Metamuse

29 // Thinking in probabilities with Taimur Abdaal


Listen Later

Probabilistic modeling is useful for answering all kinds of questions, from assessing financial risk to making engineering time estimates. Yet spreadsheets are poor at this job, which is why Taimur and his colleagues are building Casual. Taimur talks with Mark and Adam about ranges as an intuitive way to estimate; the usefulness of Monte Carlo simulations; and the role of math in dating cave paintings.

Discuss this episode in the Muse community

Follow @MuseAppHQ on Twitter

Show notes
  • Taimur Abdaal
  • Casual
  • Not Overthinking
  • Airtable
  • Drake‘s equation
  • line of best fit
  • “not even wrong”
  • Flatland
  • Monte Carlo simulation
  • R
  • closed-form solution
  • RoboCup
  • Slack (management book)
  • queueing theory
  • The Principles of Product Development Flow
  • tail risk
  • expected value
  • gambler’s fallacy
  • distribution shapes e.g. bell curve
  • fan chart
  • Samo Burja of Bismark Analysis
  • meta-analysis
  • preregistered studies
  • confidence interval
  • false positive, false negative
  • onboarding episode
  • A/A testing
  • carcinization
  • combinatorics
  • two-tailed test
  • ...more
    View all episodesView all episodes
    Download on the App Store

    MetamuseBy Adam Wiggins, Mark McGranaghan

    • 4.9
    • 4.9
    • 4.9
    • 4.9
    • 4.9

    4.9

    33 ratings


    More shows like Metamuse

    View all
    The Art of Manliness by The Art of Manliness

    The Art of Manliness

    14,230 Listeners

    Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski by Bogumil Baranowski

    Talking Billions with Bogumil Baranowski

    15 Listeners

    What is a Good Life? by Mark McCartney

    What is a Good Life?

    4 Listeners