伊朗外長稱與美國的核談判將“很快”恢復

美國於 2018 年退出 JCPOA，理由是伊朗在該地區的持續惡意行為，並實施“最大壓力”制裁制度，但拜登尋求回歸該政策。

通過LAHAV哈爾科夫

2021 年 10 月 6 日 20:37

伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西（Ebrahim Raisi）會引領軍用級鈾的突破嗎？

（圖片來源：路透社）

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伊朗外交部長侯賽因·阿米拉卜杜拉希安週三表示，伊朗將“很快”恢復談判以達成核協議，但沒有承諾恢復陷入僵局的談判以恢復與世界主要大國的 2015 年聯合綜合行動計劃的具體日期。

阿米拉布多拉希安在莫斯科與俄羅斯外長拉夫羅夫會晤後表示，“審查維也納會談的進程已接近尾聲，會談將很快恢復。

他補充說：“在伊朗重返談判桌之前，其他各方也必須做出新的決定，並表明他們對談判取得成功和履行承諾的意願和意圖。”

據伊朗梅爾通訊社報導，早些時候，阿米拉布多拉希安告訴莫斯科的伊朗基金會負責人，“如果我們在確保伊朗人民的權利方面取得切實成就，”重返核協議可能會提振伊朗的經濟。

“如果談判進程像過去八年一樣，繼續朝著同一個方向前進，即談判談判，伊朗伊斯蘭共和國將做出適當的決定，”他說。

根據俄羅斯對電話的宣讀，拉夫羅夫在布林肯的倡議下，在與阿米拉布多拉希安會面前不久與美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯進行了交談。

伊朗原子能組織負責人穆罕默德·埃斯拉米和國際原子能機構（IAEA）總幹事拉斐爾·格羅西於 2021 年 9 月 12 日在伊朗德黑蘭出席新聞發布會。（圖片來源：WANA（西亞新聞社）VIA REUTERS）

俄羅斯外交部表示：“雙方就恢復全面執行全面協議以解決伊朗核計劃的前景交換了意見，並討論了雙邊議程上的一些相關問題。”

拉夫羅夫稱與阿米拉布多拉希安的會晤“非常及時”，並補充說“今天談判的重點將是全面續簽伊朗核計劃協議的必要性，沒有任何豁免或補充。我們想討論如何加快這一進程。”

Lavrov-Amirabdollahian 會議是在伊朗退出與美國在維也納舉行的旨在返回 JCPOA 的間接談判四個月後在莫斯科舉行的，該協議將伊朗的鈾濃縮活動限製到 2030 年，以換取解除制裁。伊朗表示，它必須等到 6 月舉行的選舉和新政府組建後才能繼續談判。

美國於 2018 年退出 JCPOA，理由是伊朗在該地區的持續惡意行為，並實施“最大壓力”制裁制度。拜登政府尋求撤銷其前任的政策並重返 JCPOA，然後再開始進一步談判以使伊朗協議“更長更久”。

然而，伊朗今年遠遠超過了 JCPOA 的限制，濃縮鈾高達 60%，距離製造炸彈所需的 90% 僅一步之遙。它還開始開發鈾金屬，核協議的歐洲各方——英國、法國和德國——指出這些金屬沒有可靠的民用用途。

伊朗總統易卜拉欣·賴西（Ebrahim Raisi）政府的官員就重返維也納會談發表了類似於阿米拉布多拉希安（Amirabdollahian）的含糊聲明，但沒有設定時間框架。

“伊朗最終將重返維也納會談。但我們並不急於這樣做，因為時間在我們這邊。我們的核[發展]每天都在進步，”一位不願透露姓名的伊朗高級官員告訴路透社。

西方國家對延誤表示失望。

布林肯上週談到談判時說：“球還在他們的球場上，但不會持續太久。”

國務卿解釋說，伊朗正接近其核計劃的進展點，屆時 JCPOA 的好處將不再具有相關性。

一位法國總統府官員上週告訴記者：“為避免事態升級，伊朗必須回到談判桌……時間越久，回到談判桌就越難。”

國家安全顧問傑克沙利文週二在與以色列同行埃亞爾胡拉塔的會晤中強調，美國總統喬拜登致力於確保伊朗永遠不會擁有核武器。

“本屆政府認為外交是實現這一目標的最佳途徑，同時也指出總統已經明確表示，如果外交失敗，美國準備轉向其他選擇，”沙利文的發言人說。

Nuclear talks with US to resume ‘soon,’ Iranian foreign minister says

The US left the JCPOA in 2018, citing continued malign behavior by Iran in the region, and implementing a “maximum pressure” sanctions regime, but Biden seeks a return to the policy.

By LAHAV HARKOV

OCTOBER 6, 2021 20:37

Will Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi lead the breakout to military-grade uranium?

(photo credit: REUTERS)

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Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian on Wednesday said Iran would return to talks to reach a nuclear agreement “soon,” but made no commitment to a specific date for resuming the stalled negotiations to revive the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with the world’s leading powers.

Following a meeting with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Moscow, Amirabdollahian said that “the process of reviewing Vienna talks is nearing completion and the talks will resume soon.

“Until Iran returns to the negotiating table, the other parties must also make new decisions and show their will and intention for the success of the talks and fulfilling their commitments,” he added.

Earlier, Amirabdollahian told the head of Iranian foundations in Moscow that a return to the nuclear deal could bolster Iran’s economy, “if we achieve tangible achievements in securing the rights of the Iranian people,” Iranian Mehr News Agency reported.

“If the negotiation process, like the previous eight years, is going to continue in the same direction, that is, negotiations for negotiations, the Islamic Republic of Iran will take the appropriate decision,” he stated.

Lavrov spoke with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken shortly before his meeting with Amirabdollahian, at Blinken’s initiative, according to the Russian readout of the call.

Head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization Mohammad Eslami and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi attend a news conference, in Tehran, Iran, September 12, 2021. (credit: WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

“The sides exchanged views on the prospects for restoring the full implementation of the JCPOA for the Iranian nuclear program’s settlement, and also addressed a number of relevant issues on the bilateral agenda,” the Russian Foreign Ministry stated.

Lavrov called the meeting with Amirabdollahian “very timely,” adding that “the focus of today’s negotiations will be the need for a full renewal of the Iranian nuclear program agreement, without any exemptions or additions. We would like to discuss how this process can be expedited.”

The Lavrov-Amirabdollahian meeting in Moscow took place four months after Iran walked away from indirect negotiations with the US in Vienna designed to return to the JCPOA, which restricted the Islamic Republic’s enrichment of uranium enrichment until 2030, in exchange for lifting sanctions. Iran said it would have to wait until after its election, which took place in June, and the formation of a new government to continue talks.

The US left the JCPOA in 2018, citing continued malign behavior by Iran in the region, and implementing a “maximum pressure” sanctions regime. The Biden administration seeks to roll back its predecessor’s policy and return to the JCPOA, before opening further negotiations to make the Iran deal “longer and stronger.”

Iran, however, has far surpassed the JCPOA’s limitations this year, enriching uranium up to 60%, a step away from the 90% needed for a bomb. It also began developing uranium metal, which the European parties to the nuclear deal – UK, France and Germany – have pointed out has no credible civilian use.

Officials in Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s government have made vague statements, similar to Amirabdollahian’s, about returning to the Vienna talks, but have not set a time frame.

“Iran will eventually return to the talks in Vienna. But we are in no rush to do so, because time is on our side. Our nuclear [development] advances further every day,” a senior Iranian official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

Western states have expressed frustration at the delays.

Blinken said last week of the negotiations: “The ball remains in their court, but not for long.”

The secretary of state explained that Iran is nearing the point of advancement in its nuclear program at which the benefits of the JCPOA will no longer be relevant.

A French presidency official told reporters last week: “To avoid an escalation, Iran must return to the negotiating table…. The more time passes, the harder it becomes to return to the negotiating table.”

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan emphasized in a meeting with Israeli counterpart Eyal Hulata on Tuesday that US President Joe Biden is committed to ensuring Iran never gets a nuclear weapon.

“This administration believes diplomacy is the best path to achieve that goal, while also noting that the president has made clear that if diplomacy fails, the United States is prepared to turn to other options,” Sullivan’s spokesperson said.

俄羅斯媒體、歐洲天然氣危機和地中海——分析

俄羅斯被指責將能源需求用作對抗國家的武器。像白俄羅斯這樣的友好國家可能會從莫斯科得到他們需要的東西，但像烏克蘭這樣的其他國家可能會成為受害者。

作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN

2021 年 10 月 6 日 13:28

2021 年 9 月 8 日，專家在波羅的海的鋪設駁船 Fortuna 上完成 Nord Stream 2 天然氣海底管道的建設時進行水上搭接。

（圖片來源：NORD STREAM 2/Handout via REUTERS）

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隨著價格飆升，歐洲正處於天然氣危機之中。據路透社報導，歐盟委員會（EC）正在審查一些歐盟國家關於俄羅斯“利用其作為主要供應國的地位來推動歐洲天然氣價格飆升”的說法。與此同時，在莫斯科，國家新聞媒體塔斯社發表了大量文章，輕描淡寫，暗示俄羅斯對這場危機感到高興和捲入危機。

這很重要，因為在過去的幾十年裡，俄羅斯一直被指責利用能源需求作為對付歐洲和前蘇聯國家的武器。例如，像白俄羅斯這樣的友好國家可能會從莫斯科得到他們需要的東西，但像烏克蘭這樣的其他國家可能會成為受害者。

整個歐洲對俄羅斯來說是一個巨大的市場，雖然一些歐洲國家傾向於與莫斯科合作或安撫莫斯科，尤其是德國，但其他國家則希望對俄羅斯採取更強硬的立場。英國脫歐後，歐盟更加混亂。

整體環境不僅僅是關於天然氣和能源。它是關於崛起的威權政權及其經濟影響力。俄羅斯、中國、土耳其、伊朗和其他國家希望共同努力。他們可以通過“一帶一路”倡議或上海合作組織來實現。他們都將經濟政策和能源視為國防和外交政策的一部分。

這與西方國家形成鮮明對比，西方國家通常採取更加分散的方式行事，外交官做一件事，將軍做另一件事，經濟領導人做另一件事。簡而言之，西方在處理能源等重要問題時是軟弱的。

歐洲人怎麼說？路透社指出，“俄羅斯供應商俄羅斯天然氣工業股份公司一直在履行長期合同下的銷售義務，但沒有增加更多。這引起了歐盟立法者的指責，稱它正在推高歐洲的天然氣價格，由於供應緊張和其他因素，該價格已飆升至歷史新高。” 歐洲能源專員 Kadri Simson 表示，這是一個非常嚴重的問題，他正在與

