Imagine you’re trying to fix a plane while it's still in the air. You need the mechanics to keep it flying, but you also need the designers working on the next generation of carbon-neutral aircraft, and the entrepreneurs figuring out how to fund the transition. Usually, these groups just argue—but what if they had a shared language to turn that conflict into a roadmap for systemic change?

This episode explores a foundational paper in the futures field that moves beyond predicting what might happen to focus on how we actually facilitate transformation. The authors present a method for structured dialogue that helps groups navigate the tension between 'business as usual' and the visionary futures we aspire to. Unlike traditional forecasting that treats the future as a distant destination, this approach views the future as a quality already present in our current actions, allowing us to identify which innovations are merely propping up old systems and which are truly paving the way for the new.

Drawing on decades of real-world facilitation, the study unpacks how to develop 'future consciousness'—a collective awareness of the potential for change in the present moment. By distinguishing between incremental fixes and transformative shifts, and by making the power dynamics of different stakeholders explicit, the authors provide a practical toolkit for anyone facing 'wicked' problems. This isn't just about theory; it's about the practical wisdom, or phronesis, required to move from sense-making to strategic action.

Tune in as we unpack how these three horizons can help you find hope and agency in an era of overwhelming complexity.

Ref:
Bill Sharpe, Anthony Hodgson, Graham Leicester, Andrew Lyon, and Ioan Fazey. Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 2016, 47. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08388-210247