The Validus View

2026 Market Outlook: What Matters for Private Capital


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The playbook for building portfolios is changing fast. Diversification strategies that worked for years are breaking down, volatility is back and geopolitical tensions are forcing investors to rethink everything from hedging strategies to where they hold their assets.

In this episode, CEO Kevin Lester sits down with Kambiz Kazemi (Chief Investment Officer) and Shane O'Neill (Global Head of Capital Markets) to break down Validus's 2026 Risk Outlook. They dig into developments that are already setting the tone in 2026, from Kevin Warsh's appointment at the Fed to why we are already seeing adjustments to FX hedges. The conversation covers gold's surprising role right now and how AI is moving beyond tech stocks to reshape entire economies.


In a look ahead at deeper structural shifts: the discussion veers to why the US, Europe and China are moving at different speeds, how labour markets are being redrawn and why capital controls might become a real concern for global investors. View the episode for a practical look at navigating markets when the playbook is being rewritten.


Key highlights

  1. How the Fed's balance sheet decisions could move markets more than rate cuts
  2. What the rally in gold and silver tells us about what investors are really worried about
  3. Why clients are rethinking their FX and interest rate hedging strategies as volatility picks up
  4. How artificial intelligence is starting to influence productivity, jobs and inflation - not just stock prices
  5. Why rising geopolitical tensions mean investors need to consider the jurisdiction in which their money sits, not just what it's invested in

...more
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The Validus ViewBy Validus Risk Management