EC 執行副總裁 Margrethe Vestager。一些歐盟國家希望做出協調一致的反應。

據 CNBC 報導，“歐盟的大部分天然氣供應來自俄羅斯。2020 年，莫斯科佔歐盟天然氣庫存的 43.4%，其次是挪威，佔 20%。”

與此同時，法國領導層對最近美國、英國和澳大利亞之間的國防交易感到憤怒，但有人談論減少對外國的能源依賴。法國知道，許多地中海國家，如西班牙、意大利和希臘，都面臨著與高能源成本相關的鬥爭。法國最近與希臘簽署了一項新的防務協議。

CNBC 指出，“自今年年初以來，歐洲基準荷蘭 TTF 中心的近月天然氣價格上漲了近 400%。能源專家預計，隨著冬季的臨近，天然氣價格將進一步上漲。”

與此同時，彷彿巧合的是，來自俄羅斯的名為 Nord Stream 2 的新管道本周正在充滿用於測試的天然氣。美國反對這條管道，並擔心它會使歐洲在能源需求上過於依賴俄羅斯。管道本身繞過烏克蘭，從俄羅斯到達歐洲。請記住這裡的背景：美國在 2019 年特朗普政府掌權時對 Nord Stream 項目實施了製裁。據路透社報導，Nord Stream 2 仍在等待德國能源監管機構的批准。

在巴黎，美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯本週在城裡試圖平息對美英澳協議的憤怒，該協議導致法國失去了數十億美元的潛艇合同。布林肯顯然遭到了法國的強硬回應。記者安妮-索菲拉皮克斯告訴國務卿：“我們期待更好，尤其是隨著政府的更迭，尤其是你。” “你說法語。你是一個法國人。我們期待更好的對話，”美國有線電視新聞網報導。

顯然，美法裂痕影響了歐洲與俄羅斯的關係。這與盎格魯撒克遜國家經常合作的歷史是一致的，而法國自 1890 年代成為盟友以來，一直與俄羅斯保持密切關係長達 100 多年。

2020 年 9 月 10 日，路標將交通引向德國盧布明的 Nord Stream 2 天然氣管線登陸設施入口。（圖片來源：REUTERS/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/文件照片）

莫斯科似乎對歐洲的危機以及傳統西方集團和聯盟未能就該做什麼達成協議而幸災樂禍。俄羅斯塔斯社有許多文章強調歐洲能源危機。有人指出，“歐洲的能源危機是由於各國未能及時與俄羅斯簽署長期天然氣合同而引發的，塞爾維亞總統亞歷山大·武契奇週二在訪問斯洛文尼亞期間表示。”

武契奇曾表示，由於今年的碳氫化合物稅和誤判，歐洲正處於危機之中。Tanjug 通訊社援引塞爾維亞總統的話說：“他們想用儲存設施中已有的廉價天然氣來推動他們的工業發展。他們（歐洲國家）的供應已經用完，而且沒有與俄羅斯人簽署長期購買協議，現在……[俄羅斯總統弗拉基米爾]普京是絕對的‘造王者’，有可能決定誰[將以什麼價格購買]，以及應該如何提高價格，”塞爾維亞領導人說。

塞爾維亞是俄羅斯的盟友，這個聯盟也可以追溯到 100 多年前。貝爾格萊德認為自己是 1990 年代巴爾幹衝突期間以及美國干預科索沃和波斯尼亞期間西方侵略的受害者。它離莫斯科和土耳其越來越近，它希望從這些國家獲得更多的防空系統和無人機。雖然歐盟逐漸將塞爾維亞周邊國家包括在內，但西方國家過去常常嘲笑它似乎與俄羅斯等較弱的國家結盟。但現在，貝爾格萊德顯得堅強而有先見之明。

俄羅斯媒體對歐洲創紀錄的天然氣價格輕描淡寫。塔斯社還指出，五個歐洲國家已呼籲對高價進行調查。莫斯科也可能希望通過 TurkStream 在能源政策上取得成功，這是一條通往土耳其的管道，併計劃將管道延伸到東歐。一篇文章聲稱俄羅斯正在用所有這些管道“包圍”歐洲。

目前尚不清楚以色列及其在地中海東部的能源項目是否對歐洲正在發生的事情有長期利益。以色列表面上希望成為東地中海管道概念的一部分，該管道可以將以色列與塞浦路斯、希臘和歐洲連接起來。

美國駐希臘大使杰弗裡·普里亞特 (Geoffrey Pryatt) 在 4 月表示，“我們在能源多樣化領域看到了特殊的前景，希臘繼續建設基礎設施，但正在幫助西巴爾幹國家擺脫對俄羅斯單一來源的歷史依賴。天然氣——無論是 TAP 管道、亞歷山德魯波利斯浮動再氣化裝置、IGB 管道還是希臘和北馬其頓之間的新天然氣互連器。這些項目都吸引了美國和歐盟以及保加利亞、塞爾維亞、科索沃和北馬其頓的興趣和支持。”

Pryatt 還討論了 East Med 管道，他說：“如果要建造它，這將是世界歷史上最深、最昂貴的管道項目。

“我認為我們所有人都在關注全球能源轉型和向可再生能源的快速轉變所發生的事情，我們明白，雖然 LNG [液態天然氣] 將在短期內發揮不可或缺的作用——但在短期內，我意味著未來幾十年——作為能源轉型的工具，它不是我們能源需求的長期答案，”他說。“事實上，我們的氣候無法支持這一點。”

這位大使辯稱，“至少就目前而言，市場似乎在暗示不太可能繼續這條管道。” 不過，他也表示，美國支持希臘關於開放能源市場的觀點。

“我們很高興美國現在在 East Med Gas Forum 中擁有觀察員地位，”Pryatt 說。“我們還從總理、外交部長丹迪亞斯和能源部長斯克雷卡斯那裡聽到了明確的信息，即土耳其也被邀請參加東地中海天然氣論壇，但它必須在睦鄰友好的基礎上這樣做。關係和國際法。”

這意味著當前天然氣價格危機和俄羅斯-歐盟關係的另一個方面對地中海產生了影響。這些都很重要，因為近年來俄羅斯與土耳其的關係越來越近。法國與希臘達成的防務協議說明了地中海地區的合作日益增長——美國與希臘的關係也日益增長。

所有這些都很重要，因為能源政策是國家安全政策的一部分。俄羅斯當然是這麼看的。

Russia’s media, Europe’s gas crisis and the Mediterranean - analysis

Russia has been accused of using energy needs as a weapon against countries. Friendly countries like Belarus may get what they need from Moscow, but other states like Ukraine can become victims.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

OCTOBER 6, 2021 13:28

Specialists perform an above-water tie-in while finishing the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas subsea pipeline onboard the laybarge Fortuna in the Baltic Sea, September 8, 2021.

(photo credit: NORD STREAM 2/HANDOUT VIA REUTERS)

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Europe is in the midst of a natural gas crisis as prices spike. The European Commission (EC) is examining claims by some EU countries that Russia is using its “position as a major supplier to propel the soaring price of gas in Europe, the bloc's energy policy chief said on Tuesday,” according to Reuters. Meanwhile in Moscow, the state news outlet TASS has run numerous articles making light of the situation, hinting at Russia’s glee and involvement in the crisis.

This matters because, over the last decades, Russia has been accused of using energy needs as a weapon against countries in Europe and in the former Soviet Union. For instance, friendly countries like Belarus may get what they need from Moscow, but other states like Ukraine can become victims.

Europe as a whole is a huge market for Russia, and while some European countries have tended to want to work with or appease Moscow, especially Germany, others want a stronger stance against Russia. After the UK left the European Union, the bloc has been in more disarray.

The overall context is not just about gas and energy. It is about rising authoritarian regimes and their economic clout. Russia, China, Turkey, Iran and other states want to work together. They can do so via the Belt and Road Initiative or the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. They all see economic policy and energy as part of national defense and diplomatic policy.

This is in contrast to Western countries that often act in a more compartmentalized way, with diplomats doing one thing, generals another and economic leaders doing something else. In short, the West is weak when it comes to dealing with important issues like energy.

What are the Europeans saying? Reuters notes that “Russian supplier Gazprom has been fulfilling its sales obligations under long-term contracts but not adding more. That has drawn accusations by European Union lawmakers that it is pushing up gas prices in Europe, which have surged to record highs amid tight supply and other factors.” European Energy Commissioner Kadri Simson says this is a very serious matter and he is working closely with

EC executive vice president Margrethe Vestager. Some EU countries want a coordinated response.

According to CNBC, “the EU receives most of its natural gas supplies from Russia. In 2020, Moscow accounted for 43.4% of the EU’s natural gas stock, followed by Norway at 20%.”

MEANWHILE IN France, where the leadership has been angry over recent defense deals between the US, UK and Australia, there is talk of reducing energy dependency on foreign countries. France knows that numerous Mediterranean countries, such as Spain, Italy and Greece, have faced struggles relating to the high energy costs. France recently signed a new defense deal with Greece.

CNBC notes that “the front-month gas price at the Dutch TTF hub, a European benchmark, has risen almost 400% since the start of the year. Energy experts foresee further gas price spikes as the winter season approaches.”

At the same time, as if by coincidence, the new pipeline from Russia which is called Nord Stream 2 was being filled with gas for tests this week. The US has opposed that pipeline and is concerned that it makes Europe too reliant on Russia for energy needs. The pipeline itself bypasses Ukraine to get to Europe from Russia. Remember the context here: The US slapped sanctions on the Nord Stream project in 2019 when the Trump administration was in charge. Nord Stream 2 is still awaiting approval from Germany’s energy regulator, Reuters reports.

In Paris, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken was in town this week to try to heal anger over a US-UK-Australia deal that led to France losing out on billions of dollars in submarine contracts. Blinken apparently encountered a tough response from France. "We expected better, especially with the change of administration, and especially with you," journalist Anne-Sophie Lapix told the secretary of state. "You speak French. You are a Francophile. We expected a better dialogue,” CNN reported.

Clearly, the US-France rift affects European relations with Russia. This is in line with history where Anglo-Saxon countries have often worked together while France has pursued close relations with Russia for more than 100 years since they became allies in the 1890s.

A road sign directs traffic towards the Nord Stream 2 gas line landfall facility entrance in Lubmin, Germany, September 10, 2020. (credit: REUTERS/HANNIBAL HANSCHKE/FILE PHOTO)

MOSCOW APPEARS to be gloating over the crisis in Europe and the failure of traditional Western blocs and alliances to come to an agreement on what to do. Russia’s TASS has numerous articles highlighting the European energy crisis. One notes that “the energy crisis in Europe was triggered by countries’ failure to sign long-term gas contracts with Russia in time, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic said on Tuesday during his visit to Slovenia.”

