發誓不與利庫德集團主席坐在一起。

利庫德集團錯誤地聲稱“貝內特的行為類似於美國選民違背選民的意願單方面改變選民對總統的選擇。”

美國和以色列的選舉制度非常不同。選民不會為總理投票，而是為一個政黨投票，然後議會投票信任總理。政黨沒有義務投票支持一位總理而不是另一位總理。

內塔尼亞胡的政黨並沒有停止對亞米納主席的攻擊，並呼籲公眾抗議未來的團結政府。

總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡譴責競爭對手納夫塔利·貝內特新宣布的與亞伊爾·拉皮德建立聯合政府的申請，這將在 2021 年 5 月 30 日結束他擔任總理的 12 年。（Yonatan Sindel/Pool via AP）

在本週早些時候接受右翼 Channel 20 網絡採訪時，內塔尼亞胡稱貝內特是一個連環騙子。

內塔尼亞胡在談到即將取代他的新生聯盟時說：“這個政府內部有深層政府，”用這個詞來形容所謂的官僚陰謀反對民選領導人，特朗普在任期間廣為宣傳。

內塔尼亞胡一再指責貝內特向公眾撒謊，一度稱他為“慣犯”。他聲稱新政府比以色列 2005 年從加沙撤軍“更危險”，他說這導致了哈馬斯火箭襲擊，以及奧斯陸和平協議使巴勒斯坦人在西岸享有有限的自治權。

Party continues to claim Yamina leader ‘hijacked votes from the right,’ falsely compares his actions to US electors switching voters’ choice of president

By TOI STAFFToday, 10:05 pm

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks during a ceremony to honor medical workers and hospitals for their fight against the COVID-19 epidemic, in Jerusalem, on June 6, 2021. (Olivier Fitoussi/ Flash90)

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party on Thursday issued a clarification of the premier’s claims of “election fraud” in Israel that made international headlines and drew comparisons to former US president Donald Trump.

In an English tweet thread retweeted by the premier, the party for the first time said that Netanyahu is committed to a “peaceful transition of power.”

However, his office has refused to state whether the prime minister will be attending the traditional handover ceremony of the premiership on Monday, and a transitional briefing with incoming premier Naftali Bennett has not yet been scheduled, with the government swear-in less than three days away.

Bennett is set to become prime minister after he reached a coalition deal with opposition leader Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid party and a wide array of parties aligned against Netanyahu, ranging from the dovish Meretz to the pro-annexation New Hope and the Islamist party Ra’am. Under the agreement, Bennett will serve as prime minister for two years before handing the office to Lapid for the remainder of the term.

On Sunday, Netanyahu told a Likud faction meeting, “We are witnesses to the greatest election fraud in the history of the country and in my opinion, the history of democracies.”

Those comments and others were picked up by CNN, which published a segment on Wednesday featuring side-by-side footage of Netanyahu and Trump using nearly identical rhetoric to dismiss the validity of election results, to disparage the media, to make claims regarding the existence of a “deep state” and to promise to fight the new government formed to replace them.

Likud’s Thursday statement said: “When Prime Minister Netanyahu speaks about ‘election fraud,’ he isn’t referring to the vote-counting process in Israel, in which he has complete confidence.”

The Likud statement sought to distance Netanyahu from violence such as that exhibited during the January 6 storming of the US capitol.

“There is also no question about the peaceful transition of power,” it said. “There always has been a peaceful transfer of power in Israel and there always will be.”

However, Likud stood by Netanyahu’s characterization of “election fraud” to describe the formation of the unity government replacing him, saying it accurately depicted Bennett’s breaking of pre-election promises not to form a government with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid and the Islamist Ra’am party.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, right, speaks with then-defense minister Yamina party leader Naftali Bennett, March 4, 2020. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

“Bennett hijacked votes from the right and shifted them to the left in direct contradiction to his pledges,” Likud said. “If this isn’t fraud we don’t know what is.”

Last year, Netanyahu helped form a government that violated the pre-election promises made by Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz, who had vowed not to sit with Likud chairman.

Likud falsely claimed that “Bennett’s actions are akin to US electors unilaterally switching the voters’ choice for president against the will of the electorate.”

The American and Israel election systems are very different. Voters do not cast ballots for a prime minister, but for a party, with the Knesset then voting confidence in a prime minister. Parties are in no way obligated to vote for one prime minister over another.

Netanyahu’s party has not let up in its attacks on the Yamina chairman and has called on the public to protest against the prospective unity government.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu condemns rival Naftali Bennett’s newly declared bid to build a unity government with Yair Lapid that would end his 12 years as prime minister, May 30, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/ Pool via AP)

In an interview with the right-wing Channel 20 network earlier this week, Netanyahu called Bennett a serial liar.

“The deep state is deep within this government,” Netanyahu said of the nascent coalition set to replace him, using a term for a supposed conspiracy of bureaucrats working against the elected leadership, popularized by Trump during his time in office.

Netanyahu repeatedly accused Bennett of lying to the public, calling him at one point a “habitual liar.” And he claimed that the incoming government was “more dangerous” than Israel’s 2005 pullout from Gaza, which he said resulted in Hamas rocket attacks, and the Oslo peace accords that gave the Palestinians limited self-rule in the West Bank.

