It is still almost certain that the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee will agree to a fourth hike in the current cycle to curb the rise in inflation when it meets this week. This is despite further warnings of an approaching recession from the institute of Directors.

The cost-of-living crisis is leading to crumbling consumer confidence which, in turn, is hitting retail sales, while uncertainty caused by the conflict in Ukraine is affecting the availability of several products in stores.

The Institute's own measure of economic confidence plummeted from -4 to -36 in the most recent period. This is in measure of the IoD’s members investment intentions over the next year.

One of the major factors in the lead up to any recession in the UK since the 1970s has been a significant fall in the level of business investment as Directors switch from expansive to protective mode.

At this week’s meeting, it is likely that the Bank’s Governor Andrew Bailey will move to dampen market concerns over the level that rates will eventually reach.

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