Vucic has said that Europe is in crisis because of its hydrocarbon taxes and its miscalculations this year. “They wanted to give a boost to their industries with the cheap gas they already had in their storage facilities," the Tanjug news agency quoted the Serbian president as saying. “They [European countries] have run out of their supplies, and did not sign long-term purchase deals with the Russians, and now… [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is the absolute ‘kingmaker,’ with the possibility to decide who [will buy] at what price, and how a price should be raised," the Serbian leader said.

Serbia is an ally of Russia, an alliance that also dates back more than 100 years. Belgrade views itself as a victim of Western aggression in the 1990s during the Balkan conflicts and over US intervention in Kosovo and Bosnia. It has grown closer to Moscow and Turkey and it wants more air defense systems and drones from these countries. While the EU grew to include countries around Serbia, Western countries used to mock it for appearing to ally itself with weaker countries like Russia. But now, Belgrade appears strong and prescient.

Russian media makes light of the record-high gas prices in Europe. Tass also notes that five European countries have called for an investigation into the high prices. Moscow may also be looking to succeed at energy policy with TurkStream, a pipeline to Turkey and plans to extend pipelines into Eastern Europe. One article claims Russia is “encircling” Europe with all these pipelines.

IT’S NOT clear if Israel and its energy projects in the eastern Mediterranean have a long-term interest in what is going on in Europe. Israel ostensibly wants to be part of the East Med pipeline concept, which could link Israel to Cyprus, Greece and Europe.

US Ambassador to Greece Geoffrey Pryatt said in April that “we see special prospects in the area of energy diversification, where Greece continues to build out the infrastructure but is helping the countries of the Western Balkans to escape their historical dependence on a single source of Russian gas – whether it’s the TAP pipeline, the Alexandroupolis Floating Regasification unit, the IGB pipeline or the new gas interconnector between Greece and North Macedonia. These are all projects that have attracted interest and support from the United States and from the European Union, but also from Bulgaria, from Serbia, from Kosovo, from North Macedonia.”

Pryatt also discussed the East Med pipeline, saying that, “if it were to be constructed, it would be the deepest and most expensive pipeline project ever in the history of the world.

“I think all of us watch what’s happening with the global energy transition and the rapid shift to renewable sources, and we understand that while LNG [liquid natural gas] is going to play an indispensable role over the short term – and by short term I mean the next few decades – as a vehicle to the energy transition, it’s not the long-term answer to our energy requirements,” he said. “In fact, our climate can’t support that.”

The ambassador argued that “at least for now, the markets seem to be signaling that that pipeline is unlikely to be pursued.” However, he also said that the US supports Greece’s views on open energy markets.

“We’re delighted that the United States now has observer status in the East Med Gas Forum,” Pryatt said. “We also have heard clear messages from the prime minister, from Foreign Minister Dendias and from Energy Minister Skrekas that Turkey, too, is also invited to be part of the East Med Gas Forum, but it has to do so on the basis of neighborly relations and international law.”

This means that an added aspect of the current crisis in gas prices and Russian-EU relations have ramifications for the Mediterranean. These are important because Russia has grown closer to Turkey in recent years. A French defense deal with Greece illustrates growing cooperation across the Mediterranean – and US-Greek relations have grown increasingly as well.

All of this matters because energy policy is part of national security policy. Russia certainly sees it that way.

解讀以色列關於伊朗核威脅的混合信息——分析

來自高級官員的相互矛盾的信息表明，以色列尚未制定切實可行的計劃來阻止伊朗獲得核武器。

作者：HERB KEINON

2021 年 10 月 5 日 20:46

導彈於 2019 年 9 月在德黑蘭舉行的伊朗國慶閱兵期間展示。

（圖片來源：WANA 新聞社/路透社）

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上週以色列對伊朗核發展的公開姿態是兩個信息的故事。

首先是總理納夫塔利·貝內特 (Naftali Bennett)，他在聯合國演講中讓國際社會注意到以色列的耐心並非無止境。

“在過去幾年中，伊朗在核研發、生產能力和濃縮方面取得了重大飛躍，”貝內特說。

“伊朗的核計劃已經到了一個分水嶺——我們的容忍度也是如此。言語並不能阻止離心機旋轉。''

他的信息很明確，即使不一定是新的。以色列將在必要時採取行動，以防止它認為來自伊朗的生存威脅。

伊朗人在 2021 年 5 月 7 日在伊朗德黑蘭舉行的一年一度的聖城日或耶路撒冷日的集會上焚燒以色列國旗。（圖片來源：MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA（西亞新聞社）VIA REUTERS）

那是一條消息。

但隨後在以色列媒體的幾篇分析文章中出現了另一條截然不同的信息，這些文章在幾天后的周五（包括在《耶路撒冷郵報》上）都發表了基本相同的內容：以色列沒有最新的-擊伊朗核設施的日期和有效的軍事計劃。

這些文章都在同一天出現並具有相同的基本信息，這表明高級記者聽取了高級官員的簡報。出現的信息是，雖然十年前以色列制定瞭如何打擊伊朗核計劃的計劃，但一旦聯合全面行動計劃於 2015 年完成，很明顯以色列現在不能違背世界的意願並在軍事上打擊伊朗以防止其向核武器發起衝擊，這些計劃——包括撥出大量資金用於訓練和獲取軍事硬件以進行此類攻擊的預算——都被擱置了。

換句話說，雖然十年前以色列有其認為可信且有效的計劃來挫敗其生存威脅，但今天這些計劃根本不存在。

這是一種感覺的產物，即核協議簽署後，它無法單獨行動，然後——當美國在 2018 年退出協議時——以色列政治癱瘓和無能為力的結果，因為缺乏國家預算來分配計劃、培訓和準備此類任務所需的數十億謝克爾。

根據這些故事，隨著新的國家預算有望很快獲得批准並為此撥出資金，這些計劃現在正在修改，以色列——在不久的將來——將再次製定計劃。

以色列國防軍參謀長中將。Aviv Kochavi 在周二舉行的軍事情報部門新負責人換崗儀式上發表的評論中也暗示了這一點。

“針對伊朗核計劃的行動計劃將繼續發展並變得更加複雜。無論事態如何發展，我們都有責任提供有效、及時的軍事反應，”他說。

但這些新的改造計劃還沒有到位。

從表面上看，這兩條信息似乎是矛盾的。一方面，貝內特說以色列已經失去耐心，將在需要時採取行動，但另一方面，有一個精心策劃的信息正在傳播，雖然耶路撒冷可能願意在這件事上採取行動，但它不是還沒有準備好。

如果說在 2011 年以色列顯然能夠但不願意，那麼現在——根據這兩條信息——它願意但不能。

繼續假設——一個安全的——貝內特的消息和周五出現的消息是協調的，必須問一個簡單的問題：為什麼？

為什麼說有一天你準備好進攻，而另一方面又說你沒有準備好？或許是想向美國和國際社會傳達一個信息，他們還有一些時間試圖通過外交手段阻止伊朗的核計劃，但這段時間不是無限的，當以色列制定計劃時，它將是願意行動。

毫不奇怪，這兩條信息出現在美以高級別會談聚焦伊朗的前幾天。國家安全顧問埃亞爾胡拉塔週二抵達華盛頓，與美國同行傑克沙利文會談，討論伊朗問題。這將是兩國自 8 月以來的第三次會晤，來自各安全和情報部門的官員將參加會議，儘管美國打算重新與伊朗簽署核協議，但仍證明兩國之間的密切協調，而以色列認為這將是一個嚴重的錯誤。

外長亞伊爾·拉皮德和美國國務卿安東尼·布林肯下週在華盛頓舉行的預定會晤將擴大這些會議的規模。

在這些會議之前，美國向伊朗人和以色列人發出了自己的信息。

在給伊朗人的信息中，在胡拉塔 - 沙利文會議之前向記者介紹情況的一名美國高級官員似乎拒絕了伊朗外交部長侯賽因·阿米爾 - 阿卜杜拉希安週末提出的一項新要求，即如果美國想要更新核談判將不得不釋放“至少 100 億美元”的凍結資產。這位官員明確表示，這不會發生。

他還向以色列轉達了一條信息，稱美國將告訴胡拉塔的團隊，雖然拜登政府仍致力於與伊朗進行外交，但如果需要，它將尋求“其他途徑”以確保德黑蘭不會獲得核武器。

“我們當然仍然致力於外交途徑，”他說。“但顯然，如果這不起作用，還有其他途徑可以尋求，我們完全致力於確保伊朗永遠不會發展核武器。”

不出所料，這位官員並沒有說明其他路徑是什麼，但這聽起來很像前總統巴拉克奧巴馬和政府官員在過去十年開始時的評論，他們承諾雖然華盛頓更喜歡外交，但“所有選擇都在表”，以防止伊朗發展核。

這些評論是在以色列實際上製定了攻擊計劃的時候發表的，其目的是為了阻止以色列使用它，同時也是為了嚇跑伊朗人。因為如果美國正在考慮採取軍事行動，為什麼以色列要自己冒險呢？

快進十年，政府官員使用非常相似的語言，只是用“其他途徑”代替“不在討論範圍內”。這可能是出於同樣的目的，以防止以色列在修改計劃並準備就緒後實施攻擊計劃嗎？

Deciphering Israel's mixed messages on Iran's nuclear threat - analysis

Conflicting messages from high-level officials suggest Israel does not yet have a tangible plan in place to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon.

By HERB KEINON

OCTOBER 5, 2021 20:46

Missiles are displayed during Iran’s National Army Day parade in Tehran in September 2019.

(photo credit: WANA NEWS AGENCY/REUTERS)

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Israel’s public posture on Iran’s nuclear advancement last week was a tale of two messages.

The first was that of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who put the international community on notice during his UN speech that Israel’s patience was not endless.

“Over the past few years, Iran has made a major leap forward in its nuclear R&D, in its production capacity, and in its enrichment,” Bennett said.

“Iran’s nuclear program has hit a watershed moment – and so has our tolerance. Words do not stop centrifuges from spinning.’’

His message was clear, if not necessarily new. Israel will act if it must in order to prevent what it deems an existential threat from Iran.