Yisrael Beytenu 的負責人與 Lapid、Bennett 相矛盾，後者堅稱對極端正統黨派仍然敞開大門；還要求立即出台可能激怒哈雷迪姆的立法

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Yisrael Beytenu 主席 Avigdor Liberman 在 2021 年 5 月 31 日的以色列議會派系會議上發表講話。 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

據報導，Yisrael Beytenu 主席 Avigdor Liberman 週二告訴他的右翼世俗黨成員，以色列議會的兩個極端正統黨派在任何時候都不會成為即將上任的聯合政府的一部分，儘管高級聯盟領導人斷言 Haredi 石板仍然存在歡迎加入。

“極端正統派人士不可能加入政府。任何聲稱極端正統派可以加入這個政府的人都是在欺騙自己和其他人，”利伯曼在一次派系會議上說，根據周三第 12 頻道的報導。

這些評論似乎是針對 Yamina 主席和候任總理 Naftali Bennett，以及 Yesh Atid 主席和候任外交部長 Yair Lapid 的，他們都堅稱他們沒有關閉與 Haredi 政黨結盟的大門，即使未來的政府目前擁有大多數世俗派系，沒有強硬的宗教派系。

特別是貝內特被認為有興趣將 Shas 和 United Torah Judaism 納入他的聯盟，以擴大右翼政黨的集團。

2021 年 6 月 8 日，聯合托拉猶太教黨主席 Moshe Gafni（與 UTJ MK Yaakov Litzman 和 Shas 負責人 Aryeh Deri 一起）在耶路撒冷議會舉行了新聞發布會。 (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

然而，在周二的新聞發布會上，Shas 和 UTJ 的領導人幾乎都放棄了這種可能性，他們對貝內特發起了驚人的攻擊。

隨著所謂的變革政府將於週日宣誓就職，極端正統派自 2015 年以來首次走向反對派，哈雷迪領導人將貝內特稱為“邪惡”，並聲稱他的新政府的政策將危及這個猶太國家。

即將成為以色列第一位東正教總理的貝內特認為這次襲擊令人尷尬和精神錯亂，是“歇斯底里的爆發”，並發誓他將保護該國的宗教生活。

根據第 12 頻道的報導，利伯曼在周二的派系會議上更進一步，稱他將要求採取措施建立一個調查梅隆災難的州委員會，並要求另一個實施目前凍結的協議，使西牆的多元化祈禱亭正式化，將在新生政府的第一次內閣會議上介紹。

這兩項努力都可能進一步激怒極端正統黨派，這迫使本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理收回政府對所謂的科特爾妥協的承諾，此外還強烈反對對梅龍災難進行高級別調查，導致 45哈雷迪朝聖者於 4 月死亡。批評者指責極端正統派立法者阻止調查，因為他們擔心這可能會暴露社區領導層腐敗的決策過程，導致悲劇發生。

在山上的 Lag B'Omer 慶祝活動期間，以色列救援部隊和警察在致命的擠壓現場。2021 年 4 月 30 日，以色列北部的梅隆。 (David Cohen/Flash90)

另外，週三，第 12 頻道聲稱揭露了拉皮德和貝內特之間的聯盟協議中的一個漏洞，這將允許亞米納主席在耶什阿蒂德領導人在兩年內接替他擔任總理之前解散政府。

目前的協議 - 在政府宣誓就職之前不會生效 - 要求貝內特 - 拉皮德聯盟的所有 61 名成員在一開始就支持立法，該立法將在兩年內將衛兵換崗寫入法律。上屆政府成立之初就通過了一項類似的法律，以確保藍白黨主席本尼·甘茨（Benny Gantz）在一年半後取代內塔尼亞胡。（內塔尼亞胡在他們的協議中發現了一個不同的漏洞，如果未能通過預算，政府就會崩潰，並在甘茨有機會成為總理之前用它推翻聯盟。）

但是，Blue and White-Likud 政府通過的這項法律需要 70 MK 才能被推翻，因為 70 MK 是投票支持該立法的聯盟的一部分。另一方面，貝內特和拉皮德的聯盟在議會中僅以 61-59 佔多數。因此，第 12 頻道表示，取消保護輪換協議的立法只需要 61 個 MK。

鑑於目前以色列議會中有 65 名右翼 MK，如果內塔尼亞胡辭去利庫德集團領導人的職務，他們可能願意共同組建聯盟，而他們可以通過簡單地廢除輪換保護機制來做到這一點。拉皮德宣誓就職前的法律。

不過，分析人士指出，拉皮德與貝內特之間的信任遠大於內塔尼亞胡與甘茨之間的信任。貝內特承諾遵守協議，允許拉皮德在兩年內接替他。此外，鑑於該黨的許多支持者反對貝內特組建聯合政府的決定，如果在不久的將來再次舉行選舉，亞米娜可能會表現不佳。

（LR）Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid、Yamina 主席 Naftali Bennett 和 New Hope 負責人 Gideon Sa'ar 於 2021 年 6 月 6 日在特拉維夫舉行的潛在聯盟領導人會議上。（Ra'anan Cohen）

同樣在周三，第 13 頻道報導稱，聯盟的八個政黨之間沒有重大分歧，他們之間的所有協議都將於週四簽署。

《國土報》報導稱，聯合政府計劃在周日宣誓就職後迅速通過一系列法律以支持其聯盟。

擬議的法律包括使利庫德集團 MKs 更容易脫離他們的政黨，並阻止新聯盟的任何成員在第 24 屆以色列議會有生之年組建的任何其他政府任職的法律。

根據該報告，由於各方之間存在分歧，暫時不會尋求對總理施加任期限制的提議。

Yisrael Beytenu head contradicts Lapid, Bennett, who insist door remains open to ultra-Orthodox parties; also demands immediate introduction of legislation likely to anger Haredim

By TOI STAFFToday, 6:02 am

Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman speaks during a Knesset faction meeting on May 31, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman reportedly told members of his right-wing, secular party Tuesday that the Knesset’s two ultra-Orthodox parties will not at any point be part of the incoming unity government, despite assertions by senior coalition leaders that the Haredi slates are still welcome to join.

