Denver Investment Real Estate

#590: New Build Communities Selling 40% Below Cost: Distress Or Opportunity?


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Denver just hit 12,500 active listings while losing 6,500 residents since 2020. This creates a unique moment for Colorado investors. While 79% of property managers report declining rental demand, distressed new build communities are trading at discounts approaching 37% below original cost.

Chris Lopez hosts this month’s Denver real estate market update for October 2025 with Denver’s most experienced real estate panel: Troy Howell from Nova Home Loans, Jeff White from Envision Advisors, and Brandon Scholten from Key Renter Property Management. Together they analyze data showing inventory growth slowing to 14% year over year. New listings dropped 5% and closed sales fell 7%.

Key Market Insights

The panel reveals critical insights you won’t find elsewhere. Condos have seen five consecutive months of price declines. One new build community dropped from $750K per door underwriting to $470K actual sales price. Rental properties in premium locations near Coors Field are leasing for $800 less than previous tenants paid.

Brandon shares that the average tenant credit score has plummeted to 566. Jeff discusses how room-by-room strategies are holding flat when traditional rentals are struggling. The average property takes 27 days to lease with 2.2 price drops.

In This Episode We Cover:

  • Denver inventory trends and what they signal for 2026
  • Population decline patterns across metro counties
  • Distressed new construction deals (37% below cost)
  • Expert predictions: Higher or lower prices next year?
  • 50-year mortgage debate and investor implications
  • Rental market struggles (27 days, multiple price drops)
  • Tenant credit quality hitting new lows
  • Creative financing: $10K down duplex deal breakdown
  • Markets aren’t moving in one direction anymore. This market update for October 2025 shows reality on the ground. Headlines focus on population decline and rental struggles. Smart investors are finding deals in distressed new construction. They’re using creative financing to acquire cash-flowing duplexes. They’re positioning for the next market cycle.

    Watch the YouTube Video
    https://youtu.be/NNoRLnp5ZoE?si=XmJYS8FaQhlk1NJk
    Timestamps

    00:00 – Welcome & October 2025 Market Roundup Introduction
    01:22 – Market Trends: 12,500 Active Listings (Up 14% YOY)
    05:28 – Detached vs Attached: Five Consecutive Condo Price Declines
    09:35– 2026 Price Predictions: Panel Split on Market Direction
    09:35 – Distressed New Builds: Wheat Ridge Deal at 40% Discount
    11:09 – Denver County Population Drops 6,500 Since 2020
    17:16– Work-From-Home Impact: Migration Across Colorado
    19:38 – Office Relocation: Why Businesses Leave Denver
    22:09 – Contrarian View: Buying Opportunities in Denver’s Downturn
    24:35 – Homeowner Equity: 2.8% Seriously Underwater Nationwide
    27:44 – 50-Year Mortgage Debate: $200 Savings vs $300K Interest
    35:26– Rental Market: 26.8 Days Average, 79% Report Lower Demand
    39:35– Credit Score Crisis: Average Tenant Score 566
    42:58 – Aurora Duplex: $580K with $10K Down Using DPA

    Connect with our Guests:

    Jeff White: [email protected]

    Troy Howell: [email protected]

    • LinkedIn: Troy Howell
    • Website: https://www.novahomeloans.com/loan-officer/troy-howell/
    • Brandon Scholten: [email protected]

      • LinkedIn: Brandon Scholten
      • Website: https://keyrenterdenver.com/
      • Links in Podcast

        Denver Post misses 4th month of rent for building bought by city
        Hotel operator Sonder ceasing operations after being dumped by Marriott
        Will a 50-Year Mortgage Make Homes More Affordable? Here’s How It Would Work

        Who is Keyrenter?

        Keyrenter Property Management Denver provides rental solutions for homeowners and real estate investors in the metro area who are interested in transforming their properties into passive income. It offers various services, from property marketing and thorough applicant screening to tenant placement and 24/7 maintenance services. Keyrenter Denver’s team of experts can take the clients’ burden of managing their rental off their hands so they can get back to what matters to them.

        Who is Nova Home Loans?

        For over 40 years, we’ve been focused on helping homeowners find the perfect loan to fit their financial needs and personal goals. Working with NOVA is a personalized experience from initial application to final loan closing and beyond. We will be with you every step of the way toward successful homeownership. Start working with NOVA & Troy Howell today!

        NOVA FINANCIAL & INVESTMENT CORPORATION, DBA NOVA HOME LOANS NMLS 3087/ EQUAL HOUSING OPPORTUNITY/8055 EAST TUFTS AVENUE, SUITE 101/DENVER, CO

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        Denver Investment Real EstateBy Chris Lopez - Denver Investment Broker