Futures Research Unpacked

#38 - Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation


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Have you ever felt like your organization is just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic? You’re making incremental improvements, but the underlying system is clearly failing to meet the challenges of a rapidly changing world. This sense of "stuckness" is often the result of a gap between our desire for transformation and our practical ability to facilitate it.

In this episode, we explore a powerful pathways approach designed to bridge that gap. The authors introduce a framework that helps groups navigate "wicked" problems and irreducible uncertainty by mapping out three distinct horizons of change. By situating the present moment in relation to a declining established pattern and an emerging future successor, the practice moves teams from mere forecasting to "future consciousness"—a heightened awareness of the transformative potential already hiding in the present.

The beauty of this method lies in its ability to turn adversarial debates into constructive dialogue. It provides a shared language for the "managers" keeping the current system running, the "visionaries" dreaming of what’s next, and the "entrepreneurs" trying to build the bridge between them. Rather than getting lost in academic abstractions, this practice focuses on practical wisdom, offering a concrete way to identify which innovations will actually lead to a new horizon rather than just propping up the old one.

  • Cultivates "future consciousness" to help participants see and act on future potential within the present moment.
  • Distinguishes between "H2 minus" innovations that reinforce the status quo and "H2 plus" actions that enable genuine systemic renewal.
  • Provides a structured dialogue framework that reduces conflict by legitimizing the distinct roles of managerial, entrepreneurial, and visionary mindsets.
  • Uses tools like "dilemma thinking" to move beyond exclusive choices and toward creative synthesis between competing values.
  • Tune in to discover how to start patterning hope and navigating the messy reality of systemic change.

    Ref:
    Sharpe, B., A. Hodgson, G. Leicester, A. Lyon, and I. Fazey. Three horizons: a pathways practice for transformation. Ecology and Society, 21(2), 2016, 47. https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-08388-210247

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    Futures Research UnpackedBy Wensupu Yang