“It is not possible for the ultra-Orthodox to join the government. Anyone who claims that the ultra-Orthodox can be added to this government is deluding himself and others,” Liberman said at a faction meeting, according to a Wednesday Channel 12 report.

The comments appeared to have been directed at Yamina chairman and prime minister-designate Naftali Bennett, as well as Yesh Atid chairman and foreign minister-designate Yair Lapid, who have both insisted that they have not shut the door to a coalition with the Haredi parties, even though the prospective government currently has a majority of secular factions and no hardline religious ones.

Bennett, in particular, is believed to be interested in folding Shas and United Torah Judaism into his coalition in order to expand the bloc of right-wing parties.

United Torah Judaism party chief Moshe Gafni holds a press conference (together with UTJ MK Yaakov Litzman and Shas head Aryeh Deri) at the Knesset in Jerusalem, June 8, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

However, Shas and UTJ leaders all but put to bed such a possibility at a Tuesday press conference where they launched a stunning assault on Bennett.

With the so-called change government set to be sworn in on Sunday and the ultra-Orthodox headed for the opposition for the first time since 2015, Haredi leaders branded Bennett “wicked” and claimed his new government’s policies would endanger the Jewish state.

Bennett, who is set to become Israel’s first Orthodox prime minister, dismissed the attack as embarrassing and unhinged, a “hysterical outburst,” and vowed he would safeguard religious life in the country.

According to Channel 12, Liberman went further during his Tuesday faction meeting, saying that he would demand a measures to establish a state commission of inquiry into the Meron disaster and another implementing a currently frozen deal to formalize the pluralistic prayer pavilion at the Western Wall, to be introduced at the first cabinet meeting of the nascent government.

Both efforts are likely to further anger the ultra-Orthodox parties, which pressured Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into walking back the government’s commitment to the so-called Kotel compromise in addition to vehemently opposing a high-level probe into the Meron disaster, which left 45 Haredi pilgrims dead in April. Critics have accused ultra-Orthodox lawmakers of blocking the inquiry due to fears that it might expose a corrupt decision-making process by the community’s leadership that allowed the tragedy to occur.

Israeli rescue forces and police at the scene of the fatal crush during Lag B’Omer celebrations on Mt. Meron, in northern Israel on April 30, 2021. (David Cohen/Flash90)

Separately on Wednesday, Channel 12 claimed to have exposed a hole in the coalition agreement between Lapid and Bennett, which would allow the Yamina chairman to break up the government before the Yesh Atid leader replaces him as prime minister in two years.

The current agreement — which won’t go into force until the government is sworn in — requires all 61 members of the Bennett-Lapid coalition to back legislation at the get-go that will enshrine into law the changing of the guard in two years. A similar law was passed in the first days of the previous government to ensure that Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz would replace Netanyahu after a year and a half. (Netanyahu found a different hole in their agreement that allowed the government to collapse if it failed to pass a budget and used it to topple the coalition before Gantz ever got a chance to become premier.)

But that law passed by the Blue and White-Likud government needed 70 MKs to be overturned as 70 MKs had been part of the coalition that voted to back the legislation. Bennett and Lapid’s coalition, on the other hand, only amounts to a 61-59 majority in the Knesset. Therefore only 61 MKs will be needed to cancel the legislation safeguarding the rotational agreement, Channel 12 said.

This could prove significant given that there are currently 65 right-wing MKs in the Knesset who might be willing to form a coalition together if Netanyahu steps aside as Likud leader, and they would be able to do just that by simply repealing the rotation-safeguarding law before Lapid is sworn in.

However, analysts note that the trust between Lapid and Bennett is far greater than that between Netanyahu and Gantz. Bennett has promised to abide by the agreement allowing Lapid to replace him in two years. Moreover, Yamina would likely perform poorly if elections are held again in the near future given that many of the party’s supporters have opposed Bennett’s decision to form a unity government.

(L-R) Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, Yamina chair Naftali Bennett and New Hope head Gideon Sa’ar at a meeting of the heads of the would-be-coalition in Tel Aviv, June 6, 2021. (Ra’anan Cohen)

Also on Wednesday, Channel 13 reported that no major differences remain between the coalition’s eight parties and that all agreements between them are set to be signed on Thursday.

Haaretz reported that the unity government is planning to quickly pass a series of laws to shore up its coalition after its planned swearing-in on Sunday.

Among the proposed laws are ones that would make it easier for Likud MKs to break off from their party and that would prevent any members of the new coalition from serving in any other government formed during the 24th Knesset’s lifetime.

According to the report, a proposal to impose term limits on the prime minister won’t be pursued for the time being, due to disagreements between the various parties.

