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#687: First Friday: The Retirement Rules That Changed While You Weren’t Looking
In this First Friday episode, we take a comprehensive look at the economic and market developments from January 2026. From market volatility and a surprising new Fed chair nominee to a groundbreaking “baby bonds” program and major housing policy changes, there’s a lot to unpack.
I start with what the stock market pullback means for investors, why the new Fed chair choice caught everyone off guard, and how new policies could reshape retirement savings and homeownership for millions of Americans.
We also explore falling job openings, rising tax refunds, why prediction markets are opening grocery stores, and what it all means for your financial decisions in the months ahead. This episode is packed with actionable insights and real-world context to help you make sense of a rapidly changing economic landscape.
Key Takeaways
The S&P 500 fell 2% in January 2026, marking its worst January performance since 2022, while Bitcoin dropped nearly 10% during the same period.
Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair nominee, is known as an inflation hawk but also advocates for rate cuts, viewing AI as deflationary and wanting to clean up the Fed’s balance sheet.
A new “baby bonds” program will automatically open investment accounts with $1,000 for every child born in the U.S. between 2025-2028, potentially growing to $6,000 by age 18 without additional contributions.
The White House issued an executive order banning large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, though key definitions and implementation details are still being determined.
Job openings fell to 7.6 million in December 2025, the lowest level since 2021, signaling a cooling labor market.
Average tax refunds are up 6.4% year-over-year to $1,963, suggesting Americans may have over-withheld from their paychecks in 2025.
Polymarket, the prediction betting platform, is opening a physical grocery store in New York called “The Market,” where product placement reflects betting odds on various outcomes.
Resources
Afford Anything podcast with Zack Kass
Chapters
Note: Timestamps are approximate and may vary across listening platforms due to dynamically inserted ads.
(0:00) Introduction
(1:03) Why this month’s economy looks different
(5:32) Jobs reports show a stalled labor market
(10:12) Tech spending surges as stocks fall
(12:49) Consumer confidence hits a 12 year low
(16:52) New Fed chair nominee and rate cut outlook
(19:43) Housing market slump and mortgage rates
(22:44) Credit card rate cap and retirement rule changes
(26:51) New Roth 401k catch up mandate explained
(32:00) Child investment accounts and market oddities
Thanks to our sponsors!
Policy Genius
Secure your family’s future with Policygenius. Head to policygenius.com to compare life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.
Mint Mobile
Quit overspending on wireless with 50% off Unlimited premium wireless. Plans start at $15/month at mintmobile.com/paula
Shopify
Start your business today with the industry’s best business partner. Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial today at shopify.com/paula
Wayfair
Get organized, refreshed, and back on track this new year for WAY less. Head to wayfair.com to shop all things home.
Grammarly
In a world of generic AI, don’t sound like everyone else. Download Grammarly for free at grammarly.com.
Ava
Take control of your credit today. Download the Ava app and use my promo code PAULA to get 20% off your first year.
Monarch
Set yourself up for financial success in 2026 with Monarch. Use code AFFORD at monarch.com for half off your first year.
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By In this First Friday episode, we take a comprehensive look at the economic and market developments from January 2026. From market volatility and a surprising new Fed chair nominee to a groundbreaking “baby bonds” program and major housing policy changes, there’s a lot to unpack.
I start with what the stock market pullback means for investors, why the new Fed chair choice caught everyone off guard, and how new policies could reshape retirement savings and homeownership for millions of Americans.
We also explore falling job openings, rising tax refunds, why prediction markets are opening grocery stores, and what it all means for your financial decisions in the months ahead. This episode is packed with actionable insights and real-world context to help you make sense of a rapidly changing economic landscape.
Key Takeaways
The S&P 500 fell 2% in January 2026, marking its worst January performance since 2022, while Bitcoin dropped nearly 10% during the same period.
Kevin Warsh, the new Fed chair nominee, is known as an inflation hawk but also advocates for rate cuts, viewing AI as deflationary and wanting to clean up the Fed’s balance sheet.
A new “baby bonds” program will automatically open investment accounts with $1,000 for every child born in the U.S. between 2025-2028, potentially growing to $6,000 by age 18 without additional contributions.
The White House issued an executive order banning large institutional investors from purchasing single-family homes, though key definitions and implementation details are still being determined.
Job openings fell to 7.6 million in December 2025, the lowest level since 2021, signaling a cooling labor market.
Average tax refunds are up 6.4% year-over-year to $1,963, suggesting Americans may have over-withheld from their paychecks in 2025.
Polymarket, the prediction betting platform, is opening a physical grocery store in New York called “The Market,” where product placement reflects betting odds on various outcomes.
Resources
Afford Anything podcast with Zack Kass
Chapters
Note: Timestamps are approximate and may vary across listening platforms due to dynamically inserted ads.
(0:00) Introduction
(1:03) Why this month’s economy looks different
(5:32) Jobs reports show a stalled labor market
(10:12) Tech spending surges as stocks fall
(12:49) Consumer confidence hits a 12 year low
(16:52) New Fed chair nominee and rate cut outlook
(19:43) Housing market slump and mortgage rates
(22:44) Credit card rate cap and retirement rule changes
(26:51) New Roth 401k catch up mandate explained
(32:00) Child investment accounts and market oddities
Thanks to our sponsors!
Policy Genius
Secure your family’s future with Policygenius. Head to policygenius.com to compare life insurance quotes from top companies and see how much you could save.
Mint Mobile
Quit overspending on wireless with 50% off Unlimited premium wireless. Plans start at $15/month at mintmobile.com/paula
Shopify
Start your business today with the industry’s best business partner. Sign up for your one-dollar-per-month trial today at shopify.com/paula
Wayfair
Get organized, refreshed, and back on track this new year for WAY less. Head to wayfair.com to shop all things home.
Grammarly
In a world of generic AI, don’t sound like everyone else. Download Grammarly for free at grammarly.com.
Ava
Take control of your credit today. Download the Ava app and use my promo code PAULA to get 20% off your first year.
Monarch
Set yourself up for financial success in 2026 with Monarch. Use code AFFORD at monarch.com for half off your first year.