人們對 COVID-19 的終結過於樂觀

認為 COVID-19 大流行已經結束的接種疫苗的人被比作波利亞娜——一個永遠、有時甚至是不合理地、樂觀的角色

作者：邁克爾·哈爾彭

2021 年 10 月 4 日 20:44

2021 年 7 月 15 日，人們戴著面具在耶路撒冷行走的說明照片。

（圖片來源：MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/耶路撒冷郵報）

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由於這次COVID-19大流行，每個猶太社區都像世界上所有其他社區一樣，都被風吹倒了。在我們彼此之間的距離遠小於六度的猶太世界中，沒有人不認識死於 COVID 的人。

一波又一波，我們應付了。謝天謝地，我們大多數人都戴著口罩，保持社交距離，並隨身攜帶洗手液。有些人比其他人更懷疑這些新行為的有效性，但當疫苗被引入我們的生活時，甚至許多懷疑論者也動搖了。

有一陣子，我們以為我們已經找到了走出這條黑暗隧道的出路，我們將能夠殺死名為 COVID 的巨龍並恢復我們的生活。只需要一拳。一個刺。接種疫苗。然後是另一個。

但隨後出現了新浪潮——新的變種。現在，在我們第一次學習冠狀病毒和 COVID 兩個詞後的 20 個月，我們正在努力保持安全和生存，並擊敗 Delta 變種。

德爾塔是破壞性的。它“穿透”了我們許多人——以及幾乎所有以色列人——接受的雙倍劑量的輝瑞疫苗。這就是為什麼以色列明智地開始其第三次射擊或助推器計劃的原因。正如納夫塔利·貝內特總理在聯合國大會上的講話中所描述的那樣，我們的抗體在減弱。

Moderna 的疫苗在對抗這種新的 COVID Delta 變體方面比輝瑞疫苗取得了更好的成功。疫苗之間存在這種差異的原因很簡單。輝瑞注射液含有 30 微克 mRNA，而 Moderna 注射液含有 100 微克 mRNA。

週一，50 歲以上年齡組的人們在卡茨林的 Clalit 醫療保健中心接種了第三劑 COVID-19 疫苗。（來源：邁克爾·吉拉迪/FLASH90）

但是現在出現了一個新問題。我們這些接種過疫苗的人已經與那些沒有接種過的人達成協議。我們可能不同意反疫苗者，但我們已經學會與他們一起生活（或與他們分開）並接受他們不接種疫苗的理由。但現在出現了一個新的群體。

他們是 COVID Pollyannas。

波莉安娜是埃莉諾·H·波特於 1913 年創作的兒童小說。這本書非常成功，很快就變成了系列叢書，然後在 1960 年，由海莉·米爾斯 (Hayley Mills) 主演的電影。年輕的孤兒波莉安娜是永遠的樂觀主義者。她相信，所有的逆境都可以用積極的態度來克服。

“Pollyannish”這個詞進入了字典，被定義為不合理或不合邏輯的樂觀。

我遇到了一些接種疫苗的人，他們告訴我——實際上是堅持——COVID 已經結束，而 Delta 變體是其他疾病的編造藉口。

當我第一次遇到這個奇怪的現實，我的第一個 COVID Pollyanna 時，我驚呆了。著實吃了一驚。怎麼會有人對如此明顯的事情如此視而不見？

我試圖指出差點死於 Delta 變體的人的例子。我談到一對夫妻，他們身體健康，都充滿活力，都接種了輝瑞疫苗，他們生病時在羅宋湯帶，卡茨基爾山脈。他們很快病得很重，被空運到紐約市地區的一家醫院，在那裡他們被注射了單克隆抗體。現在，六週後，他們好多了——但仍然沒有恢復到正常的自我或生活方式。

提出 COVID 已成為過去的人拒絕接受 COVID 確實讓他們如此生病。

我沒有試圖進一步說服他，而是決定嘗試了解他的想法。從那以後，我遇到了其他人，聰明的、受過教育的、有意識的人，他們得出了同樣的結論——同樣的錯誤、毫無根據和危險的結論。

想法是這樣的：我們幾乎都接種了疫苗，一旦接種了疫苗，我們就不會感染 COVID。所以這些人得到了別的東西，如果他們快死了，他們有其他條件導致他們死亡。

這些人並不反對疫苗。他們只是不了解病毒。沒有疫苗是完美的。變異體會發生變異，並在我們的免疫力中找到它們的出路。在科學的推動下，人們希望自然免疫力與疫苗相結合，能夠強大到足以防止我們感染病毒。這就是為什麼那些受到損害的人面臨如此高的風險。

我實際上贊成人們說出他們的想法。但在這種情況下，他們所說的話是危險的。許多 COVID Pollyannas 戲弄和嘲弄我們這些試圖小心謹慎的人。

在可預見的未來，COVID 已經到來。我們需要整裝待發，準備戰鬥。我們需要對此保持清醒。這就是我們——作為個人和社區——將如何生存，並希望甚至茁壯成長。

People are being too optimistic about the end of COVID-19

Vaccinated people who think the COVID-19 pandemic is over are compared to Pollyana - a character who is eternally, and sometimes unreasonably, optimistic

By MICAH HALPERN

OCTOBER 4, 2021 20:44

Illustrative photo of people walking in Jerusalem with masks, July 15, 2021.

(photo credit: MARC ISRAEL SELLEM/THE JERUSALEM POST)

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Every Jewish community, like every other community around the world, has had the wind knocked out of it as a result of this COVID-19 pandemic. No one in the Jewish world, where we are distanced from each other by far less than six degrees of separation, does not know someone who succumbed to COVID.

Wave after wave, we coped. Most of us, thankfully, masked and socially distanced and kept hand sanitizer by our side. Some were more skeptical about the efficacy of these new behaviors than were others, but by the time the vaccines were introduced into our lives, even many skeptics had been swayed.

And for a short while, we were lulled into thinking that we had found a way out of this dark tunnel, that we would be able to slay the dragon called COVID and resume our lives. And all it would take was a jab. A prick. A vaccination. And then another.

But then came the new wave – the new variant. And now, 20 months after we first learned the words coronavirus and COVID, we are fighting to stay safe and stay alive and to defeat the Delta variant.

Delta is destructive. It has “punched through” the double dose of Pfizer vaccine which many of us – and almost all of Israel – received. And that is why Israel wisely began its third shot or booster program. Our antibodies wane, just as Prime Minister Naftali Bennett described in his address before the United Nations General Assembly.

Moderna’s vaccine has had better success against this new COVID Delta variant than the Pfizer vaccine. There is a simple reason for that difference between vaccines. The Pfizer shot has 30 micrograms of mRNA, while the Moderna shot has 100 micrograms of mRNA.

PEOPLE IN THE 50+ age group receive a third dose of the COVID-19 vaccine at a Clalit Health Care Center in Katzrin on Monday. (credit: MICHAEL GILADI/FLASH90)

BUT NOW a new problem has arisen. Those of us who have taken the vaccine, or vaccines, have come to terms with those who have not. We may not agree with anti-vaxxers, but we have learned to live with them (or to separate from them) and to accept their reasons for not being vaccinated. But now a new group has emerged.

They are the COVID Pollyannas.

Pollyanna was a children’s novel written in 1913 by Eleanor H. Porter. It was so successful a book that it soon became a series of books and then, in 1960, a movie starring Hayley Mills. Pollyanna, a young orphan, was the eternal optimist. She believed that all adversity can be conquered with a positive attitude.

The word “Pollyannish” made it into the dictionary and is defined as unreasonably or illogically optimistic.

I am encountering people, vaccinated people, who are telling me – actually insisting – that COVID is over and that the Delta variant is a made-up excuse for other illnesses.

When I first encountered this strange reality, my first COVID Pollyanna, I was stunned. Truly taken aback. How could someone be so oblivious to that which is so obvious?

I tried to point out examples of people who nearly died from the Delta variant. I spoke about one husband and wife, both in good health, both vibrant, both double vaccinated with the Pfizer vaccine, who were in the Borscht Belt, the Catskill Mountains, when they fell ill. They quickly became so sick that they were airlifted to a hospital in the New York City area, where they were infused with monoclonal antibodies. Now, six weeks later, they are better – but still not back to their normal selves or lifestyle.

The person making the argument that COVID is a thing of the past refused to accept that it really was COVID that had made them so sick.

Instead of trying to further convince him, I decided to try to understand how he was thinking. I have since encountered others, bright, educated, aware people, who have come to the same conclusion – the same wrong, unfounded and dangerous conclusion.

The thinking goes something like this: We are almost all vaccinated, and once vaccinated, we will not get COVID. So these people are getting something else, and if they are dying, they have other conditions that are causing them to die.

These people are not anti-vaccine. They just do not understand the virus. No vaccine is perfect. Variants mutate and find their way through and around our immunity. The hope, boosted by science, is that natural immunity, in combination with vaccines, will be strong enough to keep us from succumbing to the virus. That is why those who are compromised are at such high risks.

I am actually in favor of people saying what is on their minds. But in this instance, what they are saying is dangerous. And many COVID Pollyannas tease and taunt those of us trying to be careful and conscientious.

COVID is here for the foreseeable future. We need to gear up and prepare for battle. We need to be smart about it. That’s how we – as individuals and as a community – will survive, and hopefully, even thrive.

The writer is a columnist and a social and political commentator.

阿司匹林可降低 COVID 風險：新發現支持以色列的初步試驗

該治療使達到機械通氣的風險降低了 44%。ICU 入院率降低了 43%，總體住院死亡率降低了 47%。

通過耶路撒冷郵報STAFF

2021 年 10 月 6 日 13:51

2021 年 9 月 23 日，Shaare Zedek 醫院團隊成員穿著安全裝備在耶路撒冷 Shaare Zedek 醫院的冠狀病毒病房工作。

（照片來源：YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90）

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喬治華盛頓大學的一項新研究表明，非處方阿司匹林可以保護 COVID-19 患者的肺部，並最大限度地減少對機械通氣的需求。

該團隊調查了來自美國各地醫院的 400 多名服用與 COVID 疾病無關的阿司匹林的 COVID 患者，發現該治療將幾個參數的風險降低了近一半：機械通氣率降低了 44%，ICU 入院率降低了 43% ，總院內死亡率降低了 47%。

“當我們了解血栓與 COVID-19 之間的聯繫時，我們知道用於預防中風和心髒病發作的阿司匹林對 COVID-19 患者可能很重要，”研究小組的喬納森·周博士說。“我們的研究發現低劑量阿司匹林與降低 COVID-19 嚴重程度和死亡之間存在關聯。”

藥丸（說明性）（來源：YOSSI ZAMIR/FLASH90）

低劑量阿司匹林是任何患有凝血問題或有中風危險的人的常見治療方法，包括大多數心髒病發作或心肌梗塞的人。冠狀病毒雖然影響呼吸系統，但一直與小血管凝血有關，導致肺部血液系統出現微小阻塞，導致ARDS——急性呼吸窘迫綜合徵。

今年 3 月，以色列研究人員在 Barzilai 醫療中心的初步試驗中得出了類似的結果。除了對血栓的影響外，他們還發現阿司匹林具有免疫學益處，服用阿司匹林的組首先感染病毒的可能性降低了 29%。

“阿司匹林成本低、容易獲得，數百萬人已經在使用它來治療他們的健康狀況，”周說。“對於那些希望降低 COVID-19 的一些最具破壞性影響的風險的人來說，發現這種關聯是一個巨大的勝利。”

Aspirin lowers risk of COVID: New findings support preliminary Israeli trial

The treatment reduced the risk of reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%. ICU admissions were lower by 43%, and an overall in-hospital mortality saw a 47% decrease.