利庫德集團官員考慮了領導人換任新職位的想法，希望這能讓國家擺脫政治僵局，但總理最終表示：“最好成為反對派領導人”

通過沙洛姆耶路莎米 今天下午 4:52

2021 年 6 月 2 日，赫爾佐格當選後，新當選的以色列總統艾薩克·赫爾佐格（左）與總理本傑明·內塔尼亞胡在議會中。（Yonatan Sindel/Flash90）

據以色列希伯來姊妹網站《泰晤士報》週四報導，隨著他繼續掌權的前景逐漸減弱，本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理在 5 月份探討了競選總統的可能性，然後最終決定放棄。

利庫德集團高級官員尋求達成協議，將內塔尼亞胡從他的職位上撤下，以結束持續的政治僵局，並在 5 月中旬向他建議了這一選擇，而 Yesh Atid 領導人亞伊爾·拉皮德 (Yair Lapid) 則負責組建下一屆政府。

內塔尼亞胡問他是否能召集必要的選票來贏得總統職位。“你確定這東西佔多數？” 他問道。官員們向內塔尼亞胡保證他做到了，並承諾探索這種可能性。

有了內塔尼亞胡，利庫德集團將很容易召集以色列議會的多數席位，在亞米納和新希望的支持下組建政府。後者的領導人吉迪恩·薩爾一再表示，只要利庫德集團不是由內塔尼亞胡領導，他就會加入利庫德集團領導的政府。

調查是由利庫德集團官員和總理辦公室代表秘密進行的，他們得出的結論是內塔尼亞胡能夠擊敗任何候選人，包括艾薩克·赫爾佐格。

在調查此事的同時，內塔尼亞胡的高級顧問與法律專家進行了磋商，他們得出的結論是，內塔尼亞胡的潛在總統選舉可能不會被高等法院否決。

魯文·里夫林總統（右）在 2019 年 9 月 25 日在耶路撒冷總統官邸舉行的新聞發布會上責成本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理組建新政府。（MENAHEM KAHANA/法新社）

利庫德集團官員回到內塔尼亞胡，向內塔尼亞胡承諾他在以色列議會中獲得多數支持。然而，當時首相已經決定不採取行動。“我沒興趣，”他說。“做反對派領袖比做總統好”。

參與調查的一名利庫德集團官員告訴 Zman Yisrael，這是“錯失的機會”。

這位官員說：“今天，首相和總統職位本可以掌握在利庫德集團手中。” “現在我們一無所有。甚至[政治]中心和離開的MKs都願意支持內塔尼亞胡[競選總統]，因為他們認為這會阻止第五次選舉。”

赫爾佐格最終以決定性的多數贏得了投票。

隨著所謂的“變革集團”設法將右、中和左的八個政黨聯合起來，新政府看起來將在周日下午宣誓就職。內塔尼亞胡連續 12 年擔任總理後，將成為反對黨領袖。

Likud officials eyed idea of leader moving to new post, hoping it would break country out of political logjam, but PM eventually said: ‘It’s better to be leader of the opposition’

By SHALOM YERUSHALMI Today, 4:52 pm

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Newly elected Israeli President Isaac Herzog (left) with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the Knesset after Herzog's election, June 2, 2021. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

With his prospects of remaining in power fading, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu explored the possibility in May of running for the presidency before eventually deciding against it, Zman Yisrael, The Times of Israel’s Hebrew sister site, reported Thursday.

Senior Likud officials, seeking to reach a deal to remove Netanyahu from his post as a way to end the ongoing political stalemate, suggested the option to him in mid-May while Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid held the mandate to form the next government.

Netanyahu asked whether he could muster the necessary votes to win the presidency. “Are you sure this thing has a majority?” he inquired. The officials assured Netanyahu that he did, and promised to explore the possibility.

With Netanyahu out of the way, Likud would have easily mustered a Knesset majority to form a government with the backing of Yamina and New Hope. The latter’s leader Gideon Sa’ar had repeatedly said he would join a Likud-led government so long as the party was not led by Netanyahu.

The inquiries were conducted in secret by the Likud officials along with representatives of the Prime Minister’s office, who came to the conclusion that Netanyahu would be able to beat any candidate, including Isaac Herzog.

While the matter was being looked into, Netanyahu’s top advisers held consultations with legal experts who came to the conclusion that Netanyahu’s potential election to the presidency would likely not be struck down by the High Court.

President Reuven Rivlin, right, tasks Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with forming a new government, during a press conference a the President’s Residence in Jerusalem on September 25, 2019. (MENAHEM KAHANA/AFP)

The Likud officials returned to Netanyahu, promising him that he had a majority of support in the Knesset. However, the prime minister had already decided against the move by then. “I am not interested,” he said. “It’s better to be the leader of the opposition” than to be president.

One of the Likud officials involved in the inquiry told Zman Yisrael that it had been “a missed opportunity.”

“The premiership and the presidency could have been in the hands of Likud today,” the official said. “Now we are left with nothing. There were even MKs in the [political] center and left who were willing to support Netanyahu [for president], because they believed that it would prevent a fifth election.”

Herzog eventually won the vote with a decisive majority.

With the so-called “change bloc” managing to cobble together a coalition of eight parties from the right, center and left, a new government looks set be sworn in on Sunday afternoon. Netanyahu, after 12 straight years as premier, will become leader of the opposition.

