Several reports have been released by NGOs, financial institutions and investment houses providing their prognosis for the UK economy over the next twelve months.

The verdict is consistently dire, with no one seeing any reason to doubt the Governor of the Bank of England’s forecast that the economy will fall into a fairly deep and long recession which will last at least five quarters beginning in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The economy is clearly facing a number of factors that are difficult to ignore. First, inflation continues to appear to be out of control despite two of the main contributors to headline inflation; Forecourt fuel prices and the wholesale cost of gas beginning to fall.

The price of gas has fallen to a level not seen since the war in Ukraine started, while the forecourt price of a litre of petrol has dropped to around 150p as the oil price hovers around $80 per barrel.

However, as the Bank of England continues to hike interest rates, mortgage payments will continue to rise, while the new financial year will bring increases in council tax driving core inflation higher.

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