Christofer and podcaster Ben Chugg speak about probability and prediction in this episode of Do Explain. They discuss Pascal's mugging, bayesian decision theory, historicism and cliodynamics, AI-risk, immortality, moral cluelessness, and other related topics.

Ben Chugg is a research fellow at Stanford law school. He has a background in math and computer science and, along with Vaden Masrani, hosts the increments podcast. He also writes insightful philosophy articles at Medium.

Website: https://benchugg.com/
Medium: https://benchugg.medium.com/
Twitter: https://twitter.com/BennyChugg
Podcast: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/increments/id1514221797

Vaden Masrani's article series against Longtermism:
https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/82awH6SZDtuHxxzoG/a-sequence-against-strong-longtermism

Timestamps:

(1:54) - Pascal’s mugging

(9:32) [TQ] - What is the proper use of probability?

(20:22) [TQ] - Would you bet that humans will land on Mars by 2030?

(25:02) - Cliodynamics

(34:06) - Chris and Ben psychoanalyse each other

(36:37) [TQ] - What are your thoughts on racism against AI?

(42:16) - Should we want to be immortal?

(49:14) - The importance of solving mental health

(52:40) - Is there meaning to be found in suffering?

(59:30) - The value of loss

(1:05:25) - Moral cluelessness and ‘longtermism’

(1:15:11) - How Effective Altruism could be improved

Support the podcast at:
https://www.patreon.com/doexplain (monthly)
https://ko-fi.com/doexplain (one-time)

Find Christofer on Twitter:
https://twitter.com/ReachChristofer