在 MKs 選出一位新議長後，Yamina 的 Bennett 和 Yesh Atid 的 Lapid 將介紹以色列第 36 屆政府的組成，然後立法者給予預期的 61-59 支持

通過TOI人員2021 年 6 月 9 日，晚上 8:02

新興聯盟中的政黨領袖：這張創建於 2021 年 6 月 2 日的圖片組合顯示（上（左到右）Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid、Yamina 領導人 Naftali Bennett、新希望領導人 Gideon Sa'ar、Yisrael Beytenu 領導人 Avigdor Lieberman， （從左到右）梅雷茨黨領袖尼贊·霍洛維茨、藍白黨領袖本尼·甘茨、拉姆黨領袖曼蘇爾·阿巴斯和工黨領袖梅拉夫·米凱利。（法新社照片）

週日，以色列議會將就建立以色列第 36 屆政府進行投票，這是一個由八黨組成的聯盟，由 Yamina 黨的候任總理 Naftali Bennett 與 Yesh Atid 領導人 Yair Lapid 輪流擔任總理。

如果得到證實，右翼、左翼、中間派和伊斯蘭黨派不太可能結成的聯盟將在 12 年後將本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理下台，由貝內特和兩年後的拉皮德取代。

議會安排委員會周三批准了議會會議以安裝聯盟，程序定於週日下午 4 點開始

首要任務將是投票選出內塔尼亞胡的利庫德集團議員、以色列議會議長亞里夫·萊文的替代者，後者將加入他的政黨反對黨。預計他將被 Yesh Atid MK Mickey Levy 取代。

貝內特隨後將走上講台，介紹聯盟指定的總理、候補總理、政府的指導原則、組成、部長、任何計劃改變角色的日期以及每位部長對貝內特的右翼集團或拉皮德在權力分享政府中的中左翼集團。

隸屬關係決定了誰可以解僱每個集團的成員部長。Bennett 的集團包括他自己的 Yamina 黨和由 MK Gideon Sa'ar 領導的 New Hope 黨。所有其他政黨都在拉皮德的陣營中。

雖然拉皮德也有權在全體會議上發言，但目前尚不清楚他是否願意。未來的政府領導人將在有限的時間內展示所有信息。

不屬於新政府的最大黨的領導人——內塔尼亞胡，其利庫德集團擁有 30 個席位——屆時也將擁有發言權。

週三第 12 頻道新聞報導稱，內塔尼亞胡將利用這一權利。

（它說內塔尼亞胡辦公室現階段無法回答仍在努力爭取脫北者以挫敗貝內特-拉皮德政府的內塔尼亞胡是否會出席隨後的將權力移交給即將上任的總理貝內特的傳統儀式。總理辦公室。第12頻道還表示，貝內特沒有要求與內塔尼亞胡會面，就權力移交進行一對一的通報，內塔尼亞胡也沒有提供這樣的通報，他們之間也沒有就交接事宜進行任何非正式協調。 .)

在周日的以色列議會會議上領導人發表講話後，議會所有其他黨派各有九分鐘的時間讓一名代表在全會上發言。由於內塔尼亞胡在執政超過 12 年之後將被驅逐，並在 1996 年至 1999 年期間擔任總理，因此演講可能會很激烈。利庫德集團及其盟友指責領導右翼政黨的貝內特和薩爾改變立場以支持新政府，他們一再詆毀新政府是“危險的”和“左翼的”。

議會隨後將就建立政府進行投票，預計該政府將獲得以色列議會 120 個 MK 中 61 個 MK 的微弱多數批准。

2021 年 6 月 6 日，本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理在耶路撒冷舉行的表彰醫務工作者和醫院抗擊 COVID-19 大流行的儀式上發表講話。（Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90）

總理、他的候補和他們的部長將宣布效忠於他們的角色，承諾“保持對以色列國及其法律的效忠，忠實地履行我作為總理/政府成員的職責，並支持以色列議會決議。”

會議結束後，新上任的政府成員將前往總統官邸，與即將卸任的總統魯文·里夫林 (Reuven Rivlin) 傳統的部長們合影，後者將於 7 月 9 日結束其七年的任期。

儘管在最後一刻的談判中，新興的聯盟協議尚未最終簽署，但預計成員方將很快簽署該協議。據說未來的聯盟黨領袖同意此事必須在周四晚上完成，因為聯盟協議必須在周五之前公佈。

新政府將包括 28 名部長和 6 名副部長，使其成為有史以來最大的內閣之一，儘管比前任政府小。這將是第一個由阿拉伯政黨 Ra'am 成為聯盟成員的以色列政府，這對政府的多數席位至關重要。

在最高部長職位方面，根據新出現的聯盟協議，拉皮德將在政府的頭兩年擔任外交部長，藍白黨領導人本尼·甘茨將繼續擔任國防部長，財政部將由以色列·貝特努（Yisrael Beytenu）領導人阿維格多（Avigdor）擔任利伯曼。新希望黨領袖薩爾將擔任司法部長，而亞米娜的阿耶萊特·沙克德將擔任內政部長。工黨的梅拉夫·米凱利（Merav Michaeli）獲得了交通部長職務，她的同黨成員奧馬爾·巴列夫（Omer Barlev）將擔任公共安全部長。梅雷茨領導人尼贊霍洛維茨將被任命為衛生部長，而同黨成員塔馬爾贊德伯格將被任命為環境保護部長。

After MKs elect a new speaker, Yamina’s Bennett and Yesh Atid’s Lapid will present composition of the 36th government of Israel, before lawmakers give an expected 61-59 endorsement

By TOI STAFF9 June 2021, 8:02 pm

Party leaders in the emerging coalition: This combination of pictures created on June 2, 2021 shows (Top (L to R) Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, Yamina leader Naftali Bennett, New Hope leader Gideon Sa'ar, Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Lieberman, (bottom L to R) Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz, Ra'am leader Mansour Abbas, and Labour leader Merav Michaeli. (Photos by AFP)

Sunday will see the Knesset vote on establishing the 36th government of Israel, an eight-party coalition that will see prime minister-designate Naftali Bennett of the Yamina party rotate the premiership with Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid.

