Optimism surrounding the Covid vaccine coupled with a crude oil production cut from Saudi Arabia have lifted the price of Brent by about 7% since the start of the year, adding to a 25% surge in the last three months of 2020. But with many economies still in full lockdown, demand for oil is expected to be weak over the next few months while higher prices could encourage some producers to pump more than agreed. So are the gains justified or has the rally gone too far? And how will the rest of the commodities complex perform this year? Warren Patterson, ING’s Head of Commodities Strategy in Singapore, shares his thoughts.