Welcome to the last First Friday episode of the year. Today, we’ll dive into an unprecedented moment in the U.S. economy: a missing jobs report, a divided Federal Reserve, a sluggish labor market, and a holiday shopping season shaped by AI, bargain hunters, and low consumer confidence.

In this episode, we cover:

Missing Jobs Report & Data Chaos:
Why the Bureau of Labor Statistics failed to publish two months of data, and why October’s numbers will never be released.

ADP Job Losses & Small Business Strain:
The private-sector payroll report shows major job losses — driven almost entirely by small businesses.

Fed Rate Decision — With No Data:
The Fed meets on December 9–10, forced to make a call on interest rates without official employment data for two months.

Holiday Spending Trends:
Record-breaking Cyber Week sales… paired with declining household budgets and soaring discount-store performance.

AI-Assisted Shopping:
Over half of consumers used AI to hunt deals, compare options, and track price drops — making this the most tech-driven holiday season ever.

Year-End Financial Moves:
Smart steps to take before December 31, including 401(k) contributions, FSA deadlines, tax-loss harvesting, and charitable giving strategies.

We’re missing core economic data — the first time in 12 years a jobs report was delayed, and the first time ever a month will remain permanently blank.

Small businesses are hurting the most, with ADP showing 32,000 job losses driven almost entirely by companies under 49 employees.

The Fed may cut rates, but internal disagreement is unusually public — something not seen since the early 1980s.

Consumers are pessimistic, spending less per household even as total holiday sales hit record highs.

AI is now a mainstream shopping tool, influencing 22% of Cyber Week global sales.

Now’s the time for year-end money housekeeping, especially for workplace retirement plans, FSAs, tax planning, and charitable giving.

Federal Reserve

ADP National Employment Report

Bureau of Labor Statistics 

National Retail Federation holiday data

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index

Adobe Analytics Cyber Week report

Salesforce Shopping Index

Schwab Donor-Advised Fund

ADP Payroll Report:
A monthly estimate of private-sector job creation based on payroll data from ADP clients — often used as a proxy when BLS data is unavailable.

JOLTS:
Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey — measures job openings, hires, and quits.

Consumer Sentiment:
A gauge of how optimistic or pessimistic households feel about their financial future.

Qualified Charitable Distribution (QCD):
A tax-efficient way for people 70½+ to donate money directly from an IRA to a charity.

Tax-Loss Harvesting:
Selling investments at a loss to offset capital gains.

(Timestamps are approximate and may vary due to dynamic ad insertion.)

02:10 — Spotify Wrapped for Podcasters: Surprising Listener Overlap
06:45 — Why We’re Missing the BLS Jobs Report
12:30 — ADP Data: Small Businesses Take the Biggest Hit
18:55 — What the Fed Must Decide Without Official Jobs Numbers
24:40 — Will Mortgage Rates Finally Fall Below 6%?
29:15 — Holiday Spending: Record Sales, Declining Budgets
35:50 — Discount Chains Surge as Middle-Market Retail Slumps
41:20 — AI-Assisted Shopping: Price Tracking, Bots & Personalized Deals
46:10 — Buy Now, Pay Later Hits $10B — Good or Bad?
49:55 — Giving Tuesday’s Big Jump in Donations
53:20 — Year-End Financial Moves: 401(k)s, IRAs, FSAs & Tax Moves
59:00 — Final Thoughts: What This All Means for Your Money in 2026

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