Most policy and decision-makers struggle with the outside world due to its complexity and non-linearity of the risk factors that impact our lives.  We discuss how people simplify this world through the use of the spreadsheet.  We discuss, as an example, how purchasers of restaurants use their spreadsheet to eek out as much value right up to the point their paying customers notice.  We end by talking about the law of unintended consequences that led to the 1700s gin craze.