By JERUSALEM POST STAFF

OCTOBER 6, 2021 13:51

Shaare Zedek hospital team members wearing safety gear work in the Coronavirus ward of Shaare Zedek hospital in Jerusalem on September 23, 2021.

(photo credit: YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90)

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Over-the-counter aspirin could protect the lungs of COVID-19 patients and minimize the need for mechanical ventilation, according to new research at the George Washington University.

The team investigated more than 400 COVID patients from hospitals across the United States who take aspirin unrelated to their COVID disease, and found that the treatment reduced the risk of several parameters by almost half: reaching mechanical ventilation by 44%, ICU admissions by 43%, and overall in-hospital mortality by 47%.

“As we learned about the connection between blood clots and COVID-19, we knew that aspirin – used to prevent stroke and heart attack – could be important for COVID-19 patients,” said Dr. Jonathan Chow of the study team. “Our research found an association between low-dose aspirin and decreased severity of COVID-19 and death.”

Pills (illustrative) (credit: YOSSI ZAMIR/FLASH90)

Low-dose aspirin is a common treatment for anyone suffering from blood clotting issues or in danger of stroke, including most people who had a heart attack or a myocardial infarction. Although affecting the respiratory system, the coronavirus has been associated with small blood vessel clotting, causing tiny blockages in the pulmonary blood system, leading to ARDS - acute respiratory distress syndrome.

Israeli researchers reached similar results in a preliminary trial at the Barzilai Medical Center in March. In addition to its effect on blood clots, they found that aspirin carried immunological benefits and that the group taking it was 29% less likely to become infected with the virus in the first place.

“Aspirin is low cost, easily accessible and millions are already using it to treat their health conditions,” said Chow. “Finding this association is a huge win for those looking to reduce risk from some of the most devastating effects of COVID-19.”

宗教服務部長支持拉比以外的婚姻選擇

宗教服務部長馬坦卡漢表示支持拉比以外的另一種婚姻形式。

作者：傑瑞米·沙龍

2021 年 10 月 6 日 21:34

宗教服務部長馬坦·卡哈納 (Matan Kahana) 表示，他支持通過首席拉比納 (Chief Rabbinate)替代宗教婚姻的婚姻形式，為那些目前無法在以色列結婚的人提供支持，這在當前爭奪地盤的鬥爭中開闢了另一條戰線。猶太國家的宗教。

儘管部長表示他相信現任政府能夠帶來這樣的改變，並且“我認為我們會找到方法來做到這一點”，但 Kahana 的一位發言人表示，他沒有立即實施這樣一個框架的計劃。

Kahana 的評論立即引起了極端正統派 MK 的譴責。

卡哈納週三表示，雖然他認為婚姻本身是一種宗教結構，但他認為，對於那些不能在以色列宗教機構結婚的人，應該有合法的替代方案，這是目前以色列唯一的婚姻途徑。

“我相信每個以色列公民都需要能夠以合法的方式實現他們的伙伴關係，”部長告訴 Ynet。

“我認為婚姻是一個宗教術語，應該保持'根據摩西和以色列的宗教'。有足夠多的拉比，在猶太教和猶太法律方面比我聰明得多，他們制定了[合法的、非宗教的伙伴關係]，”他繼續說道。

宗教事務部長 Matan Kahana 於 2021 年 7 月 26 日在耶路撒冷以色列議會議會大會堂出席全體會議。（圖片來源：YONATAN SINDEL/FLASH90）

Kahana 引用了 Gavison-Medan 關於 2003 年宗教和狀態的提案作為一個例子，該提案呼籲為異性戀者提供民事婚姻選擇，儘管條件是首席拉比尼德宣布猶太配偶是單身。

“我認為特別是這個聯盟可以做到這一點……我不認為如果我們[試圖]強迫某人在拉比中結婚，這會讓他在拉比中結婚，所以我相信在以色列國人民需要能夠實現他們的關係，即使他們不想通過拉比這樣做，”他說。

“我認為我們會想辦法做到這一點，”Kahana 總結道。

在上次選舉中，卡哈納本人是猶太復國主義者，所屬的亞米納黨幾乎沒有關於宗教和國家事務的具體政策建議。

由溫和的宗教猶太復國主義拉比提出的一項提案，其中一些人與卡哈納關係密切，被稱為“民事夥伴關係”選項，在以色列具有與婚姻相同的法律地位，但保留專門用於宗教儀式的“婚姻”一詞.

儘管 Kahana 的發言人表示，部長並沒有特別提到民事伴侶關係，但這可能是他可以採取的方向。

極端正統派沙斯黨的 MK Yoav Ben-Tzur 譴責部長的評論，他說：“自從 Matan Kahana 上任以來，他一直致力於通過對 kashrut、皈依、婚姻和猶太人身份進行危險的改革來破壞猶太教的原則。卡哈納不是宗教服務部長，他是摧毀宗教和摧毀猶太教的部長。”

然而，自由宗教-猶太復國主義遊說團體 Ne'emanei Torah Va'Avodah 對 Kahana 的評論表示歡迎，稱目前的情況是站不住腳的，並且可以使用與猶太法律相稱的解決方案。

該組織表示：“我們呼籲為所有夫婦制定適當的解決方案，以加強宗教婚姻制度。”

Religious services minister backs marriage alternative outside of rabbinate

Religious Services Minister Matan Kahan expressed support for an alternative form of marriage outside the rabbinate.

By JEREMY SHARON

OCTOBER 6, 2021 21:34

Religious Services Minister Matan Kahana has said that he supports a form of marriage that would be an alternative to religious marriage through the Chief Rabbinate, for those who cannot currently get married in Israel, opening up yet another front in the current fight over the place of religion in the Jewish state.

Although the minister said he believes the current government is uniquely able to bring about such change and that “I think we’ll find ways to do it,” a spokesman for Kahana said that he does not have immediate plans to implement such a framework.

Kahana’s comments immediately drew condemnation from ultra-Orthodox MKs.

Kahana said on Wednesday that although he believes marriage itself is a religious construct, he believes that there should be legal alternatives for those who cannot marry in Israel’s religious institutions, currently the only avenue for marriage in Israel.

“I believe that every citizen of Israel needs to be able to actualize their partnership in a legal manner,” the minister told Ynet.

“I think that marriage is a religious term which should remain ‘according to the religion of Moses and Israel.’ There are enough rabbis, much wiser than me in Judaism and Jewish law, who have outlines [for legal, nonreligious partnerships],” he continued.

Kahana referenced as one example the Gavison-Medan proposals on religion and state of 2003, which called for a civil marriage option for heterosexuals, albeit on condition of a declaration from the Chief Rabbinate that Jewish spouses are single.

“I think that specifically this coalition can do this…. I don’t think that if we [try to] force someone to marry in the rabbinate it will make him get married in the rabbinate, and so I am convinced that in the State of Israel people need to be able to actualize their relationship even if they don’t want to do so through the rabbinate,” he said.

“I think we’ll find ways to do it,” Kahana concluded.

During the last election, the mostly religious Yamina Party, to which Kahana, who is himself religious-Zionist, belongs, had virtually no concrete policy proposals on religion and state matters.

One proposal advanced by moderate religious-Zionist rabbis, some of whom Kahana is close to, is known as the “civil partnership” option that would have the same legal status as marriage in Israel, but reserves the term “marriage” specifically for religious ceremonies.

Although Kahana’s spokesman said the minister was not specifically referring to civil partnerships, it is possible that this is the kind of direction he could take.

MK Yoav Ben-Tzur, of the ultra-Orthodox Shas Party, condemned the minister’s comments, saying, “Since Matan Kahana took office, he has worked to undermine the principles of Judaism through dangerous reforms on kashrut, conversion, marriage and Jewish identity. Kahana is not the minister of religious services, he is the minister of destroying religion and the destruction of Judaism.”

The liberal religious-Zionist lobbying group Ne’emanei Torah Va’Avodah welcomed Kahana’s comments, however, saying the current situation is untenable and that solutions commensurate with Jewish law are available.

“We call for the advancement of an appropriate solution for all couples which would strengthen the institution of religious marriage,” the organization said.

以色列的阿拉伯少數民族是否走到了十字路口？- 分析

以色列的阿拉伯社會正在發生變化。問題是這是否會推動他們在以色列社會中前進。

作者：SETH J. FRANZMAN

2021 年 10 月 6 日 21:32

消防員撲滅了 Lod 的一輛警車，上週三在該市發生騷亂的阿拉伯居民將這輛警車連同商店和其他財產一起焚燒。

（圖片來源：YOSSI ALONI/FLASH90）

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以色列最近組建政府的主要轉折點之一是拉姆黨加入聯盟的意願。

這有助於使主要由猶太政黨組成的聯盟在前總理本雅明·內塔尼亞胡 (Benjamin Netanyahu) 上台 10 年後推翻他。但 Ra'am 的參與也很有趣，因為它不代表以色列歷史上阿拉伯左翼的參與，而是宗教右翼的參與。

這並不完全是歷史上的第一次。阿拉伯政黨在以色列的聯合政治中發揮了作用，不僅在 1950 年代一些人與執政的工黨合作，而且在 1990 年代他們仍然在聯盟之外但支持伊扎克·拉賓政府。Ra'am 做出了加入聯盟並公開參加會議的重大選擇。

奇怪的是，更有可能參加聯合推翻內塔尼亞胡的候選人應該是艾曼奧德，他的根源是哈達什黨，其中包括猶太人和阿拉伯人，並且根源於以色列的共產主義選民。

然而奧德拒絕參與，部分原因是他管理著聯合名單，其中包括對以色列政府中的任何角色抱有敵意的阿拉伯政客。

簡而言之，據稱擁抱共存的激進左翼反對聯盟，而更多宗教右翼阿拉伯選民似乎支持它。

在這一歷史性的妥協是由猶太和阿拉伯政黨聯合起來共同努力的同時，也有證據表明以色列的阿拉伯人在經濟上取得了重大進展。

這可能代表著從地方層面的經濟成功——企業在鄉村蓬勃發展，但避稅、灰色市場和影子經濟也蓬勃發展——向一體化的轉變。

以色列過去常常忽視阿拉伯地區，不發展為阿拉伯地區服務的公共交通、高速公路或鐵路線。因為以色列的大多數社區都是分裂的，這使得該國四分之一的地區幾乎無法使用。在內蓋夫，它讓超過 10 萬名貝都因人真正脫離了電網，缺乏電力、診所、公園和學校等基本設施。在其他地區，這意味著道路沒有標誌，大量的房屋開工沒有記錄或非法。計劃幾乎不存在。

