The US housing industry is entering 2025 with a mix of challenges and potential improvements. Recent market movements indicate that mortgage rates have risen, with the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaching 7.08% as of early January 2025, despite three rate cuts from the Fed since September 2024[1]. This increase in mortgage rates, combined with ever-rising home prices, continues to discourage would-be homebuyers.
Home prices have continued to appreciate, with a 4.7% increase in November 2024 compared to the previous year, marking the 17th consecutive month of year-over-year national median existing home sales price gains[4]. Forecasts predict a 3.0% average increase in home prices for 2025, though some experts, like Zillow, forecast a more modest 2.6% increase[5].
Inventory levels remain a concern, with a 3.8-month supply at the end of November 2024, which is still below the 5 to 6 months typically needed for a balanced market[1]. However, there are signals that seller volume may start to return to normal levels in 2025, potentially easing inventory constraints and providing more options for buyers[5].
The market has seen a slowdown in buyer activity, with homes staying on the market 20% longer than a year ago due to high mortgage rates[5]. Despite these challenges, home sales momentum is building, with NAR's existing-home sales numbers showing an increase in November 2024 for the first time since 2021[1].
Industry leaders are responding to current challenges by focusing on new construction to increase inventory. According to Greg McBride, CFA, chief financial analyst for Bankrate, most of the increase in inventory will come from new construction, as mortgage rates won't fall enough to spur an increase in existing-home inventory[1].
In regional markets, cities like Buffalo, New York, have been named the hottest housing market for 2025 by Zillow, with high demand and limited supply causing home prices to soar[5].
Overall, the US housing industry in 2025 is expected to be challenging, with elevated mortgage rates and rising home prices affecting affordability. However, there are signs of improvement, including growing inventory and a potential stabilization in home value appreciation. Industry leaders are focusing on new construction and anticipating future regulatory relief to address current challenges.
This content was created in partnership and with the help of Artificial Intelligence AI