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2026 vision: rate cuts, tight spreads, and AI’s growing pains
Is the AI boom testing market limits, or uncovering new opportunities in fixed income for 2026?
Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores the outlook for U.S. fixed income markets in 2026, focusing on Federal Reserve policy, the credit cycle, and the impact of surging AI-driven debt issuance.
- We expect a hawkish rate cut to close 2025, signaling a dovish path ahead, with more cuts expected in 2026 as U.S. growth reaccelerates.
- Despite tight spreads, stronger credit quality and rising volatility create opportunities for idiosyncratic spread compression trades.
- Record AI-related debt issuance may lead to short-term dislocations, but diversified funding channels and sustainable growth in AI point to resilience.
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By RBC Global Asset Management (U.S.) Inc.Is the AI boom testing market limits, or uncovering new opportunities in fixed income for 2026?
Anne Greenwood, Institutional Portfolio Manager on RBC GAM's BlueBay U.S. Fixed Income team, explores the outlook for U.S. fixed income markets in 2026, focusing on Federal Reserve policy, the credit cycle, and the impact of surging AI-driven debt issuance.
- We expect a hawkish rate cut to close 2025, signaling a dovish path ahead, with more cuts expected in 2026 as U.S. growth reaccelerates.
- Despite tight spreads, stronger credit quality and rising volatility create opportunities for idiosyncratic spread compression trades.
- Record AI-related debt issuance may lead to short-term dislocations, but diversified funding channels and sustainable growth in AI point to resilience.