儘管存在這個長期存在的問題，但如今人們更多地認識到整合是可能的。以色列創新局首席執行官 Dror Bin 最近接受了 Calcalist 的 CTech 採訪。“這個問題也與代表性不足的人群——極端正統派、阿拉伯人和婦女——的融合密切相關。如果我們想增加人力資本，我們必須接觸到高科技沒有代表的人群：最直接的是已經處於國家中心並有空的女性，同時也接觸到極端正統派和阿拉伯人。

“已經為阿拉伯社會制定了一項專門計劃，未來五年預算為 2.5 億新謝克爾（7800 萬美元），”他說。“將有一個計劃將阿拉伯社會的就業和創業結合起來。這是以色列國第一次在阿拉伯人口的融合方面投入如此大的資金。

“我們不希望這裡有兩個國家，一個蓬勃發展的高科技國家，而另一個則落在後面。”

今年早些時候，猶太人和阿拉伯人在特拉維夫公共安全部長 Amir Ohana 家外抗議以色列-阿拉伯社區的高犯罪率和暴力行為。（來源：MIRIAM ASTER/FLASH90）

以色列領導人對阿拉伯少數民族進行更多外展活動的原因可能是多方面的。

+972 雜誌引用了 Rasool Saada 的話說，他是以色列社會變革網絡 Maoz 的安全社區倡議的負責人。文章指出，猶太國家“發現阿拉伯社會更願意合作，”薩達解釋說。因此，政府開始將注意力轉向滿足更多阿拉伯社會的需求——主要是為自己的經濟利益服務。”

文章說，薩達看到了這種政治利益的成功，以及“我們都在實地感受到的推動。雙方都知道，這可能是一次短暫的情況，在這種情況下，為了以色列社會雙方的利益，眾星齊聚。”

這種變化也有必然結果。阿拉伯社會正在發生變化。更多的阿拉伯人正在獲得高等教育學位。最近一項基於對阿拉伯婦女的採訪的研究“表明，高等教育和加入勞動力市場的結合挑戰了傳統的婚姻動態。”

高科技公司也推出了許多與阿拉伯社區互動的新舉措。在一個項目中，更多德魯茲女性加入了一家金融科技公司。

還有很多工作要做。一項研究表明，雖然有 4,000 名阿拉伯工程師在以色列高科技領域工作，但他們僅佔技術勞動力的 1.5%。

據《猶太新聞》(Jewish News) 的一篇文章稱，MoveUp 是英國大使館和 Presentense 的英國以色列技術中心與花旗基金會和 Takwin VC 合作的合作項目，一直在幫助阿拉伯社會融入高科技工作場所。

雖然在政治和經濟上存在整合，但也有推動安全部隊停止傷害阿拉伯社區的廣泛槍支暴力。

幾十年來，國家忽視阿拉伯城鎮和村莊的暴力，因為它認為只要不成為“民族主義”或包括恐怖襲擊，就不值得解決。這意味著槍支暴力、毒品、幫派和家庭襲擊在很大程度上被忽視了。

這與當地人懷疑與以色列警方合作密切相關。在某些地方，國家幾乎被視為敵人。

以色列意識到不需要挑釁和對抗，從而將阿拉伯人推入更加民族主義的陣營，試圖無所作為。

這是內塔尼亞胡現狀的一部分，內塔尼亞胡寧願推開各種問題，也不願面對阿拉伯人、極端正統派和其他團體之間根深蒂固的利益。例如，他推動了普拉沃計劃在內蓋夫組織貝都因社區。

現在，新政府希望通過經濟支持和安全服務來解決這些問題，例如 Shin Bet（以色列安全局）追查非法武器。

在 5 月加沙沖突期間，這些武器成為一個明顯的威脅，當時一些混合城鎮發生了廣泛的暴力事件，猶太人和阿拉伯人在那裡互相私刑。Lod 陷入無政府狀態，當地人說以色列警察和以色列政界人士似乎放棄了這座城市好幾天。結果是，來自西岸猶太社區的武裝人員前往洛德幫助保護猶太社區，而街頭也出現了武裝阿拉伯人。

警察、邊防警察和其他單位花了幾天時間才恢復秩序。這種情況讓以色列暫時看起來像是已經傷害了伊拉克和黎巴嫩的教派民兵混亂。

政府現在想收繳非法槍支。公民很難獲得合法的槍支，但有證據表明，在以色列的一些阿拉伯社區中，有成千上萬甚至數万件非法持有的武器。幫派、以色列黑手黨和其他人的火力是巨大的。

內蓋夫的一些視頻顯示，婚禮上的男人使用似乎是從以色列國防軍基地偷來的槍支。多年來，以色列國防軍士兵一直抱怨他們無法阻止盜竊。這意味著雖然在西岸被盜的武器會被追查到，但有些人認為綠線內沒有採取任何行動。現在這可能正在改變。但問題是，沒收非法武器的企圖是否會遭遇暴力。

在Kafr Kassem 發生了一起令人擔憂的事件，涉及針對警察的暴力行為。“我已向警察局長 Kobi Shabtai 表達了我的明確譴責，希望警察能早日康復，並強調維護法治和與警方合作的義務，”Ra'am 的阿巴斯在致電警方後說。警察局長。

Israel Hayom 說阿拉伯人要求在他們的社區進行“治理”。然而，目前尚不清楚增加警務或使用安全部隊將如何受到歡迎。在某些社區，情況可能會有所不同。司法部長吉迪恩·薩爾（Gideon Sa'ar）表示，阿拉伯社區的暴力事件比真主黨的威脅更大。

但是，如果以色列將這些社區視為恐怖分子的避風港，則可能會造成抵抗循環。這是以色列自 1950 年代以來一直擔心的問題。沒有人想讓哈馬斯或極端分子站穩腳跟。這意味著非法建築、非法武器，甚至極端主義傳教士滲入清真寺——有時是通過與希伯倫甚至遠在土耳其的網絡相關的網絡提供信息——都被忽視了。

同時，值得一提的是，像 Kfar Kassem 這樣的一些社區對以色列安全部隊過去的暴力行為有著不好的回憶。1956 年，以色列軍隊在該鎮槍殺了 48 名平民，打死了 23 名未成年人和 18 歲以下兒童。2000 年和其他年份的其他近期事件導致安全部隊殺害了阿拉伯平民。

除了安全問題和讓阿拉伯人融入勞動力的願望之外，以色列的阿拉伯人和猶太人的疫苗接種率也存在重大差異。這也影響了東正教社區，懷疑接種疫苗意味著他們不太可能接種疫苗。報告顯示，八月份只有一半的阿拉伯社區接種了疫苗，而所有以色列人的接種率則為三分之二。

這意味著對當局的懷疑導致疫苗接種減少，因此阿拉伯人在受到嚴重 Covid 病例傷害的人中所佔的比例不成比例。9 月的一份報告稱，40% 的新 Covid 病例發生在阿拉伯社區。

這指向以色列的十字路口。將經濟成就列入阿拉伯社區議程的主要動力正在發生。然而，關鍵問題仍然存在。什麼時候會在阿拉伯城鎮建立大型經濟區，這些城鎮什麼時候才能擁有猶太地區擁有的現代購物中心和鐵路網絡？高科技何時會遷移到阿拉伯部門？阿拉伯人甚麼時候不需要去很遠的地方上班，而是可以在他們的社區中獲得更高薪的工作？

與此同時，關於何時將法律應用於這些社區的問題仍然存在，包括沒收武器、放置適當的交通信號以及確保人們支付 arnona（市政稅）以便社區可以建立公園和娛樂場所.

規劃當局最終會為阿拉伯城鎮提供城市規劃嗎？有組織的犯罪會減少嗎？Lod危機之後對“內戰”的擔憂會減少嗎？內蓋夫社區會發生什麼？

問題很多，以色列還有很長的路要走。問題是政府和阿拉伯社區未來是否會開始走正確的道路。

Has Israel’s Arab minority reached a crossroads? - analysis

Arab society in Israel is changing. The question is whether or not this will push them forward in Israeli society.

By SETH J. FRANTZMAN

OCTOBER 6, 2021 21:32

FIREFIGHTERS EXTINGUISH a police car in Lod that was torched along with shops and other property by Arab residents rioting in the city last Wednesday.

(photo credit: YOSSI ALONI/FLASH90)

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One of the major turning points in the formation of the recent government in Israel was the willingness of the Ra’am Party to participate in the coalition.

This helped enable a coalition of mostly Jewish parties to unseat former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu after he had clung to power for 10 years. But the participation of Ra’am is also interesting because it doesn’t represent the participation of the historical Arab Left in Israel, but actually the religious Right.

This is not entirely a historical first. Arab parties have played a role in Israeli coalition politics, not only in the 1950s when some worked with the ruling Labor Party, but also in the 1990s when they remained outside the coalition but supported Yitzhak Rabin’s government. Ra’am made a major choice to be in the coalition and participate openly in meetings.

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The odd thing here is that the more likely candidate for participation in a coalition to unseat Netanyahu should have been Ayman Odeh, whose roots are in the Hadash Party, which includes Jews and Arabs and has roots in Communist voters in Israel.

Yet Odeh refrained from participation, in part because he runs the Joint List, which includes Arab politicians who have hostile views about any role in an Israeli government.

In short, the radical Left which supposedly embraces coexistence opposed the coalition, while more religious right-wing Arab voters appeared to support it.

At the same time that this historic compromise was made by Jewish and Arab parties to work together in a coalition, there is also evidence that Arabs in Israel are making major strides economically.

This may represent a shift from economic success on the local level – where businesses thrived in villages but where tax avoidance, gray markets and a shadow economy also thrived – to integration.

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Israel often ignored the Arab sector in the past, not developing public transport, highways or rail lines that served Arab areas. Because most communities in Israel are divided, that left a quarter of the country almost off the grid. In the Negev it left more than 100,000 people of Bedouin origin truly outside the grid, lacking basic things like electricity, health clinics, parks and schools. In other areas, it meant roads didn’t have signs, and massive numbers of housing starts were undocumented or illegal. Planning was almost nonexistent.

Despite that persistent issue, today there is more recognition that integration is possible. Dror Bin, the chief executive officer of the Israel Innovation Authority, spoke to CTech by Calcalist recently. “This issue is also very much related to the integration of underrepresented populations – ultra-Orthodox, Arabs and women. If we want to increase the human capital, we must reach populations that are not represented in hi-tech: most immediately, the women who are already at the center of the country and available, and also reaching out to the ultra-Orthodox and the Arabs.

“A dedicated plan has been drawn up for Arab society with a budget of NIS 250 million ($78m.) for the next five years,” he said. “There will be a program that will combine employment and entrepreneurship in Arab society. This is the first time that the State of Israel has invested such an amount in the integration of the Arab population.