If confirmed, the unlikely alliance of right-wing, left-wing, centrist and Islamist parties will remove Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from power after 12 years, to be replaced by Bennett, and, two years later, Lapid.

The Knesset Arrangements Committee on Wednesday approved the session of parliament to install the coalition with proceedings set to begin Sunday at 4 p.m.

The first order of business will be to vote on a replacement for Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin, a lawmaker from Netanyahu’s Likud, who will join his party in the opposition. He is expected to be replaced by Yesh Atid MK Mickey Levy.

Bennett will then take to the podium and present the coalition’s designated prime minister, alternate prime minister, the guiding principles of their government, its composition, its ministers, the dates of any planned changes in roles, and the affinity of each of the ministers to either Bennett’s right-wing bloc or Lapid’s center-left bloc in the power-sharing government.

The affiliations determine who can fire each bloc’s member ministers. Bennett’s bloc includes his own Yamina party and that of New Hope, lead by MK Gideon Sa’ar. All other parties are in Lapid’s bloc.

Though Lapid is also entitled to address the plenum, it is not yet clear if he will. The prospective government leaders will have a limited time to present all of the information.

The leader of the largest party that is not part of the incoming government — Netanyahu, whose Likud has 30 seats — will then have the right to speak as well.

Netanyahu will utilize that right, Channel 12 news reported Wednesday.

(It said Netanyahu’s office had no answer at this stage to the question of whether Netanyahu, who is still battling to woo defectors to thwart the Bennett-Lapid government, would attend the subsequent, traditional ceremony handing over authority to incoming prime minister Bennett at the Prime Minister’s Office. Channel 12 also said Bennett has not asked to meet with Netanyahu for a one-on-one briefing as power is transferred, nor had Netanyahu offered such a briefing, and nor has there been any informal coordination between them over the changeover.)

After the leaders’ speeches at Sunday’s Knesset session, all other parties in the Knesset will have nine minutes each for a representative to speak from the plenum. With Netanyahu set to be ousted after more than 12 years in power, as well as a stint as premier between 1996-1999, the speeches are likely to be heated. Likud and its allies accuse Bennett and Sa’ar, who both lead right-wing parties, of switching sides to enable the incoming government, which they have repeatedly denigrated as “dangerous” and “leftist.”

Parliament will then vote on establishing the government, which is expected to be approved with the wafer-thin majority of 61 MKs out of the Knesset’s total of 120.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu speaks at a ceremony honoring medical workers and hospitals for their fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, in Jerusalem on June 6, 2021. (Olivier Fitoussi/Flash90)

The prime minister, his alternate and their ministers will then declare their allegiance to their roles, committing to “maintain allegiance to the State of Israel and its laws, to faithfully fulfill my role as prime minister/a member of the government and to uphold Knesset resolutions.”

Following the session, members of the newly installed government will head to the President’s Residence for the traditional group photograph of ministers with outgoing President Reuven Rivlin, who will end his seven-year term on July 9.

Though the emerging coalition agreement has not yet been finally signed amid last-minute negotiations, the expectation is that the member parties will ink the deal shortly. The prospective coalition party heads were said to be in agreement that the matter must be finalized by Thursday night as the coalition agreements must be made public by Friday.

The new government will include 28 ministers and six deputy ministers, making it one of the largest-ever cabinets, though smaller than the previous government. It will be the first Israeli government in which an Arab party, Ra’am, has been a coalition member vital to the government’s majority.

In terms of top ministerial positions, under the emerging coalition agreements, Lapid will serve as foreign minister in the first two years of the government, Blue and White leader Benny Gantz will remain defense minister, and the Treasury will be held by Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman. New Hope leader Sa’ar will be justice minister, while Yamina’s Ayelet Shaked will be interior minister. Labor’s Merav Michaeli received the transportation portfolio and her fellow party member Omer Barlev will be public security minister. Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz will be appointed health minister, while fellow party member Tamar Zandberg will be environmental protection minister.

以色列歷史上從未有過右派、左派、中間派和阿拉伯人同意在政府中為更大的利益尋求共同點

由戴維·霍羅維茨 今天，上午 10:44

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(LR) Yisrael Beytenu 領袖 Avigdor Liberman、Yesh Atid 領袖 Yair Lapid、Yamina 主席 Naftali Bennett、新希望主席 Gideon Sa'ar、藍白黨主席 Benny Gantz、Ra'am 主席 Mansour Abbas、工黨領袖 Merav Michaeli 和 Meretz 領袖 Nitzan霍洛維茨於 2021 年 6 月 6 日在特拉維夫舉行的潛在聯盟首腦會議上。 (Ra'anan Cohen)

以色列兩個極端正統黨派的領導人周二舉行了一場令人震驚的新聞發布會，譴責“更迭政府”，尤其是其候任總理納夫塔利·貝內特（Naftali Bennett）。

令人震驚的是，他們對即將成為以色列第一位東正教總理的貝內特 (Bennett) 的尖酸刻薄，令人震驚的是，他們斷言他們的做法是唯一合法的方法來處理 halachic 猶太教和“猶太國家”處於危險之中的傲慢態度令人震驚由於他們即將被政府排除在外。

