Round One Rookie Drafts in the Past 10 Seasons

Hello Heat Seekers, welcome to episode 79 of Sully’s 2 Cents Dynasty Fantasy Football podcast. I am your host Rob Sullivan.

So, a few episodes ago, episode 76 to be exact I discussed rookie fever, and I specifically used the 1.06 draft slot vs. Lamar Jackson.  That episode it would appear accomplished a few things, 1. I was dead wrong on my Lamar Jackson value, and 2, it appears that you the listeners enjoyed it. 

I am going to take that a little further and break down each draft slot in the first round, hit values and all.  Today I tackle 1.01-1.06 and the next episode I will wrap it up with picks 1.07-1.12.

So, Just when you thought I was done rambling on about Hit rate metrics, here we go again. Quick refresher, A hit season is any QB that has had a top 12 season, RB that has had a top 24 season, top 36 season for WR, and top 12 for the TE’s.  From 2010-2019 there were 779 skill position players drafted 120 were first round selections.

1.01

Dating back to 2010 there have been 5 RB and 5 WR selected in the 1.01 position.  The average PPR points per season for the 1.01’s from 2010-2019 is 206.66 points.  249.68 for the running backs and 163.65 for the WR’s.

2010 – Dez Bryant

Dez played 8 seasons in Dallas and averaged 214.14 PPR a season.  He finished as a top 12 WR 3 straight seasons from 2012-2014 included a career high 316 points in 2014.  In total Dez had 4 hit seasons.

2011- AJ Green

Green delivered a hit season as a rookie in and every season after that until a 9-game injury shortened 2018 season.  He has been a WR1 4 times and enters his 2020 season with a career average season total  233.25 PPR points

2012 – Trent Richardson

T-Rich was an RB1 in his rookie season posting 254.7 PPR points, on the strength of 11 touchdowns.  After two games in his sophomore season he was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Indianapolis Colts for a 2014 1st round pick that ended up being QB Johnny Manziel.  T-Rich finished 2013 as RB32 and 2014 as RB36.  IN 2015 he was waived by the Colts, signed with Oakland, and was released prior to the start of the season. Signed and released without appearing in a game in 2016 was the last we saw of him in the NFL.

2013- Tavon Austin

Austin started his career in St. Louis and after 5 seasons in St. Louis and Los Angeles, signed with the Cowboys for the past two seasons.  His best season was 2015 in which he posted 907 total yards and 9 TD’s 104 touches.  His WR28 season was the only hit season of his career to date in which he has averaged 98.19 points a season. If you selected Tavon Austin first overall in 2013 like many did, you made the worst 1.01 selection of the decade.

ORCHARD PARK, NY – DECEMBER 11: Sammy Watkins #14 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates a touchdown catch against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the first half at New Era Field on December 11, 2016 in Orchard Park, New York. (Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images) Round One Rookie Drafts in the Past 10 Seasons

2014 – Sammy Watkins

In a star studded WR class it was Watkins that topped them all in ADP and was the 1.01 in 2014.  Watkins was WR27 in 2014 and WR20 in 2015.  He hasn’t delivered a hit season since as he has battled injures and has seen his mailing address change twice.

2015- Todd Gurley

Gurley has delivered a hit season in all 5 of his seasons including 3 RB1 seaso...