“We do not want there to be two countries here, one thriving hi-tech state while the other is left behind.”

JEWS AND ARABS protest outside the home of public security minister Amir Ohana in Tel Aviv, earlier this year, against the high crime rate and violence in the Israeli-Arab communities. (credit: MIRIAM ASTER/FLASH90)

THE REASON that Israel’s leaders are doing more outreach to the Arab minority may be multilayered.

+972 Magazine quoted Rasool Saada, an attorney who directs the Safe Communities Initiative at the Israeli social change network Maoz. The article notes that the Jewish state “found that Arab society was more ready and willing to cooperate, Saada explains. Accordingly, the government began turning its attention to meeting more of Arab society’s needs – primarily to serve its own economic interests.”

The article says that Saada sees success in this political interest and “a push that we all feel on the ground. Each side knows that this is likely a onetime and brief situation, in which the stars have aligned for the good of both sides in Israeli society.”

There are corollaries to this change as well. Arab society is changing. More Arabs are getting degrees in higher education. A recent study based on interviews with Arab women “shows that a combination of higher education and joining the workforce have challenged the traditional marriage dynamic.”

There are also many new initiatives by hi-tech firms to engage with Arab communities. One program saw more Druze women join a fintech firm.

There is still a lot of work to be done. One study showed that while there are 4,000 Arab engineers working in Israeli hi-tech, they make up only 1.5% of the tech workforce.

MoveUp, a collaboration between the UK Israel Tech Hub at the British Embassy and Presentense, in partnership with CITI Foundation and Takwin VC, has been aiding Arab society to integrate into the hi-tech workplace, according to an article at Jewish News.

WHILE THERE is integration politically and economically, there is also a push for the security forces to stop widespread gun violence that harms the Arab community.

For many decades the state ignored violence in Arab towns and villages because it believed it wasn’t worth tackling as long as it did not become “nationalist” or include terrorist attacks. That meant that gun violence, drugs, gangs and domestic assaults were largely ignored.

This went hand in hand with a suspicion by locals against working with the Israel Police. In some places the state was seen as almost an enemy.

Israel, cognizant of the need not to provoke and antagonize and thus push Arabs into a more nationalist camp, sought to simply do nothing.

This was part of the Netanyahu status quo that preferred pushing various issues off rather than confronting entrenched interests among Arabs, ultra-Orthodox and other groups. He pushed off the Prawer plan, for instance, to organize Bedouin communities in the Negev.

Now the new government wants to deal with these issues via economic support and also using the security services, such as the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) to go after illegal weapons.

The weapons became a clear threat during the May clashes in Gaza, when there was widespread violence in some mixed towns, where Jews and Arabs lynched one another. Lod fell into anarchy, and locals say the Israel Police and Israeli politicians appeared to abandon the city for days. The result was that armed men from Jewish communities in the West Bank went to Lod to help protect Jewish communities, while armed Arabs were also seen on the streets.

It took days for the police, with Border Police and other units, to restore order. That situation made Israel look, temporarily, like it had the sectarian militia chaos that has harmed Iraq and Lebanon.

The government now wants to collect the illegal guns. It is difficult for citizens to obtain legal firearms, but evidence shows that there are thousands, if not tens of thousands of weapons held illegally throughout some Arab communities in Israel. The firepower at the disposal of gangs, Israeli mafias and others is huge.

Some videos in the Negev have shown men at weddings using what appear to be guns stolen from IDF bases. For years IDF soldiers have complained they were unable to stop the thefts. That means that while a weapon stolen in the West Bank would be tracked down, some felt nothing was being done inside the Green Line. Now that may be changing. But the question is whether the attempt to seize illegal weapons will be met with violence.

In Kafr Kassem a worrying incident involved violence against police. “I have expressed my unequivocal condemnation to Police Commissioner Kobi Shabtai, wished a speedy recovery to the police officers, and emphasized the obligation to uphold the rule of law and cooperation with police,” Ra’am’s Abbas said, following a phone call to the police chief.

Israel Hayom says that Arabs are demanding “governance” in their communities. However, it is not clear how increased policing or the use of the security forces will be greeted. It may be that in some communities things will go differently. Justice Minister Gideon Sa’ar has said the violence in Arab communities is a greater threat than Hezbollah.

But if Israel treats these communities like havens for terrorists, it could create a cycle of resistance. That is what Israel has always feared since the 1950s. No one wants to enable Hamas or extremists to gain a foothold. This means that illegal construction, illegal weapons and even the infiltration of extremist preachers into mosques – sometimes informed by networks linked to Hebron and even as far afield as Turkey – have been ignored.

At the same time, it is worth recalling that some communities like Kfar Kassem have bad memories of Israeli security forces’ violence in the past. In 1956, Israeli forces gunned down 48 civilians in the town, killing 23 minors and children under 18. Other more recent incidents, in 2000 and other years, have led to the killing of Arab civilians by security forces.

BEYOND THE security issue and the desire to get Arabs integrated into the workforce, there is also a major difference between vaccination rates of Arabs and Jews in Israel. This also affects the Orthodox community, where suspicion of vaccination means they are less likely to be vaccinated. Reports show that in August only half of the Arab community was vaccinated compared to two-thirds of all Israelis.

What this means is that suspicion of the authorities has led to less vaccinations, and therefore Arabs make up a disproportionate number of those harmed by serious Covid cases. A September report said 40% of new Covid cases were among the Arab community.

This points to a crossroads in Israel. A major drive is taking place to put economic achievement on the agenda for Arab communities. Key questions remain, however. When will large economic zones be built in Arab towns, and when will those towns have the modern shopping centers and rail networks that Jewish areas have? When will hi-tech migrate to the Arab sector? When will Arabs not have to commute far to work but have access to the higher paying jobs in their communities?

At the same time, questions remain as to when laws will be applied to these communities, including confiscating weapons, putting in proper traffic signals and also making sure that people pay arnona (municipal tax) so that the communities can put in place parks and recreation.

Will planning authorities finally provide urban plans for Arab towns? Will organized crime be reduced? Will concerns over “civil war” in the wake of the Lod crisis be reduced? What will happen to Negev communities?

There are many questions, and Israel has a long road ahead. The question is whether the government and Arab communities will begin to take the right path in the future.

13,000 年前史前人類在約旦河上飛釣

Tel-Hai 學院和國際考古學家的一項新研究表明，以色列的古代漁民採用了令人難以置信的尖端技術。

作者：羅塞拉·特卡特

2021 年 10 月 6 日 21:42

來自 Dureijat 的史前捕魚工具。

（圖片來源：GONEN SHARON 教授，TEL HAI 學院）

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週三發表在PLOS ONE雜誌上的一項新研究顯示，大約 13,000 年前，草裙舞谷的史前居民在約旦河上飛釣，並使用了極其複雜的捕魚工具。

來自加利利 Tel-Hai 學院以及美國、意大利和德國的研究人員採用多學科方法分析了在 Dureijat 遺址收集的文物和其他遺骸，包括幾個骨魚鉤和六塊帶凹槽的石頭.

這些發現代表了世界上最古老的將魚鉤變成誘餌的證據。

“使用三維掃描和高倍顯微鏡技術，我們能夠重現製作鉤子的先進技術，”該研究的主要作者兼加利利研究碩士項目主任 Gonen Sharon 教授在電話海說。“每個掛鉤本身就是一件藝術品，沒有兩個掛鉤的尺寸相同。

Dureijat 是在 1999 年在呼拉谷進行排水作業後首次發現的。

20,000 年前，狩獵採集者群體開始訪問它，並持續使用了大約 10,000 年。

約旦河上的 Dureijat 遺址（來源：GONEN SHARON 教授，電話海學院）

在發現的文物中，還有石灰石網墜。在古漁民也使用的植物材料，以配合細釣線和樹脂作為膠。考古學家還發現了誘餌的證據，這是有史以​​來發現的飛釣方法最古老的證據。

“大小和類型的多樣性令人驚嘆，它們的製作所體現的技術無與倫比，”沙龍說。“現在我們知道，除了用金屬做魚鉤和用尼龍做魚線之外，現代釣魚沒有發明任何東西。”

考古學家還在現場發現了大量魚骨。對骨骼和牙齒的研究表明，這條魚長達兩米。

豐富的環境可能幫助最後的狩獵採集者過渡到以農業為基礎的久坐不動的生活方式。

13,000 years ago prehistoric people went flyfishing on the Jordan River

A new study by Tel-Hai College and international archaeologists showed that ancient fishermen in Israel employed incredibly sophisticated technology.

By ROSSELLA TERCATIN

OCTOBER 6, 2021 21:42

Prehistoric fishing tools from Dureijat.

(photo credit: PROF. GONEN SHARON, TEL HAI ACADEMIC COLLEGE)

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Some 13,000 years ago, prehistoric inhabitants of the Hula Valley went flyfishing on the Jordan River and employed incredibly sophisticated fishing tools, a new study published in the journal PLOS ONE on Wednesday revealed.

The researchers from the Tel-Hai College in the Galilee, as well as from the United States, Italy and Germany, employed a multidisciplinary approach to analyze artifacts and other remains collected at the site of Dureijat, including several bone fish hooks and six grooved stones.

The findings represent the world's most ancient evidence for turning the hooks themselves into bait.

“Using the technique of three-dimensional scanning and high-magnification microscopes, we were able to reproduce the advanced technology through which the hooks were made,” Prof. Gonen Sharon, lead author of the study and director of the MA Program in Galilee Studies at Tel-Hai, said. “Each hook is a work of art in itself and no two hooks are the same size.

Dureijat was first discovered following a drainage operation in the Hula Valley in 1999.

It started to be visited by groups of hunter-gatherers 20,000 years ago and remained in use for about 10,000 years.

Dureijat site on the Jordan River (credit: PROF. GONEN SHARON, TEL HAI ACADEMIC COLLEGE)

Among the artifacts found were also limestone net sinkers. The ancient fishers also used plant materials to tie fine fishing line and resin as glue. Archaeologists also found evidence of lures, the most ancient testimony of flyfishing methods ever uncovered.

“The variety of size and types is amazing and the technology expressed in their making is just incomparable,” said Sharon. “Now we know that apart from using metal for the hooks and nylon for the line modern fishing invented nothing.”

The archaeologists also uncovered a large amount of fish bones at the site. The study of the bones, as well as of the teeth, showed that the fish were as long as two meters.

The rich environment likely helped the last hunter-gatherers transition to a sedentary lifestyle, based on agriculture.

Iranians burn an Israeli flag during a rally marking the annual Quds Day, or Jerusalem Day, in Tehran, Iran May 7, 2021. (credit: MAJID ASGARIPOUR/WANA (WEST ASIA NEWS AGENCY) VIA REUTERS)

That was one message.

