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2025 Predictions: ROI, Decacorns, and a Changing Job Market
I just shared my three big predictions for 2025 in my latest video. Here's a quick summary, but I’d love to hear your thoughts—especially if you disagree with any of them!
* ROI Will Trump AIBy 2025, companies will focus more on ROI over pure AI hype. While AI could contribute $16 trillion to the economy by 2030 (according to PwC), most companies have struggled to see returns that justify their investments. Expect CFOs to demand clear profitability or massive cost reductions, particularly in new product categories. Stats back this up: 80% of growth from leading companies over the last decade came from entering new categories (Harvard Business Review).
* A New AI Consumer Decacorn Will EmergeThe consumer AI space is ripe for a breakout moment. While enterprise AI has dominated, 2025 will likely bring a brand-new iconic company in the consumer AI market—something as transformative as ChatGPT but potentially in a marketplace format. My bold bet? This won't come from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google but from a partnership model, much like Intel and Windows in the 1990s.
* The Hiring Market Will NormalizeThe LinkedIn Workforce Report suggests a return to a balanced hiring market after the turbulence of 2022–2023. From my coaching conversations, I’ve seen PMs landing offers faster recently, indicating a brighter outlook for 2025.
Bonus Prediction: Office Space Demand Is ReturningCompanies are growing and pushing for more in-person collaboration. JLL reports an increase in demand for office space. Case in point: the WeWork in Palo Alto is now fully booked for monthly memberships—something unimaginable just a couple of years ago.
What do you think—am I spot on, or is one of these predictions way off? Let me know in the comments!p.s. I just launched a new experiment around enabling more PM peer advice called Tom’s List. If you’re a US based, technology industry PM with 3-33 years of PM experience, I encourge you to join (it’s free)!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit firesidepm.substack.com
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By Tom Leung
5
22 ratings
I just shared my three big predictions for 2025 in my latest video. Here's a quick summary, but I’d love to hear your thoughts—especially if you disagree with any of them!
* ROI Will Trump AIBy 2025, companies will focus more on ROI over pure AI hype. While AI could contribute $16 trillion to the economy by 2030 (according to PwC), most companies have struggled to see returns that justify their investments. Expect CFOs to demand clear profitability or massive cost reductions, particularly in new product categories. Stats back this up: 80% of growth from leading companies over the last decade came from entering new categories (Harvard Business Review).
* A New AI Consumer Decacorn Will EmergeThe consumer AI space is ripe for a breakout moment. While enterprise AI has dominated, 2025 will likely bring a brand-new iconic company in the consumer AI market—something as transformative as ChatGPT but potentially in a marketplace format. My bold bet? This won't come from OpenAI, Anthropic, or Google but from a partnership model, much like Intel and Windows in the 1990s.
* The Hiring Market Will NormalizeThe LinkedIn Workforce Report suggests a return to a balanced hiring market after the turbulence of 2022–2023. From my coaching conversations, I’ve seen PMs landing offers faster recently, indicating a brighter outlook for 2025.
Bonus Prediction: Office Space Demand Is ReturningCompanies are growing and pushing for more in-person collaboration. JLL reports an increase in demand for office space. Case in point: the WeWork in Palo Alto is now fully booked for monthly memberships—something unimaginable just a couple of years ago.
What do you think—am I spot on, or is one of these predictions way off? Let me know in the comments!p.s. I just launched a new experiment around enabling more PM peer advice called Tom’s List. If you’re a US based, technology industry PM with 3-33 years of PM experience, I encourge you to join (it’s free)!
This is a public episode. If you would like to discuss this with other subscribers or get access to bonus episodes, visit firesidepm.substack.com