Futures Research Unpacked

#61 - Applying CLA to Technology Planning Old "American


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Imagine the internet isn't a cloud or a series of tubes, but a dusty, lawless frontier. Picture covered wagons, gold rushes, and train heists—only here, the "gold" is your intellectual capital, and the "railroads" are fiber-optic trade routes. This metaphor of the American West isn't just for Hollywood; it’s a powerful tool for understanding where our digital world is headed.

In this episode, we unpack Maureen Rhemann’s fascinating application of Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) to technology planning. Rhemann argues that to truly grasp the future of the internet, we have to look past the wiring and circuitry and examine the underlying myths and social behaviors that drive us. By framing cyberspace as a site of "techno-homesteading," she moves beyond dry quantitative models to explore the human stories that will determine if the web continues to boom or eventually goes bust.

Through this lens, the paper explores four provocative scenarios that challenge our assumptions about digital sustainability. By digging into the layers of litany, structural causes, and deep-seated metaphors, Rhemann provides a framework for planners to "truth-test" their strategies against a landscape that is as unpredictable as the old 19th-century frontier.

  • The use of the "American West" as a macro-lens to make abstract technical challenges like bandwidth bottlenecks and cybersecurity relatable and visible.
  • A breakdown of four possible internet trajectories: the Frontier Boom Town, the Trackless Train, the Frontier Stall, and the Western Hold Up.
  • How Causal Layered Analysis (CLA) helps deconstruct the myths—like the idea that double-digit growth is inevitable—that often blind us to emerging risks.
  • The concept of "cyber relocation," where human patterns of settlement, commerce, and even crime are mirrored in the virtual world.
  • Tune in as we explore why the most advanced technology of the 21st century might find its best roadmap in the folklore of the 19th.

    Ref:
    Rhemann, Maureen. Applying CLA to Technology Planning: Old “American West Style” Web Homesteading -- Exploring Metaphoric Allegories to Enrich Four Internet Sustainability Scenarios. Journal of Futures Studies, 20(4), 2016, 99–106. https://doi.org/10.6531/JFS.2016.20(4).E99

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    Futures Research UnpackedBy Wensupu Yang