貝內特和他的同事們將“摧毀安息日、皈依、首席拉比、卡什魯特，並將以色列人民撕成碎片，”沙斯領導人阿里耶·德里怒吼道。

“他應該脫掉他的基帕，”聯合托拉猶太教的 Yaakov Litzman 怒吼道。

“惡人的名字將腐爛，”UTJ 領導人摩西加夫尼宣稱。

UTJ 領導人 Moshe Gafni（左）、Shas 領導人 Aryeh Deri 和（站立）UTJ MK Yaakov Litzman 於 2021 年 6 月 8 日在以色列議會舉行新聞發布會，譴責候任總理納夫塔利·貝內特和他的“變革政府”同事。（約納坦·辛德爾/Flash90）

作為回應，貝內特溫和而悲傷：“這些評論沒有得到他們的任何尊重，反映出他們失去了控制，”他說。“就在一年前，當現任聯合政府成立時，亞米娜被排除在外，哈雷迪姆人在。你沒有看到我呼籲加夫尼脫掉他的基帕。有一個政府，我們不是它的一部分，而太陽仍然在早晨升起。”

“極端正統的 MK 不會教我們什麼是猶太教，當然也不會教我們什麼是猶太復國主義，”貝內特責備道。

Bennett 準確地描述了 Haredi MKs 的“歇斯底里的爆發”，這突顯了他們的信念，即對於本傑明·內塔尼亞胡總理一直在努力爭取單個叛逃者，他需要阻止 61 人組成的聯盟，週日下午將看到內塔尼亞胡的終結前所未有的長達 12 年的掌權。內塔尼亞胡當然沒有放棄，但他的極端忠誠的極端正統派盟友顯然已經得出結論，一切都結束了。

如果是這樣，貝內特對他昔日的 Shas 和 UTJ 聯盟同事對他發動的惡毒攻擊的反應毫不動搖，這標誌著未來道路上的一個令人鼓舞的徵兆。“作為總理，我將照顧極端正統社會和托拉世界，”他承諾，並保持普遍和解的基調，這標誌著他和亞伊爾拉皮德的多元化八黨聯盟的集會。

雖然內塔尼亞胡不斷地錯誤地指責被盜選票，兜售“深層國家”陰謀論，並妖魔化這個“左翼”政府，但貝內特、耶什·阿蒂德的拉皮德和這個由右、中、左和阿拉伯政黨組成的非凡聯盟的其他成員已經傾向於專注於他們打算嘗試做的好事——他們旨在啟動的民族康復過程。

在周三早上的陸軍電台採訪中，亞米娜的馬坦卡哈納，一名東正教前戰鬥機飛行員，曾在以色列國防軍精銳的總參謀部偵察部隊（薩耶雷特馬特卡爾）服役，他對即將被任命為宗教服務部長感到高興——說這是唯一的他想要的位置。他承諾維持管理宗教和國家問題的廣泛“現狀”，但也要解決濫用問題並進行緊急改革。

他說，首先，根據過去六周里 Shas 和 UTJ 的常識，他將堅持成立一個州委員會調查 4 月 30 日的梅隆山災難，其中 45 名男子和男孩，絕大多數來自極端東正教社區，在可怕的暗戀中喪生。他問道，作為負責的部長，他還能如何確保它不會再次發生？

Yamina MK Matan Kahana 於 2021 年 3 月 17 日在斯德羅特的競選活動中發表講話。（Yossi Zeliger/Flash90）

Kahana 被提醒他將接管一個由 Shas 管理的部門，該部門的工作人員可以依靠它來抵制變化，他熱情地說，他知道他可以從該部門的公務員身上學到很多東西。他強調，宗教和國家領域的問題“73年沒有解決，下一屆政府可能也解決不了”。

總的來說，卡哈納說，呼應貝內特在過去幾天中不止一次發表的評論，即將上任的聯盟的每個成員“都知道他們可能無法實現他們的全部議程，他們知道如果他們開始互相攻擊，政府就會獲勝。活不下來。” 合作夥伴“帶著很多善意而來”。

在這個國家的歷史上，右翼、左翼、中間派和阿拉伯人從未同意在政府中為以色列的更大利益達成共識。雖然極端正統派政治官員已向其宣戰，但“變革政府”的許多關鍵成員卻以一種近乎救世主的願景來建立它，即以色列內部右左、東正教與世俗、猶太與阿拉伯的和諧。（Yisrael Beytenu 的 Avigdor Liberman 是一個特別明顯的例外。）不管這將被證明很難維持，這個目標標誌著與內塔尼亞胡保持權力的分裂方法的值得稱讚的背離。

不過，首先，“更迭政府”需要在周日下午的投票中贏得以色列議會的批准。值得一提的是，在 1990 年的投票過程中，西蒙·佩雷斯 (Shimon Peres) 粗魯地發現，他並沒有讓所有的聯盟鴨子都排好隊。

新聯盟承諾在以色列政治中進入一個新的、更和諧的時代，但除非或直到這 61 名 MK 的選票被投票、計算和確認，否則其所有善意都將無關緊要。

Never before in Israel’s history have rightists, leftists, centrists and Arabs agreed to stake out common ground, together in government, in the cause of the greater good

By DAVID HOROVITZ Today, 10:44 am

(L-R) Yisrael Beytenu leader Avigdor Liberman, Yesh Atid leader Yair Lapid, Yamina chair Naftali Bennett, New Hope chair Gideon Sa'ar, Blue and White head Benny Gantz, Ra’am chair Mansour Abbas, Labor head Merav Michaeli and Meretz leader Nitzan Horowitz at a meeting of the heads of the would-be-coalition in Tel Aviv, June 6, 2021. (Ra'anan Cohen)

The leaders of Israel’s two ultra-Orthodox parties held a quite staggering press conference on Tuesday, at which they denounced the “change government” and especially its Prime Minister-designate Naftali Bennett.