But then another message – starkly different – came out in several analysis pieces in the Israeli media that appeared a few days later on Friday (including in The Jerusalem Post), all saying essentially the same thing: Israel does not have an up-to-date and effective military plan for hitting Iran’s nuclear installations.

That the pieces all appeared on the same day and had the same underlying message was an indication that senior journalists were briefed by a high-level official. And the message that emerged was that, while a decade ago Israel had a plan on how to attack Iran’s nuclear program, once the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action was concluded in 2015 and it became clear that Israel could not now buck the will of the world and hit Iran militarily to keep it from racing toward nukes, those plans – including the budget that allocated considerable sums to train and acquire the military hardware to carry out such an attack – were scratched.

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In other words, while a decade ago Israel had what it felt was a credible and effective plan to thwart its existential threat, today those plans simply do not exist.

This is the product of a feeling that after the nuclear deal was signed, it could not act alone, and then – when the US-backed out of the deal in 2018 – the result of the political paralysis in Israel and an inability, because of the lack of a state budget, to allocate the billions of shekels needed to plan, train and prepare for such a mission.

According to these stories, with the new state budget soon expected to be approved and money earmarked for this purpose, the plans are now being revamped, and Israel – in the near future – will again have a plan.

IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Aviv Kochavi implied as much in comments he made Tuesday at the changing-of-the-guard ceremony for the new head of Military Intelligence.

“Operational plans against Iran’s nuclear program will continue to evolve and become more sophisticated. Whatever the developments, it is our duty to provide an effective, timely military response,” he said.

But those new revamped plans are not in place yet.

On the surface, these two messages seem contradictory. On the one hand, Bennett is saying Israel has run out of patience and will take action when need be, yet on the other hand, there was an orchestrated message being broadcast that while Jerusalem may be willing to move on this matter, it is not yet ready.

If in 2011 Israel was apparently able but not willing, now – according to these two messages – it is willing but not able.

Going on the assumption – a safe one – that Bennett’s message and the one that appeared on Friday were coordinated, one simple question must be asked: Why?

Why say you’re ready to attack on one day, yet on the other say you are not? Perhaps to send a message to the US and the world community that they still have some time to try and block Iran’s nuclear march through diplomatic means, but that this period is not unlimited, and that when Israel gets a plan in place, it will be willing to act.

Not surprisingly, these two messages emerged just days before high-level US-Israel talks focusing on Iran. National Security Advisor Eyal Hulata arrived in Washington for talks Tuesday with his US counterpart, Jake Sullivan, to discuss Iran. This will be the third meeting between the two, who will be joined by officials from various security and intelligence branches, since August, and attests to close coordination between the two countries even though the US aims to re-enter the nuclear deal with Iran, while Israel believes this would be a grave mistake.

These meetings will be augmented by a scheduled meeting next week in Washington between Foreign Minister Yair Lapid and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

Before those meetings, the US sent out messages of its own, both to the Iranians and to Israel.

In a message to the Iranians, a senior American official who briefed reporters before the Hulata-Sullivan meeting appeared to shoot down one of their new demands, floated over the weekend by Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, that if the US wants to renew nuclear talks it would have to free up “at least $10 billion” in frozen assets. This is not going to happen, the official made clear.

And he also relayed a message to Israel saying that the US will tell Hulata’s team that while the Biden administration remains committed to diplomacy with Iran, if needed, it will pursue “other avenues” to make sure Tehran does not get nuclear weapons.

“We of course remain committed to a diplomatic path,” he said. “But obviously if that doesn’t work there are other avenues to pursue, and we are fully committed to ensuring that Iran never develops a nuclear weapon.”

The official, predictably, did not spell out what those other paths were, but this sounded very much like comments made at the beginning of the last decade by former president Barack Obama and administration officials pledging that while Washington preferred diplomacy, “all options were on the table” in keeping Iran from going nuclear.

Those comments were made at a time when Israel actually had a plan of attack and was designed as much to keep Israel from using it, as it was to scare off the Iranians. For if the US was considering military action, why would Israel want to risk it by itself?

Fast forward a decade, and administration officials are using very similar language, just substituting “not off the table” with “other avenues.” Might this be for the same purpose, to prevent Israel from implementing plans to attack once they have those plans revamped and ready to go?

諾亞方舟的位置終於用 3D 掃描證實了嗎？

托拉告訴我們，方舟降落在亞拉臘山的山丘上，亞拉臘山是土耳其東部邊境附近的一座休眠火山。Durupinar 遺址位於該山以南約 30 公里處。

作者：哈達斯·拉布里施

2021 年 10 月 3 日 07:32

佛蘭德畫家西蒙·德·邁爾 (Simon de Myle) 的“亞拉臘山上的諾亞方舟”（1570 年）。

（圖片來源：維基共享資源）

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1959 年，一位名叫 Ilhan Durupinar 的製圖師在土耳其 Dogubayazit 地區的一座山頂上發現了一個船形的足跡。現在，諾亞方舟發現項目的美國研究人員和土耳其科學家聲稱，他們有證據表明聖經遺物位於杜魯皮納爾表面之下。

使用 GPR 和 ERT 技術的 3D 掃描，研究人員聲稱他們在開始任何挖掘之前在地下發現了一個人造船結構。據該團隊稱，掃描中確定的地層與諾亞方舟創世紀描述的尺寸相匹配。

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Antisemitic graffiti found atAuschwitz‑Birkenau Nazi death camp

本週的

妥拉部分

講述了上帝指示諾亞建造方舟並隨身攜帶每隻動物的雄性和雌性的故事。文中對器皿的大小和結構進行了具體描述：長300肘，寬50肘，高30肘。Cubits 是希伯來語中稱為

Ama

的聖經術語，意思是“前臂”，估計長約 18 英寸，或約半米長。

托拉進一步告訴我們，方舟降落在靠近土耳其東部邊界的休眠火山亞拉臘山的山丘上。Durupinar 遺址位於該山以南約 30 公里處。

伊斯坦布爾大學應用地球物理系地球物理工程系的研究員 Andrew Jones 和首席科學家 Fethi Ahmet Yüksel 博士認為，掃描結果表明，地表下有一個人造人工製品，很可能是方舟，他們非常渴望繼續研究該位置。

“新的 GPR 數據顯示了 8 到 20 英尺下方的平行線和角結構，”該團隊在他們的項目網站上聲稱。“這些平行線和地表下方的直角是您在自然地質構造中不會看到的。”

亞拉臘山俯瞰亞美尼亞西部一片被侵蝕的 khachkars（亞美尼亞十字石），出自《100 (1915-2015)》一書。（信用：HRAIR 'HAWK' KHATCHERIAN）

然而，科學界並不熱衷於接受他們的假設。自從土耳其船長最初發現以來，杜魯皮納爾遺址就作為諾亞方舟的所在地一再受到質疑和反駁。在 1970 年代到 1990 年代，美國研究員 Ron Wyatt 研究了該遺址並發表了他的發現，隨後地質學家洛倫斯柯林斯於 1996 年在《地球科學教育雜誌》上系統地駁斥了這一發現，認為這些發現是具有不尋常結構的天然岩層。

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公共和學術興趣的起起落落足以促使土耳其文化部將該遺址置於國家保護之下並將其標記為國家公園，但尚未批准任何官方挖掘項目。土耳其和外國的幾個獨立團隊正在同時研究該網站。

即使在最初的發現被認為是膚淺的和自然現象之後，一些人也從未放棄相信原始方舟位於其表面之下。也許諾亞方舟掃描的發現，利用以前探險中不存在的技術，可能會影響對可能隱藏歷史上最重要的遺蹟之一的位置進行更深入檢查的結論。

Has the location of Noah’s Ark finally been proven using 3D scans?

The Torah tells us that the Ark landed on the hills of Mt. Ararat, a dormant volcano near the east border of Turkey. The Durupinar site is approximately 30 km south of that mountain.

By HADAS LABRISCH

OCTOBER 3, 2021 07:32

‘NOAH’S ARK on Mount Ararat’ (1570) by Flemish painter Simon de Myle.

(photo credit: Wikimedia Commons)

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In 1959, a cartographer named Ilhan Durupinar discovered a boat-shaped footprint on top of a mountain in the Dogubayazit region in Turkey. Now, American researchers and Turkish scientists of Noah's Ark Discovered Project claim that they have proof that the biblical relic lies beneath the surface of Durupinar.

Using 3D scans of GPR and ERT technology, the researchers claim that they uncovered a man-made boat structure beneath the ground, before beginning any excavation. The formation identified in the scans, according to the team, matches the dimensions of the Genesis description of Noah’s Ark.

This week’s Torah portion tells the story of God’s instructions to Noah to build an ark and carry with him a male and female of each animal. The text carries specific descriptions regarding the size and structure of the vessel: length 300 cubits, breadth 50 cubits, and height 30 cubits. Cubits, a biblical term called Ama in Hebrew, means “forearm,” and is estimated to be approximately 18 inches, or about half a meter long.

The Torah further tells us that the Ark landed on the hills of Mt. Ararat, a dormant volcano near the east border of Turkey. The Durupinar site is approximately 30 km south of the mountain.

Researcher Andrew Jones and lead scientist Dr. Fethi Ahmet Yüksel of the Department of Geophysical Engineering, Applied Geophysics Department of Istanbul University believe that the results of the scans indicate a man-made artifact beneath the surface that could well be the Ark, and are eager to continue studying the location.

“The new GPR data shows parallel lines and angular structures 8 to 20 feet down,” claim the team on their project website. “These parallel lines and right angles below the surface are something you would not expect to see in a natural, geologic formation.”

Mount Ararat overlooking a field of eroded khachkars (Armenian cross-stones) in Western Armenia, from the book ‘100 (1915-2015)'. (credit: HRAIR ‘HAWK’ KHATCHERIAN)

However, the scientific world is not keen to accept their assumption. Since the original discovery by the Turkish captain, the Durupinar site has been repeatedly questioned and refuted as the location of Noah’s Ark. In the 1970s through to the 1990s, American researcher Ron Wyatt studied the site and published his discoveries, which geologist Lorence Collins then systematically refuted in 1996 in the Journal of Geosciences Education, dismissing the findings as natural rock formation with an unusual structure.

The spikes and wanes in public and academic interest were enough to lead the Turkish Ministry of Culture to place the site under national protection and label it a national park, but no official excavation projects have been approved. Several independent teams are studying the site simultaneously, both Turkish and foreign.

Even after the original discovery was deemed superficial and a natural phenomenon, some never gave up on the belief that the original Ark lies beneath its surface. Perhaps the findings by Noah's Ark Scans, making use of technology that didn't exist during previous expeditions, could sway the verdict regarding deeper examination of the location that could potentially be hiding one of the most significant relics in history.

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