LeadPrompt Podcast

2025 recap and 2026 predictions (TLP 2025w52)

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This episode of The Tech Leader Podcast provides a comprehensive look at the shifting tides of the global tech and political landscape as we transition into 2026. After a remarkably accurate set of predictions for 2025 - confirmed by Google Gemini - the host dives into what the "Year of the Correction" might look like.

From the cooling of the AI investment frenzy to the strategic retreats of automotive giants like Mercedes-Benz, this episode explores the friction between high-tech ambition and market reality.

Key Discussion Points

  • 2025 Retrospective: A 100% "Pass" rate on previous predictions, including the return of US protectionism, the stagnation of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), and the "reality check" for AGI.
  • The AI Investment Bubble: Why OpenAI’s $58 billion in total funding might not see a return for decades, and why the market is overdue for a sharp correction.
  • The End of the "Free" AI Era: Predictions on how Google and other AI providers will integrate paid advertising directly into prompt interfaces to cover massive compute costs.
  • The EV Slowdown: Analyzing why market forces are winning over regulations, leading manufacturers like Mercedes-Benz to pivot back to high-tech combustion engines.
  • Edge AI & Local Models: The rise of the "128 Gig PC" and the shift toward "Agentic AI" that runs locally on your own hardware rather than in the cloud.
  • Germany’s Energy Crisis: How "creeping deindustrialization" and high utility costs are reshaping the political map of Europe's largest economy.

    • Memorable Quotes

    • "AGI is near is the new Singularity is near. While recent growth in generative AI has been remarkable, we are still decades out from AGI."
    • "Google is an ad company that pretends to be a search company... expect to see more ads in your favourite AI prompt interfaces in the near future."
    • "In the low-regulated US market, where demand is driven by market factors rather than regulation, [EV] demand is softening. Market forces will win out in all regions eventually."
    • "The bureaucracy proved too entrenched to be dismantled in the aggressive timeline proposed." (On the dissolution of DOGE in late 2025).

      • Show notes are here: https://techleader.pro/a/720-2025-recap-and-2026-predictions-(TLP-2025w52)

      Keywords:

      2026 Predictions, Tech Trends 2026, AI Investment, OpenAI Revenue, Google Gemini, AGI Reality Check, EV Market Trends, Mercedes-Benz Strategy, German Energy Crisis, Edge AI, Local LLM, Agentic AI, 128GB PC, Tech Leader Podcast, Donald Trump 2025, US Protectionism, DOGE Department of Government Efficiency, Tech Industry Recap, Future of AI Ads, AI Infrastructure Costs, Silicon Valley Economics, Deindustrialization, EU Politics 2026, AfD Germany, EV Sales Decline, Combustion Engines, High-Tech Hardware, Generative AI Bubble, Tech Leadership

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      LeadPrompt PodcastBy John Collins