It was staggering in the vitriol they heaped upon Bennett, who is set to become Israel’s first Orthodox prime minister, and staggering in the arrogance with which they asserted that theirs is the only legitimate approach to halachic Judaism and that the “Jewish state” is imperiled by their imminent exclusion from government.

Bennett and his colleagues will “destroy Shabbat, conversion, the Chief Rabbinate, kashrut and will tear the people of Israel asunder,” thundered Shas leader Aryeh Deri.

“He should take off his kippa,” raged United Torah Judaism’s Yaakov Litzman.

“The names of the wicked shall rot,” proclaimed UTJ leader Moshe Gafni.

UTJ leader Moshe Gafni (left), Shas leader Aryeh Deri and (standing) UTJ MK Yaakov Litzman hold a press conference at the Knesset, June 8, 2021, denouncing Prime Minister-designate Naftali Bennett and his ‘change government’ colleagues. (Yonatan Sindel/Flash90)

Bennett, in response, was mild and rather sorrowful: “These are comments that do not gain them any respect, and reflect a loss of control,” he said. “Only a year ago, when the current unity government was formed, Yamina was left out and the Haredim were in. You did not see me calling on Gafni to take off his kippa. There was a government, we were not part of it, and the sun still rose in the morning.”

“The ultra-Orthodox MKs will not teach us what Judaism is, and certainly not what Zionism is,” Bennett chided.

What Bennett accurately described as the Haredi MKs’ “hysterical outburst” underlined their conviction that for all Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s ongoing efforts to win over the single defector he would need to block the 61-strong coalition, Sunday afternoon will see the end of Netanyahu’s unprecedented 12-year hold on power. Netanyahu certainly hasn’t given up, but his ultra-loyal ultra-Orthodox allies have evidently concluded that it’s over.

If so, Bennett’s unfazed response to the vicious assault mounted against him by his erstwhile Shas and UTJ coalition colleagues marks an encouraging portent on the road ahead. “As prime minister, I will take care of ultra-Orthodox society and the world of Torah,” he promised, maintaining the generally conciliatory tone that has marked the assembly of his and Yair Lapid’s wildly diverse eight-party coalition.

While Netanyahu rails incessantly and falsely about stolen votes, peddles “deep state” conspiracy theories, and demonizes this “left-wing” government, Bennett, Yesh Atid’s Lapid and other members of this extraordinary alliance of right, center, left and Arab parties have tended to focus on the good that they intend to try to do — the process of national healing they aim to initiate.

In an Army Radio interview Wednesday morning, Yamina’s Matan Kahana, an Orthodox ex-fighter pilot who also served in the IDF’s elite General Staff Reconnaissance Unit (Sayeret Matkal), rejoiced in his imminent appointment as Minister for Religious Services — saying it was the only position he wanted. He pledged to maintain the broad “status quo” that governs issues of religion and state, but also to fix abuses and introduce urgent reforms.

For a start, he said, with the common sense that has eluded Shas and UTJ these past six weeks, he will insist on a state commission of inquiry into the April 30 Mount Meron disaster in which 45 men and boys, overwhelmingly from the ultra-Orthodox community, were killed in a horrific crush. How else, he asked, would he be able, as the minister responsible, to ensure it didn’t recur?

Yamina MK Matan Kahana speaks during an election campaign event in Sderot on March 17, 2021. (Yossi Zeliger/Flash90)

Reminded that he would be taking over a Shas-run ministry whose staff could be relied upon to resist changes, Kahana said warmly that he knew he would have a lot to learn from the ministry’s civil servants. And he stressed that matters in the field of religion and state “that haven’t been solved for 73 years probably won’t be solved in the next government.”

Generally, said Kahana, echoing comments Bennett has made more than once in the past few days, every member of the incoming coalition “knows that they probably cannot realize their full agendas, and they know that if they start attacking each other, the government won’t survive.” The partners “are coming with a lot of goodwill.”

Never in the history of this country have rightists, leftists, centrists and Arabs agreed to stake out common ground, together in government, in the cause of the greater Israeli good. While the ultra-Orthodox political apparatchiks have declared religious war on it, many key members of the “change government” have set it up with an almost messianic vision of internal Israeli right-left, Orthodox-secular, Jewish-Arab harmony. (Yisrael Beytenu’s Avigdor Liberman is a particularly stark exception.) However hard this will prove to maintain, the very goal marks a laudable departure from Netanyahu’s divisive approach to retaining power.

First, though, the “change government” needs to win Knesset approval, in a vote set for Sunday afternoon. It is worth recalling Shimon Peres’s rude discovery, in the course of just such a vote in 1990, that he didn’t have all his coalition ducks lined up after all.

The new coalition promises a new, more harmonious era in Israeli politics, but all its good intentions won’t matter a whit unless or until those 61 MKs’ votes are cast, counted and confirmed.

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