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NYC’s mayoral odds point to a clear front-runner while policy reality narrows to what can actually pass, led by a likely rent freeze. We then widen to the redistricting fights shaping Congress, ballot measures that set the rules, and why census math outruns slogans.

• betting odds place Mandani far ahead
• rent freeze seen as most viable policy
• execution and board appointments as gatekeepers
• Cuomo gains after Adams exits while Sliwa splits votes
• gerrymandering strategies across Texas and California
• Midwest and Mountain states test map durability
• courts and supermajorities as key constraints
• national seat outlook tilting slightly Republican
• census-driven seat counts and population shifts
• ballot measures on maps, voter ID, taxes, school meals
• practical advice to research records over rhetoric
• upcoming tech and education episodes teased

My sources

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxmayornycparty

https://votehub.com/2025/08/15/2025-redistricting/

https://ballotpedia.org/2025_ballot_measures

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