Twenty-three million dollars is flooding Federal Reserve prediction markets on Kalshi, but the real action isn't the boring ninety-eight-cent rate hold contract. Traders are betting on whether Jerome Powell says Trump out loud during his press conference Tuesday, priced at nineteen cents despite Powell never once mentioning the name in December transcripts while discussing tariff risks. Meanwhile, Trump deportation markets on Polymarket collapsed to three-point-six cents as traders bet on hitting two hundred fifty thousand removals, a pace never sustained in modern history and plagued by definitional chaos that official metrics can't even track consistently.