Today is January 25 and the Navigate the Chaos question to consider is "How often are you certain?" In Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Philip Tetlock concluded: “The average expert was found to be only slight more accurate than a dart-throwing chimpanzee. Many experts would have done better if they had made random guesses.” American choreographer Agnes de Mille noted “Living is a form of not being sure, not knowing what next or how. The moment you know how, you begin to die a little. The artist never entirely knows. We guess. We may be wrong, but we take leap after leap in the dark.”